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Belgium vs France: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 28 September, Belgium host France in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is France to win at 1.89: 10 of 16 models chose it, 2 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Rade Obrenovic
- Nations League, matchday 2 of 6
published UTC
AI models' pick: France to win
1.89AI models' pick · 10 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 8 won · 7 lost · 1 void · −0.04 units All results
AI models
- 102 — matches our betodds 1.89ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, Mistral, Sonar, Nemotron Ultra
- 3BTTSodds 1.47Claude, GLM, MiniMax
- 1X2 — matches our betodds 1.28Xiaomi MiMo
- 1H1 (+1)odds 1.51Dots3-Note
- 1H2 (-1) — matches our betodds 2.56Nemotron Super
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — France: 1.89 → 1.89 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Belgium 3.57 → 3.56, Draw 3.92 → 3.92, France 1.89 → 1.89.
our price: 1 3.85 · X 4.17 · 2 2.00 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side
Price changes
| When | Belgium | Draw | France · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| We published a France win at 1.89 | |||
| 3.56+0.03 | 3.92+0.01 | 1.89−0.01 | |
| 3.53−0.04 | 3.91−0.01 | 1.90+0.01 | |
| 3.57opened | 3.92opened | 1.89opened | |
All snapshots (6)
| When | Belgium | Draw | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.56 | 3.92 | 1.89 | |
| 3.56 | 3.92 | 1.89 | |
| 3.56 | 3.92 | 1.89 | |
| 3.56 | 3.92 | 1.89 | |
| 3.53 | 3.91 | 1.90 | |
| 3.57 | 3.92 | 1.89 |
AI prediction and analysis
10 of 16 AI models went for a France win. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: France not losing and France −1. 3 more went for both teams to score. One more went for Belgium +1. 13 are betting on the match result and 3 on goals.
- 10 of 162our betodds 1.89ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashMistral
SonarNemotron Ultra - 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.47ClaudeGLMMiniMax
- 1 of 16X2same directionodds 1.28Xiaomi MiMo
- 1 of 16H1 (+1)odds 1.51Dots3-Note
- 1 of 16H2 (-1)same directionodds 2.56Nemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 27.09 at 09:54 UTC
France have taken the last five meetings with Belgium, and not just at home: in the most recent one Les Bleus won 2-1, and before that came 2-0 and 1-0 at the Euros. The market reads it the same way — 1.89 for the visitors, 3.56 for the hosts, and the prices have barely twitched in the past day. Both sides sit on 3 points in the Nations League table after the opening round, so that price leans on the quality of the squads and the history of the fixture rather than on the standings.
The caveat is that France have usually won these games by a single goal, and the Red Devils' attack can force an open game on home soil. One mistake at the back and the evening turns nervous. Even so, we're backing France to win at 1.89.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Most likely outcome: France to win.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Belgium| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09 | Italy | A | 2:0 | W |
| 10.07 | SpainWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.4–2.1 | L |
| 07.07 | USAWorld Cup | A | 4:1xG 2.0–0.6 | W |
| 01.07 | SenegalWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 1.8–3.5 | W |
| 27.06 | New ZealandWorld Cup | A | 5:1xG 3.6–0.2 | W |
| 21.06 | IranWorld Cup | H | 0:0xG 1.8–0.6 | D |
France| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09 | Turkey | A | 1:0 | W |
| 18.07 | EnglandWorld Cup | H | 4:6xG 2.9–2.6 | L |
| 14.07 | SpainWorld Cup | H | 0:2xG 0.3–1.6 | L |
| 09.07 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 2:0xG 3.7–0.1 | W |
| 04.07 | ParaguayWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.4–0.1 | W |
| 30.06 | SwedenWorld Cup | H | 3:0xG 3.2–0.7 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–0–5Belgium wins · draws · France wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs France | 1:2 | 14.10.24 | |
| France vs Belgium | 2:0 | 09.09.24 | |
| France vs Belgium | 1:0 | 01.07.24 | Euro |
| Belgium vs France | 2:3 | 07.10.21 | |
| France vs Belgium | 1:0 | 10.07.18 | World Cup |
- both scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 5
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–0 | 3 | W |
| 2 | France | 1 | 1-0-0 | 1–0 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Turkey | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
