17 Oct
Troyes vs Lens: AI prediction and betting pick
On 17 October, Troyes host Lens. The AI models' pick is Lens to win at 1.81: 9 of 16 models chose it.
- Ligue 1, matchday 7 of 34
- +11°, cloudy
- Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
published UTC
AI models' pick: Lens to win
1.81AI models' pick · 9 of 16 for this bet, 7 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
likely score
1:2 9%0:2 7%2:1 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 3 days the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Lens: 1.81 → 1.81 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Troyes 3.98 → 4.00, Draw 3.85 → 3.88, Lens 1.81 → 1.81.
Price changes
| When | Troyes | Draw | Lens · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00−0.01 | 3.88 | 1.81 | |
| We published a Lens win at 1.81 | |||
| 4.01 | 3.88+0.02 | 1.81 | |
| 4.01+0.03 | 3.86+0.01 | 1.81 | |
| 3.98opened | 3.85opened | 1.81opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Lens win. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Lens −1 and Lens −1.5. 5 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 2 went for both teams to score.
- 7 of 162our betodds 1.81ChatGPT
GeminiKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLM
SonarNemotron Super - 1 of 16H2 (−1)same directionodds 2.38MiniMax
- 1 of 16H2 (−1.5)same directionodds 3.07Mistral
- 5 of 16O 2.5odds 1.57ClaudeDeepSeek
Grok
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 2 of 16BTTSodds 1.53QwenXiaomi MiMo
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 13.10 at 16:02 UTC
Troyes sit 17th with four points after six rounds, and home form offers little comfort: one draw and two defeats, 0.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per game, with four blanks already this season. Lens are tenth on seven points, and the head-to-heads lean heavily their way — in the last 10 meetings Troyes have two wins, one draw and seven defeats, Lens winning 4-2 in the Coupe de France in February among them. Over the past two days the odds have drifted against the hosts, while the price on the visitors has held. Our pick is Lens to win at 1.81.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is that Lens have not won on the road this autumn: a draw and two defeats, 1.3 goals scored and 2 conceded, and no clean sheets. There is also the European week to weigh up — after the Champions League the side that travels to Troyes could be a much-changed one, and the hosts, in their position, have nothing left to lose.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Troyesno absences listed
Lensno absences listed
managers: Stephane Dumont · Yannick Cahuzac · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Troyes| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Marseille | H | 0:2xG 1.1–1.3 | L |
| 02.10 | Dijonclub friendly | A | 2:2 | D |
| 19.09 | Angers | A | 0:2xG 1.0–2.3 | L |
| 13.09 | Lille | A | 0:2xG 0.4–1.6 | L |
| 06.09 | Strasbourg | H | 2:6xG 2.9–3.0 | L |
| 29.08 | Lorient | A | 2:1xG 2.1–1.1 | W |
Lens| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10 | Lyon | H | 2:1xG 1.3–1.0 | W |
| 02.10 | Standard Liegeclub friendly | A | 2:0 | W |
| 18.09 | Monaco | A | 1:2xG 1.2–1.8 | L |
| 13.09 | Le Mans | A | 2:2xG 1.6–2.6 | D |
| 10.09 | Slavia PragueChampions League | A | 3:2 | W |
| 05.09 | Lorient | H | 0:1xG 1.2–1.6 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Ligue 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.7 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.7 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.2 / 1.8 | 2.1 / 1.7 | 1.6 |
| shots | 14.8 / 12.3 | 14.8 / 11.5 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 2.8 / 5 | 6.5 / 5 | 4.8 |
| corners | 7.3 / 1.8 | 7 / 3.2 | 4.8 |
| fouls | 12.3 / 13.2 | 11.7 / 13.2 | 11.9 |
| yellow cards | 1.5 / 1.2 | 2 / 1.3 | 1.6 |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | |
| both scored | 33% | 83% | |
| clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0.7 / 2.7 | 1.3 / 2 | |
| average total | 3.3 | 3.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| both scored | 33% | 100% | |
- Troyes score less than the league average: 0.7 vs 1.5
- Lens score more than the league average: 1.8 vs 1.5
- Troyes: 4 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Troyes, away games only for Lens
Head to head
2–1–7Troyes wins · draws · Lens wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes vs Lens | 2:4 | 04.02.26 | Coupe de France |
| Troyes vs Lens | 1:1 | 28.01.23 | |
| Lens vs Troyes | 1:0 | 09.09.22 | |
| Troyes vs Lens | 1:3 | 14.05.22 | |
| Lens vs Troyes | 4:0 | 05.11.21 | |
| Lens vs Troyes | 1:0 | 04.02.20 | Ligue 2 |
| Troyes vs Lens | 2:0 | 24.08.19 | Ligue 2 |
| Troyes vs Lens | 1:2 | 13.08.19 | Coupe de la Ligue |
| Troyes vs Lens | 1:0 | 28.01.19 | Ligue 2 |
| Lens vs Troyes | 2:0 | 18.08.18 | Ligue 2 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2-2-2 | 5–7 | 8 | WWLDL |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2-1-3 | 11–10 | 7 | WLDLL |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2-1-3 | 11–12 | 7 | LLDWW |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2-0-4 | 8–16 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1-1-4 | 4–13 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0-2-4 | 4–8 | 2 | LLDLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1510
- 16-3011
- 31-4513
- 46-6004
- 61-7500
- 76-9015
- 0-1510
- 16-3000
- 31-4533
- 46-6042
- 61-7512
- 76-9032
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
