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Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Sweden 1:1: Nations League result and odds
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Sweden finished 1:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Sweden to win at 2.08, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Sweden to win
2.08AI models' pick · 5 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day a Sweden win drifted from 2.08 to 2.22 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Sweden: 2.08 → 2.22 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Sweden win) has drifted from 2.08 to 2.22: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Draw | Sweden · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.95−0.22 | 3.42−0.06 | 2.22+0.14 | |
| We published a Sweden win at 2.08 | |||
| 3.17opened | 3.48opened | 2.08opened | |
How the match went
Sweden looked ahead early when Viktor Gyökeres had a goal ruled out by VAR in the 18th minute, but the opener still came through him, converting an assist from Bernhardsson in the 61st minute to put Sweden 1-0 up. Bosnia and Herzegovina levelled through K. Alajbegovic in the 80th minute, and it finished 1-1 after a goalless first half. Sweden had the better underlying numbers, with an expected-goals tally of 1.05 against 0.11. They also had eight shots to four, with four on target to two, yet could not turn that control into victory. We backed Sweden to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina outright at 2.08, a bet that went down. Before kick-off, Bosnia and Herzegovina's win was priced near 2.95, the draw at 3.42, and Sweden shorter at 2.22. The game stayed under the goals line while both teams scored, landing the both-teams-to-score bet at 1.62.
- 18'goal disallowed (VAR) · Viktor Gyökeres
- 31'on E. Smith, off C. Starfelt
- 61'V. Gyokeres (A. Bernhardsson)0:1
- 63'on H. Tabakovic, off E. Dzeko
- 76'on E. Mahmic, off I. Basic
- 76'on J. Lukic, off E. Demirovic
- 76'on L. Bergvall, off B. Zeneli
- 76'on W. Swedberg, off A. Bernhardsson
- 80'K. Alajbegovic1:1
- 87'on Z. Smajlovic, off N. Katic
- 87'on I. Sunjic, off K. Alajbegovic
- 90+5'on K. Sema, off S. Nanasi
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | stat | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| 0.11 | expected goals (xG) | 1.05 |
| 4 | shots | 8 |
| 2 | on target | 4 |
| 51% | possession | 49% |
| 4 | corners | 0 |
| 8 | fouls | 11 |
| 3 | saves | 1 |
| 83% | pass accuracy | 88% |
| -0.59 | goals prevented | -0.59 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Bosnia and Herzegovina- 12S. Hamzic7.3
- 5S. Kolasinac6.5
- 4T. Muharemovic7.5
- 18N. Katic7.2
- 15A. Memic6.3
- 13I. Basic6.9
- 8A. Gigovic6.2
- 19K. Alajbegovic7.5
- 10E. Demirovic6.7
- 20E. Bajraktarevic6.2
- 11E. Dzeko6.2
- 22M. Zlomislic
- 1M. Jurkas
- 7N. Omerovic
- 21S. Radeljic
- 2N. Mujakic
- 6Z. Smajlovicon 87'6.7
- 3A. Malic
- 14I. Sunjicon 87'6.3
- 17L. Djuric
- 16E. Mahmicon 76'6.7
- 9J. Lukicon 76'6.5
- 23H. Tabakovicon 63'6.7
Sweden- 12V. Johansson6.0
- 5G. Gudmundsson6.3
- 3V. Lindelof6.7
- 15C. Starfelt7.2
- 14H. Skoglund6.6
- 19S. Nanasi7.0
- 20H. Larsson6.9
- 16J. Karlstrom6.7
- 21A. Bernhardsson7.5
- 22B. Zeneli6.9
- 17V. Gyokeres — highest feed rating in the match8.0
- 23M. Ellborg
- 1N. Tornqvist
- 13K. Semaon 90+5'
- 4E. Smithon 31'6.7
- 2F. Beijmo
- 18S. Dahl
- 10H. Bolin
- 8D. Svensson
- 7L. Bergvallon 76'6.3
- 9P. Abraham
- 11W. Swedbergon 76'6.5
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Sweden win — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Sweden not losing. 5 more bet on both teams to score — the bet won. The other 5 chose other bets: a total-goals bet and double chance.
- 5 of 16BTTSodds 1.62ChatGPTClaudeMiniMax
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon - 5 of 162our betodds 2.08
GrokDeepSeek FlashMistralXiaomi MiMoNemotron Superlost - 4 of 16O 2.5odds 1.73DeepSeek
GeminiKimiQwenlost - 1 of 16X2same directionodds 1.36
Sonarwon - 1 of 161Xodds 1.71
GLMwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:50 UTC
Sweden have taken maximum points from the first two rounds and lead the group, with Bosnia and Herzegovina second on four points. The market gives the visitors a marked edge even on the road: a Sweden win is rated at 44% against 29% for the hosts, and that kind of gap for an away game says the difference in squad quality is clearly priced in. Our pick is Sweden to win at 2.08.
Where we could be wrong
The draw at 3.48 is the reason for caution. Bosnia and Herzegovina trail by just two points and at home can happily sit deep — avoiding defeat keeps them in the race for top spot. There is no team news on the hosts yet either, and a third-round match with first place at stake rarely turns into an open game.
- 5 of 16 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction; more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Bosnia and Herzegovina| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Romania | A | 4:2 | W |
| 25.09 | Poland | A | 0:0 | D |
| 02.07 | USAWorld Cup | A | 0:2xG 0.3–0.9 | L |
| 24.06 | QatarWorld Cup | H | 3:1xG 0.7–0.8 | W |
| 18.06 | SwitzerlandWorld Cup | A | 1:4xG 0.2–2.1 | L |
| 12.06 | CanadaWorld Cup | A | 1:1xG 1.0–1.2 | D |
| 06.06 | Panamafriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
Sweden| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Poland | H | 3:1 | W |
| 25.09 | Romania | H | 2:1 | W |
| 30.06 | FranceWorld Cup | A | 0:3xG 0.7–3.2 | L |
| 25.06 | JapanWorld Cup | A | 1:1xG 0.6–1.2 | D |
| 20.06 | NetherlandsWorld Cup | A | 1:5xG 1.0–2.6 | L |
| 15.06 | TunisiaWorld Cup | H | 5:1xG 1.3–0.3 | W |
| 04.06 | Greecefriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–2 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4–2 | 4 | DW |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1–3 | 1 | DL |
| 4 | Romania | 2 | 0-0-2 | 3–6 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
