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Denmark vs Wales 2:0: Nations League result and odds
Denmark vs Wales finished 2:0 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Denmark −1 handicap at 1.75, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Denmark −1 handicap
1.75Asian handicap: the bet wins if Denmark win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 8 of 16 on this bet · 7 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day a Wales win drifted from 6.60 to 7.01 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementWales 6.60 → 7.01 over the day · 6 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Denmark win: from 1.45 to 1.42.
Price changes
| When | Denmark | Draw | Wales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42−0.01 | 4.71+0.16 | 7.01+0.14 | |
| 1.43−0.01 | 4.55+0.05 | 6.87+0.04 | |
| 1.44−0.01 | 4.50+0.09 | 6.83+0.23 | |
| 1.45opened | 4.41opened | 6.60opened |
How the match went
Denmark beat Wales 2-0 in Nations League matchday two, breaking the deadlock only after half-time; the first forty-five minutes finished goalless despite a VAR check on Gustav Isaksen on 24 minutes. Ben Davies turned the ball into his own net on 53 minutes to put Denmark ahead, and Isaksen doubled the lead on 66 minutes for the final 2-0. Our Denmark -1 handicap bet at 1.75 landed. The hosts carried the game throughout, running up 1.39 expected goals to 0.62 and 20 shots to 10, with 62% of possession against 38%, though Wales picked up more fouls, 17 to 10. Before kick-off Denmark were quoted at 1.42 for the win, the draw at 4.71, Wales at 7.01, and the 2-0 scoreline was quoted at 6.58.
- 24'goal disallowed (VAR) · Gustav Isaksen
- 30'on Mohammed Daramy, off Patrick Dorgu
- 35'Joakim Maehle YC
- 48'Chris Mepham YC
- 53'Ben Davies own goal1:0
- 60'on Josh Sheehan, off Charlie Savage
- 65'Brennan Johnson YC
- 66'Gustav Isaksen2:0
- 67'on Lewis Koumas, off Kieffer Moore
- 67'on Jordan James, off Daniel James
- 76'on Adam Daghim, off Gustav Isaksen
- 83'on Wes Burns, off Brennan Johnson
- 87'on Victor Froholdt, off Mikkel Damsgaard
- 87'on Kasper Hogh, off Rasmus Hojlund
| Denmark | stat | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | expected goals (xG) | 0.62 |
| 20 | shots | 10 |
| 4 | on target | 3 |
| 62% | possession | 38% |
| 2 | corners | 4 |
| 10 | fouls | 17 |
| 3 | saves | 2 |
| 89% | pass accuracy | 84% |
| 1 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Denmark- 22F. Jörgensen
- 5J. Mæhle
- 3O. Provstgaard
- 2J. Andersen
- 13R. Kristensen
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 21M. Hjulmand
- 17P. Dorgu
- 14M. Damsgaard
- 8G. Isaksen
- 9R. Højlund
- 12M. Bidstrup
- 15V. Bak Jensen
- 11A. Daghimon 76'
- 18A. Gaaei
- 20M. Daramyon 30'
- 16M. Hermansen
- 4L. Høgsberg
- 1A. Jungdal
- 10T. Jørgensen
- 7Victor Mow Froholdton 87'
- 6V. Nelsson
- 19K. Høghon 87'
Wales- 12D. Ward
- 3N. Williams
- 4B. Davies
- 2C. Mepham
- 14C. Roberts
- 7C. Savage
- 5E. Ampadu
- 19S. Thomas
- 20D. James
- 11B. Johnson
- 13K. Moore
- 16R. Norrington-Davies
- 9L. Koumason 67'
- 21T. King
- 17J. Jameson 67'
- 18M. Harris
- 15J. Dasilva
- 10L. Cullen
- 1D. Cornell
- 23C. Congreve
- 6B. Cabango
- 8W. Burnson 83'
- 22J. Sheehanon 60'
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Denmark −1 — the bet won. 7 more chose close bets in the same direction: Denmark −1.5 and a Denmark win. One more bet on both teams to score.
- 8 of 16H1 (−1)our betodds 1.75ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokKimiQwen
GLM
SonarNemotron Ultrawon - 5 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.29DeepSeekDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistral
Dots3-Notewon - 2 of 161same directionodds 1.42ClaudeNemotron Superwon
- 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.90Xiaomi MiMolost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 27.09 at 09:54 UTC
Wales have lost all three of their most recent meetings with Denmark: 0-4 at the Euros in June 2021, 1-2 in November 2018, and a 2-0 defeat in Denmark in September 2018. The market agrees with that pattern. A home win is priced at 1.42, down from 1.45 in the space of a day, while Wales have drifted from 6.6 to 7.01. Both sides came away with nothing from their opening match in the Nations League, and Denmark are better placed to make up the ground at home, where their attack has noticeably more depth than their opponents'. Our pick is the Denmark -1 handicap at 1.75.
Where we could be wrong
The catch is that one of those three wins came by a single goal, and a scoreline like that is not enough to land the bet. Wales can sit deep and drag the game towards rare moments, so if the hosts do not score early, the visitors are capable of keeping the match within one goal.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Denmark| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.09 | Norway | A | 2:3 | L |
| 07.06 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 03.06 | Congo DRfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 31.03 | CzechiaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1pens | L |
| 26.03 | North MacedoniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 4:0 | W |
| 18.11 | ScotlandWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:4xG 2.5–1.7 | L |
Wales| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.09 | Portugal | A | 0:1 | L |
| 06.06 | Romaniafriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 02.06 | Ghanafriendly | H | 1:1xG 1.5–1.8 | D |
| 31.03 | Northern Irelandfriendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 26.03 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:1pens | L |
| 18.11 | North MacedoniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 7:1xG 4.6–0.6 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
3–0–0Denmark wins · draws · Wales wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales vs Denmark | 0:4 | 26.06.21 | Euro |
| Wales vs Denmark | 1:2 | 16.11.18 | |
| Denmark vs Wales | 2:0 | 09.09.18 |
- both scored in 1 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Portugal | 1 | 1-0-0 | 1–0 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Denmark | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2–3 | 0 | L |
| 4 | Wales | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
