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Czechia vs Croatia: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 26 September, Czechia host Croatia in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is Croatia to win at 2.15: 12 of 17 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Simone Sozza
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Croatia to win
2.15AI models' pick · 12 of 17 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
AI models
- 122 — matches our betodds 2.15ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, GLM, MiniMax, Xiaomi MiMo, Dots3-Note, Nemotron Super
- 2U 2.5odds 1.99Claude, Nemotron Ultra
- 1X2 — matches our betodds 1.34Sonar
- 1BTTSodds 1.65Ling 3.0 Flash VL
- 1Xodds 3.47Mistral
Match odds
Over 4 days a Croatia win shortened from 2.19 to 2.14 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Croatia: 2.15 → 2.14 since we publishedView
The biggest move is a Czechia win: from 3.07 to 3.33.
our price: 1 3.45 · X 3.70 · 2 2.27 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side
Price changes
| When | Czechia | Draw | Croatia · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.33+0.05 | 3.49+0.07 | 2.14+0.01 | |
| 3.28+0.03 | 3.42−0.02 | 2.13 | |
| 3.25+0.05 | 3.44−0.02 | 2.13−0.02 | |
| 3.20−0.01 | 3.46 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.46−0.01 | 2.15 | |
| We published a Croatia win at 2.15 | |||
| 3.21+0.10 | 3.47+0.02 | 2.15−0.02 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | |||
| 3.11+0.04 | 3.45+0.02 | 2.17−0.02 | |
| 3.07opened | 3.43opened | 2.19opened | |
All snapshots (31)
| When | Czechia | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.33 | 3.49 | 2.14 | |
| 3.33 | 3.49 | 2.14 | |
| 3.33 | 3.49 | 2.14 | |
| 3.33 | 3.49 | 2.14 | |
| 3.33 | 3.49 | 2.14 | |
| 3.33 | 3.49 | 2.14 | |
| 3.28 | 3.42 | 2.13 | |
| 3.28 | 3.42 | 2.13 | |
| 3.28 | 3.42 | 2.13 | |
| 3.25 | 3.44 | 2.13 | |
| 3.25 | 3.44 | 2.13 | |
| 3.25 | 3.44 | 2.13 | |
| 3.20 | 3.46 | 2.15 | |
| 3.20 | 3.46 | 2.15 | |
| 3.20 | 3.46 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.46 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.46 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.46 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.47 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.47 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.47 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.47 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.47 | 2.15 | |
| 3.21 | 3.47 | 2.15 | |
| 3.11 | 3.45 | 2.17 | |
| 3.11 | 3.45 | 2.17 | |
| 3.07 | 3.43 | 2.19 | |
| 3.07 | 3.43 | 2.19 | |
| 3.07 | 3.43 | 2.19 | |
| 3.07 | 3.43 | 2.19 | |
| 3.07 | 3.43 | 2.19 |
AI prediction and analysis
12 of 17 AI models went for a Croatia win. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Croatia not losing. 2 more went for under 2.5 goals. The other 2 chose a bet each: both teams to score and a draw. 14 are betting on the match result and 3 on goals.
- 12 of 172our betodds 2.15ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Super - 2 of 17U 2.5odds 1.99ClaudeNemotron Ultra
- 1 of 17X2same directionodds 1.34Sonar
- 1 of 17BTTSodds 1.65Ling 3.0 Flash VL
- 1 of 17Xodds 3.47Mistral
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 24.09 at 09:24 UTC
Czechia have not beaten Croatia in any of the last four meetings: three draws and a 5-1 rout for the Vatreni in June last year in World Cup qualifying. The market gives the visitors 44%, while the hosts are left on 29%, and over three days the prices have drifted the same way — Czechia out from 3.07 to 3.21, Croatia in from 2.19 to 2.15. With that in mind, 2.15 looks a fair price on the stronger squad, and we're backing Croatia to win in the Nations League.
The one worry is the shape of these games. Last October in Czechia it finished as a goalless draw, and at two Euros the sides shared the points. Croatia often grind their wins out the hard way, and one evening like that would be enough for the bet to go down.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Most likely outcome: Croatia to win.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Czechia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.06 | MexicoWorld Cup | H | 0:3xG 0.5–1.7 | L |
| 18.06 | South AfricaWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 1.0–1.4 | D |
| 12.06 | South KoreaWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.8–2.3 | L |
| 05.06 | Guatemalafriendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 31.05 | Kosovofriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 31.03 | DenmarkWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:1 | W |
Croatia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.07 | PortugalWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 1.3–2.2 | L |
| 27.06 | GhanaWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 0.4–0.6 | W |
| 23.06 | PanamaWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.6–0.6 | W |
| 17.06 | EnglandWorld Cup | A | 2:4xG 0.7–3.2 | L |
| 07.06 | Sloveniafriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 02.06 | Belgiumfriendly | H | 0:2xG 0.4–0.8 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–3–1Czechia wins · draws · Croatia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia vs Croatia | 0:0 | 09.10.25 | World Cup qualifying |
| Croatia vs Czechia | 5:1 | 09.06.25 | World Cup qualifying |
| Croatia vs Czechia | 1:1 | 18.06.21 | Euro |
| Czechia vs Croatia | 2:2 | 17.06.16 | Euro |
- both scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Croatia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | England | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Czechia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
