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Croatia vs England 0:7: Nations League result and odds
Croatia vs England finished 0:7 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was England to win at 1.87, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: England to win
1.87AI models' pick · 9 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — England: 1.87 → 1.85 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (an England win) has shortened from 1.87 to 1.85: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Croatia | Draw | England · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.84+0.05 | 3.71+0.10 | 1.85−0.02 | |
| We published an England win at 1.87 | |||
| 3.79opened | 3.61opened | 1.87opened | |
How the match went
England routed Croatia 7-0, leading 4-0 at the break. Harry Kane opened the scoring in the 8th minute, Jude Bellingham doubled the lead in the 21st, Anthony Gordon made it three in the 39th and Bukayo Saka added a fourth on half-time. Kane struck again in the 53rd, Saka completed his double in the 68th, and Morgan Rogers closed the scoring in the 87th, with Bellingham involved in three of the assists. Croatia's only card went to Mateo Kovačić. England had 6.43 expected goals to Croatia's 1.39, nineteen shots to twelve, ten on target to just one, and 64% of the ball. We had backed England to win, at 1.87, and the bet landed. Before kick-off England were priced around 1.85 to win, the draw at 3.71 and Croatia at 3.84. The over/under line had over 2.5 goals at 1.74, which landed with seven scored, while the no side of both teams to score, at 2.15, was the other result that came in.
- 8'Harry Kane (Jude Bellingham)0:1
- 21'Jude Bellingham (Anthony Gordon)0:2
- 39'Anthony Gordon (Jarell Quansah)0:3
- 45'Bukayo Saka (Jude Bellingham)0:4
- 46'on Nikola Vlašić, off Martin Baturina
- 46'on Mario Pašalić, off Petar Sučić
- 46'on Igor Matanović, off Petar Musa
- 53'Harry Kane (Elliot Anderson)0:5
- 57'on Kristijan Jakić, off Luka Modrić
- 68'Mateo Kovačić YC
- 68'Bukayo Saka (Harry Kane)0:6
- 70'on Morgan Rogers, off Harry Kane
- 70'on James Garner, off Alex Scott
- 70'on Eberechi Eze, off Anthony Gordon
- 76'on Josip Šutalo, off Josip Stanišić
- 79'on Myles Lewis-Skelly, off Lewis Hall
- 79'on Morgan Gibbs-White, off Elliot Anderson
- 87'Morgan Rogers (Jude Bellingham)0:7
| Croatia | stat | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | expected goals (xG) | 6.43 |
| 12 | shots | 19 |
| 1 | on target | 10 |
| 36% | possession | 64% |
| 1 | corners | 6 |
| 10 | fouls | 6 |
| 3 | saves | 1 |
| 86% | pass accuracy | 91% |
| 1 | yellow cards | 0 |
| 0.05 | goals prevented | 0.05 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Croatia- 1Dominik Livaković6.2
- 14Ivan Perišić5.6
- 4Joško Gvardiol5.0
- 5Luka Vušković5.2
- 2Josip Stanišić4.9
- 8Mateo Kovačić6.6
- 10Luka Modrić6.5
- 16Martin Baturina6.0
- 17Petar Sučić6.2
- 7Franjo Ivanović5.7
- 11Petar Musa6.5
- 13Nikola Vlašićon 46'6.6
- 15Mario Pašalićon 46'6.5
- 20Igor Matanovićon 46'6.2
- 18Kristijan Jakićon 57'6.9
- 6Josip Šutaloon 76'6.7
- 12Ivor Pandur
- 23Dominik Kotarski
- 3Ivan Smolčić
- 19Marco Pašalić
- 21Luka Sučić
- 22Josip Mišić
- 9Andrej Kramarić
England- 1Jordan Pickford7.2
- 3Lewis Hall8.0
- 6Marc Guéhi7.5
- 5Ezri Konsa7.6
- 22Jarell Quansah7.5
- 4Alex Scott7.2
- 8Elliot Anderson8.2
- 11Anthony Gordon9.3
- 10Jude Bellingham — highest feed rating in the match10.0
- 7Bukayo Saka7.6
- 9Harry Kane10.0
- 17Morgan Rogerson 70'8.7
- 21Eberechi Ezeon 70'6.6
- 18James Garneron 70'6.6
- 16Myles Lewis-Skellyon 79'6.9
- 20Morgan Gibbs-Whiteon 79'6.7
- 23Jason Steele
- 13James Trafford
- 2Trent Alexander-Arnold
- 12Trevoh Chalobah
- 15Jarrad Branthwaite
- 14Rio Ngumoha
- 19Dominic Calvert-Lewin
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on an England win — the bet won. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: England not losing. 3 more each on both teams to score (lost) and on over 2.5 goals (won).
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:50 UTC
England's 4-2 win over Croatia at the World Cup in June was their third success in the last five meetings, with one draw alongside it. The Vatreni's only victory in that run dates back to the summer of 2018, and they have not beaten the Three Lions since. Away from home England are still the favourites with the bookmakers, rated at 50% against 24% for the hosts.
Where we could be wrong
What gives pause is not form but the venue. In October 2018 Croatia did not let England score at all on their own patch, and in June they lost yet still breached the English defence twice. After two matchdays both sides have three points, so the cost of a slip is high for each, and a draw at 3.61 remains a live scenario. Even so, our pick is an England win at 1.87.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Croatia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | Spain | A | 1:4 | L |
| 26.09 | Czechia | A | 2:1 | W |
| 02.07 | PortugalWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 1.3–2.2 | L |
| 27.06 | GhanaWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 0.4–0.6 | W |
| 23.06 | PanamaWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.6–0.6 | W |
| 17.06 | EnglandWorld Cup | A | 2:4xG 0.7–3.2 | L |
| 07.06 | Sloveniafriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
England| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | Czechia | A | 2:0 | W |
| 26.09 | Spain | H | 2:3 | L |
| 18.07 | FranceWorld Cup | A | 6:4xG 2.6–2.9 | W |
| 15.07 | ArgentinaWorld Cup | H | 1:2xG 0.5–1.8 | L |
| 11.07 | NorwayWorld Cup | A | 2:1xG 1.0–0.7 | W |
| 06.07 | MexicoWorld Cup | A | 3:2xG 1.6–1.9 | W |
| 01.07 | Congo DRWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 2.0–0.8 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–1–3Croatia wins · draws · England wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| England vs Croatia | 4:2 | 17.06.26 | World Cup |
| England vs Croatia | 1:0 | 13.06.21 | Euro |
| England vs Croatia | 2:1 | 18.11.18 | |
| Croatia vs England | 0:0 | 12.10.18 | |
| Croatia vs England | 2:1 | 11.07.18 | World Cup |
- both scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 5
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7–3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | England | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–3 | 3 | LW |
| 3 | Croatia | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3–5 | 3 | WL |
| 4 | Czechia | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–4 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
