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Belgium vs Turkey 3:0: Nations League result and odds
Belgium vs Turkey finished 3:0 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Belgium −1 handicap at 1.76, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Belgium −1 handicap
1.76Asian handicap: the bet wins if Belgium win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 7 of 16 on this bet · 6 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day a Turkey win shortened from 5.61 to 5.45 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementTurkey 5.61 → 5.45 over the day · 2 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Belgium win: from 1.47 to 1.50.
Price changes
| When | Belgium | Draw | Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50+0.03 | 4.61−0.05 | 5.45−0.16 | |
| 1.47opened | 4.66opened | 5.61opened |
How the match went
Kevin De Bruyne settled this one on his own before Romelu Lukaku added a late third. He opened the scoring after ten minutes, teed up by Dodi Lukebakio, and Belgium led 1-0 at half-time. De Bruyne struck again on 59 minutes, assisted by Youri Tielemans, and Lukaku, on as a substitute, made it three on 76 minutes, set up by Charles De Ketelaere. Turkey lost 0-3 despite having more of the shots, 23 to Belgium's 17. Only eight of those were on target against ten for Belgium. Possession split 54% to 46% in Belgium's favour. Our Belgium -1 handicap bet at 1.76 landed. Belgium had gone off at 1.50 to win before kick-off, the draw near 4.61 and Turkey near 5.45. The under bet on the 3.5 goals line came in, and since only one side scored, the both-teams-to-score "no" priced at 2.42 also paid off.
- 10'Kevin De Bruyne (Dodi Lukebakio)1:0
- 26'Dodi Lukebakio YC
- 30'Youri Tielemans YC
- 46'on Yunus Akgün, off Barış Alper Yılmaz
- 56'Abdülkerim Bardakcı YC
- 59'Kevin De Bruyne (Youri Tielemans)2:0
- 61'on Romelu Lukaku, off Dodi Lukebakio
- 61'on Roméo Lavia, off Hans Vanaken
- 66'on İlhan Fakılı, off Oğuz Aydın
- 67'on Deniz Gül, off Kerem Aktürkoğlu
- 71'Merih Demiral YC
- 73'on Salih Özcan, off Bartuğ Elmaz
- 75'on Leandro Trossard, off Mika Godts
- 76'Romelu Lukaku (Charles De Ketelaere)3:0
- 80'Kevin De Bruyne YC
- 82'on Loïs Openda, off Kevin De Bruyne
- 82'on Malick Fofana, off Charles De Ketelaere
- 85'on Demir Ege Tıknaz, off İsmail Yüksek
- 90+2'Nathan Ngoy YC
- 90+2'Arda Güler YC
| Belgium | stat | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | expected goals (xG) | 1.38 |
| 17 | shots | 23 |
| 10 | on target | 8 |
| 54% | possession | 46% |
| 2 | corners | 5 |
| 12 | fouls | 12 |
| 8 | saves | 7 |
| 89% | pass accuracy | 85% |
| 4 | yellow cards | 3 |
| 0.85 | goals prevented | 0.85 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Belgium- 1Senne Lammens8.7
- 5Maxim De Cuyper7.5
- 4Brandon Mechele7.9
- 15Nathan Ngoy7.6
- 21Timothy Castagne7.3
- 7Kevin De Bruyne — highest feed rating in the match9.9
- 8Youri Tielemans7.3
- 20Hans Vanaken6.9
- 22Mika Godts6.9
- 17Charles De Ketelaere7.5
- 14Dodi Lukebakio7.2
- 6Roméo Laviaon 61'6.7
- 9Romelu Lukakuon 61'7.3
- 10Leandro Trossardon 75'6.3
- 19Malick Fofanaon 82'6.5
- 11Loïs Opendaon 82'6.7
- 12Maarten Vandevoordt
- 13Mike Penders
- 2Zeno Debast
- 3Arthur Theate
- 16Koni De Winter
- 18Joaquin Seys
- 23Nicolas Raskin
Turkey- 1Uğurcan Çakır7.5
- 20Ferdi Kadıoğlu6.3
- 14Abdülkerim Bardakcı6.3
- 3Merih Demiral6.5
- 2Zeki Çelik6.9
- 7Kerem Aktürkoğlu6.3
- 16İsmail Yüksek7.2
- 6Bartuğ Elmaz7.3
- 18Oğuz Aydın6.3
- 21Barış Alper Yılmaz6.2
- 10Arda Güler8.5
- 19Yunus Akgünon 46'6.9
- 11İlhan Fakılıon 66'6.9
- 9Deniz Gülon 67'6.7
- 5Salih Özcanon 73'6.6
- 8Demir Ege Tıknazon 85'6.7
- 12Altay Bayındır
- 23Muhammed Şengezer
- 4Emirhan Topçu
- 13Eren Elmalı
- 15Ozan Kabak
- 22Mustafa Eskihellaç
- 17İrfan Can Kahveci
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Belgium −1 — the bet won. 6 more chose close bets in the same direction: Belgium −1.5 and a Belgium win. The other 3 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet, both teams to score and 'both to score — no'.
- 7 of 16H1 (−1)our betodds 1.76ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokKimi
GLM
SonarNemotron Ultrawon - 5 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.23DeepSeekDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistral
Dots3-Notewon - 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.42Qwenwon
- 1 of 161same directionodds 1.47Nemotron Superwon
- 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.57Claudelost
- 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.42Xiaomi MiMowon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:49 UTC
Turkey have taken nothing from their first two rounds and sit fourth in the group, while Belgium are second on three points. The prices back that gap: 1.47 on the hosts against 5.61 on Turkey, with a home win rated at 63%. Our pick is the Belgium -1 handicap at 1.76, a bet the books reckon lands 55% of the time and one that treats you more gently than the straight home win — a victory by exactly one goal returns the stake rather than taking it, and the price is a good deal bigger than 1.47.
Where we could be wrong
Three points from six is not the sort of start that guarantees a win by two or more goals on home soil, and the Red Devils have already lost one of their group games. Turkey need points in a hurry, they see plenty of the ball, and in an open game they can drag an opponent into a shootout, where a lead melts away quickly.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Belgium| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | France | H | 0:1 | L |
| 25.09 | Italy | A | 2:0 | W |
| 10.07 | SpainWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.4–2.1 | L |
| 07.07 | USAWorld Cup | A | 4:1xG 2.0–0.6 | W |
| 01.07 | SenegalWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 1.8–3.5 | W |
| 27.06 | New ZealandWorld Cup | A | 5:1xG 3.6–0.2 | W |
| 21.06 | IranWorld Cup | H | 0:0xG 1.8–0.6 | D |
Turkey| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Italy | H | 1:4 | L |
| 25.09 | France | H | 0:1 | L |
| 26.06 | USAWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 3.0–2.1 | W |
| 20.06 | ParaguayWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 2.2–0.3 | L |
| 14.06 | AustraliaWorld Cup | A | 0:2xG 1.4–1.2 | L |
| 06.06 | Venezuelafriendly | A | 2:1 | W |
| 01.06 | North Macedoniafriendly | H | 4:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2 | 2-0-0 | 2–0 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2–1 | 3 | WL |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–3 | 3 | LW |
| 4 | Turkey | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–5 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
