1 Oct
Denmark vs Portugal: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 1 October, Denmark host Portugal in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.72: 6 of 16 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.72AI models' pick · 6 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Split panelAI models' settled picks so far: 11 won · 9 lost · 2 void · −0.26 units All results
the same bet at other prices
what these numbers mean
- safer and riskier
- Safer is the same event, only wider: it also comes in when the main bet does not, so the price is lower. Riskier is the same event, only narrower. We do not consider either option better value than the other: it is one and the same estimate phrased differently, and the price only reflects how widely it is phrased.
AI models
- 6BTTS — matches our betodds 1.72ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, Xiaomi MiMo, Nemotron Ultra
- 52odds 2.01Gemini, Grok, Kimi, Mistral, Nemotron Super
- 2X2odds 1.27Sonar, Dots3-Note
- 21Xodds 1.74Claude, GLM
- 11odds 3.39MiniMax
Match odds
Over the day a draw drifted from 3.40 to 3.59 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.72 → 1.72 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.72 → 1.72, No 2.07 → 2.07.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| We published both teams score at 1.72 | ||
| 1.72opened | 2.07opened | |
All snapshots (2)
| When | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | 2.07 | |
| 1.72 | 2.07 |
AI prediction and analysis
6 of 16 AI models went for both teams to score. 5 more went for a Portugal win. The other 5 chose other bets: double chance and a Denmark win. 10 are betting on the match result and 6 on goals.
- 6 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.72ChatGPTDeepSeekQwenDeepSeek FlashXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultra
- 5 of 162odds 2.01GeminiGrokKimiMistralNemotron Super
- 2 of 16X2odds 1.27SonarDots3-Note
- 2 of 161Xodds 1.74ClaudeGLM
- 1 of 161odds 3.39MiniMax
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 28.09 at 13:31 UTC
Portugal have taken six points from two rounds and lead the group, while Denmark sit third on three. Yet meetings between these two are rarely cagey: last spring they faced each other twice inside a week, and the second game produced seven goals in a 5-2 win for the Portuguese.
A goal at each end is rated at 54% by the bookmakers, almost as likely as not, and that is the tightest market on the game — the result itself is far more one-sided, with 2.01 on the visitors against 3.39 on the hosts. Over the past day the price on Denmark has shortened from 3.52 to 3.39, so there is more faith in them on home soil than there was 24 hours earlier.
The counter-argument is real enough: a clean sheet here is no exotic outcome, because the first of those March meetings turned on a single goal, Denmark winning 1-0. If Portugal go in front early they know how to see a game out without risk, and then Denmark would have to prise open a packed defence — something that does not come off in every match. Even so, our pick is both teams to score at 1.72.
Where we could be wrong
- 7 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
Bottom line. Our pick: both teams to score.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Denmark| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Wales | H | 2:0 | W |
| 24.09 | Norway | A | 2:3 | L |
| 07.06 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 03.06 | Congo DRfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 31.03 | CzechiaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1 | L |
| 26.03 | North MacedoniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 4:0 | W |
| 18.11 | ScotlandWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:4xG 2.5–1.7 | L |
Portugal| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Norway | A | 2:1 | W |
| 24.09 | Wales | H | 1:0 | W |
| 06.07 | SpainWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 0.6–1.7 | L |
| 02.07 | CroatiaWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 2.2–1.3 | W |
| 27.06 | ColombiaWorld Cup | A | 0:0xG 0.9–1.7 | D |
| 23.06 | UzbekistanWorld Cup | H | 5:0xG 2.6–0.2 | W |
| 17.06 | Congo DRWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 0.7–0.9 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–2Denmark wins · draws · Portugal wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal vs Denmark | 5:2 | 23.03.25 | |
| Denmark vs Portugal | 1:0 | 20.03.25 | |
| Denmark vs Portugal | 2:3 | 13.06.12 | Euro |
- both scored in 2 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3–1 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Norway | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–4 | 3 | WL |
| 3 | Denmark | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–3 | 3 | LW |
| 4 | Wales | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0–3 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
