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Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland 1:0: Nations League result and odds
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland finished 1:0 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.86, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.86AI models' pick · 7 of 15 for this bet, 8 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Bosnia and Herzegovina settled a goalless contest with a stoppage-time penalty: the sides went in level at 0-0, then two VAR reviews followed in the closing stages. The first, on 77 minutes, confirmed a penalty involving Ermedin Demirović; the second, on 83 minutes, overturned a separate award involving Jovo Lukić. From the spot on 84 minutes, Ivan Bašić scored the only goal, 1-0. Poland outplayed the scoreline: 18 shots to nine, four on target to one, 56% possession to 44%, and expected goals of 1.57 against 1.17, yet they finish with nothing. Our bet, under 2.5 goals at 1.86, landed with just the single goal on the night. Before kick-off the market had Bosnia and Herzegovina's win at 2.99, the draw at 3.32 and Poland's win at 2.28.
- 32'Armin Gigovic YC
- 38'Nicola Zalewski YC
- 42'Ermedin Demirović YC
- 63'on Norbert Wojtuszek, off Matty Cash
- 63'on Marcel Regula, off Karol Świderski
- 63'on Esmir Bajraktarević, off Zinedin Smajlovic
- 63'on Benjamin Tahirovic, off Ermin Mahmić
- 76'Tarik Muharemovic YC
- 77'penalty confirmed (VAR) · Ermedin Demirović
- 78'on Samed Baždar, off Haris Tabaković
- 78'on Jovo Lukić, off Ermedin Demirović
- 83'penalty overturned (VAR) · Jovo Lukić
- 83'Jan Bednarek YC
- 84'Ivan Bašić penalty1:0
- 89'on Kacper Urbanski, off Wiktor Nowak
- 89'on Oskar Pietuszewski, off Mateusz Zukowski
- 89'on Stjepan Radeljić, off Armin Gigovic
- 90+1'Norbert Wojtuszek YC
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | stat | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 9 | shots | 18 |
| 1 | on target | 4 |
| 44% | possession | 56% |
| 2 | corners | 8 |
| 12 | fouls | 7 |
| 3 | saves | 1 |
| 84% | pass accuracy | 84% |
| 3 | yellow cards | 3 |
| -0.01 | goals prevented | -0.01 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Bosnia and Herzegovina- 22M. Zlomislic7.8
- 5S. Kolasinac6.6
- 4T. Muharemovic6.8
- 18N. Katic6.8
- 7Z. Smajlovic6.9
- 16E. Mahmic6.0
- 13I. Basic — highest feed rating in the match7.8
- 8A. Gigovic6.3
- 15A. Memic6.4
- 23H. Tabakovic6.4
- 10E. Demirovic6.3
- 12S. Hamzic
- 1M. Jurkas
- 20N. Omerovic
- 21S. Radeljicon 89'6.5
- 2N. Mujakic
- 3A. Malic
- 14I. Sunjic
- 6B. Tahirovicon 63'6.5
- 17A. Hasic
- 19J. Lukicon 78'6.3
- 11E. Bajraktarevicon 63'6.7
- 9S. Bazdaron 78'6.1
Poland- 1M. Bulka6.5
- 19P. Frankowski7.2
- 14J. Kiwior7.2
- 5J. Bednarek6.4
- 2M. Cash6.6
- 16W. Nowak6.7
- 21N. Zalewski6.1
- 10P. Zielinski7.0
- 20S. Szymanski6.8
- 11K. Swiderski6.5
- 9M. Zukowski6.0
- 12M. Kochalski
- 22S. Abramowicz
- 15T. Puchacz
- 3P. Wisniewski
- 13N. Wojtuszekon 63'5.9
- 4T. Kedziora
- 23K. Potulski
- 6B. Slisz
- 8K. Urbanskion 89'6.2
- 18M. Regulaon 63'6.3
- 17M. Skoras
- 7O. Pietuszewskion 89'6.3
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet won. 4 more bet on a Poland win — the bet lost. The other 4 chose other bets: double chance, both teams to score and a total-goals bet.
- 7 of 15U 2.5our betodds 1.86ChatGPT
GeminiKimiQwenMiniMax
SonarNemotron Ultrawon - 4 of 152odds 2.28
GrokDeepSeek FlashMistralNemotron Superlost - 2 of 151Xodds 1.60Claude
Dots3-Notewon - 1 of 15BTTSodds 1.72Xiaomi MiMolost
- 1 of 15O 2.5odds 1.89
GLMlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:24 UTC
These two met in September and nobody scored, and that recent evidence matters more than the rest of the statistics. The prices barely separate them: 2.99 on Bosnia and Herzegovina, 3.32 for the draw, 2.28 on Poland, while the bookmakers rate under 2.5 goals at exactly 50% — a cagey night and a free-scoring one are worth the same to them. The group is desperately tight, with the hosts on 5 points after three rounds and Poland on 4, so for both sides the cost of a mistake outweighs anything an open game might bring. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.86.
Where we could be wrong
An early goal would wreck that calculation. The previous two meetings, back in 2020, each produced three goals, and the moment Poland go in front, Bosnia and Herzegovina will have to open up. The home side also sit above the visitors and at home they may chase three points rather than defend a clean sheet, and that would give the game a completely different shape.
- 7 of 15 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Bosnia and Herzegovina| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Sweden | H | 1:1 | D |
| 28.09 | Romania | A | 4:2 | W |
| 25.09 | Poland | A | 0:0 | D |
| 02.07 | USAWorld Cup | A | 0:2xG 0.3–0.9 | L |
| 24.06 | QatarWorld Cup | H | 3:1xG 0.7–0.8 | W |
| 18.06 | SwitzerlandWorld Cup | A | 1:4xG 0.2–2.1 | L |
| 12.06 | CanadaWorld Cup | A | 1:1xG 1.0–1.2 | D |
| 06.06 | Panamafriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
Poland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Romania | H | 6:0 | W |
| 28.09 | Sweden | A | 1:3 | L |
| 25.09 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | H | 0:0 | D |
| 03.06 | Nigeriafriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 31.05 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 31.03 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:3xG 1.4–1.5 | L |
| 26.03 | AlbaniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:1 | W |
| 17.11 | MaltaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 3:2xG 1.3–2.1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–1–2Bosnia and Herzegovina wins · draws · Poland wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0:0 | 25.09.26 | |
| Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3:0 | 14.10.20 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland | 1:2 | 07.09.20 |
- both scored in 1 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6–3 | 7 | WWD |
| 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 1-2-0 | 5–3 | 5 | DWD |
| 3 | Poland | 3 | 1-1-1 | 7–3 | 4 | DLW |
| 4 | Romania | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3–12 | 0 | LLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
