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Croatia vs Spain 1:2: Nations League result and odds
Croatia vs Spain finished 1:2 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Spain −1.5 handicap at 1.85, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Spain −1.5 handicap
1.85AI models' pick · 15 of 16 for this bet, 1 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Ivan Perišić put Croatia ahead on 17 minutes, and the Vatreni led 1-0 at half-time despite holding just 28% of the ball. Mikel Merino levelled for Spain in the 61st minute, set up by Daniel Olmo Carvajal, and the game turned on 79 minutes when Perišić was sent off, leaving Croatia with ten men. Merino struck again in the 88th minute, teed up by Martín Zubimendi, and Spain won 2-1. Spain had 72% of the possession, though Croatia managed the better shots on target, five to three. Our Spain -1.5 handicap bet, odds 1.85, went down, since the win came by a single goal. Spain had gone off at 1.30 before kick-off, the draw at 5.44 and Croatia at 8.58; the total stayed under 3.5, on offer at 1.69, while both teams to score paid 1.81.
- 14'Slaven Bilic YC
- 17'Ivan Perišić1:0
- 22'Ivan Perišić YC
- 45'on Mikel Merino, off Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
- 61'Mikel Merino (Daniel Olmo Carvajal)1:1
- 65'Luka Modrić YC
- 65'on Dion Drena Beljo, off Igor Matanovic
- 66'on Petar Sučić, off Luka Modrić
- 66'Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante YC
- 71'on Martín Zubimendi, off Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante
- 71'on Fermín López, off Daniel Olmo Carvajal
- 71'on Martin Baturina, off Nikola Vlašić
- 78'on Víctor Muñoz, off Lamine Yamal
- 79'Ivan Perišić RC
- 87'on Yeremy Pino, off Pedri
- 88'on Mario Pašalić, off Mateo Kovačić
- 88'Mikel Merino (Martín Zubimendi)1:2
- 90+2'Víctor Muñoz YC
| Croatia | stat | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | shots | 10 |
| 5 | on target | 3 |
| 28% | possession | 72% |
| 3 | corners | 6 |
| 12 | fouls | 10 |
| 1 | saves | 4 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | red cards | 0 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Croatia- 1D. Livaković5.8
- 4J. Gvardiol6.3
- 5L. Vušković6.2
- 6J. Šutalo6.7
- 2J. Stanišić6.4
- 14I. Perišić6.7
- 8M. Kovačić6.2
- 18K. Jakić6.6
- 10L. Modrić6.4
- 13N. Vlašić6.1
- 20I. Matanović6.3
- 7D. Beljoon 65'6.5
- 22J. Mišić
- 19Marco Pasalic
- 3M. Pongračić
- 15Mario Pasalicon 88'6.0
- 12I. Pandur
- 16M. Baturinaon 71'5.6
- 21L. Sučić
- 11A. Budimir
- 23D. Kotarski
- 17P. Sučićon 66'6.0
- 9A. Kramarić
Spain- 23Unai Simón7.6
- 22Marc Cucurella7.3
- 14Aymeric Laporte7.1
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes6.8
- 12Marc Pubill6.6
- 20Pedri7.1
- 16Rodri6.9
- 15Álex Baena6.5
- 10Dani Olmo6.9
- 19Lamine Yamal6.1
- 21Mikel Oyarzabal5.9
- 4Iván Fresneda
- 17Fran García
- 2D. Huijsen
- 3Robin Le Normand
- 13Josep Martínez
- 6Mikel Merino — highest feed rating in the matchon 45'8.9
- 7Víctor Muñozon 78'6.3
- 11Yeremy Pinoon 87'6.2
- 1David Raya
- 18Martín Zubimendion 71'6.3
- 9Fermínon 71'6.2
- 8Roberto Fernández
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Spain −1.5 — the bet lost. One more bet on over 2.5 goals.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:55 UTC
Spain have come through three rounds without dropping a point — nine points and top of the group, while Croatia sit third with just three from the same three games. The two sides met only a week ago, and on Spanish soil La Roja won 4-1. At the Euros in June 2024 it finished 3-0, and in September 2018 Spain won 6-0. A big scoreline in this fixture stopped being a surprise long ago, and the bookmakers put an outright away win at 1.30, a 72% chance, while the handicap of -1.5 is priced at 1.85 with 52%.
Where we could be wrong
That extra goal and a half in Croatia has not always come easily, though. The 2023 meeting ended 0-0, and in November 2018 Croatia won 3-2. In the last eight head-to-heads the Vatreni have two wins and one draw, and at home they know how to drag a game into a scrappy, stodgy battle in which a single goal would not be enough to land the bet. Even so, our pick is the Spain -1.5 handicap at 1.85.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Croatia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | England | H | 0:7 | L |
| 29.09 | Spain | A | 1:4 | L |
| 26.09 | Czechia | A | 2:1 | W |
| 02.07 | PortugalWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 1.3–2.2 | L |
| 27.06 | GhanaWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 0.4–0.6 | W |
| 23.06 | PanamaWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.6–0.6 | W |
| 17.06 | EnglandWorld Cup | A | 2:4xG 0.7–3.2 | L |
| 07.06 | Sloveniafriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
Spain| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Czechia | H | 3:1 | W |
| 29.09 | Croatia | H | 4:1 | W |
| 26.09 | England | A | 3:2 | W |
| 19.07 | ArgentinaWorld Cup | H | 1:0xG 1.9–0.2 | W |
| 14.07 | FranceWorld Cup | A | 2:0xG 1.6–0.3 | W |
| 10.07 | BelgiumWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 2.1–0.4 | W |
| 06.07 | PortugalWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.7–0.6 | W |
| 02.07 | AustriaWorld Cup | H | 3:0xG 2.8–0.3 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–1–5Croatia wins · draws · Spain wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs Croatia | 4:1 | 29.09.26 | |
| Spain vs Croatia | 3:0 | 15.06.24 | Euro |
| Croatia vs Spain | 0:0 | 18.06.23 | |
| Croatia vs Spain | 3:5 | 28.06.21 | Euro |
| Croatia vs Spain | 3:2 | 15.11.18 | |
| Spain vs Croatia | 6:0 | 11.09.18 | |
| Croatia vs Spain | 2:1 | 21.06.16 | Euro |
| Croatia vs Spain | 0:1 | 18.06.12 | Euro |
- both scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 8
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10–4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | England | 3 | 2-0-1 | 11–3 | 6 | LWW |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3–12 | 3 | WLL |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2–7 | 0 | LLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
