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England vs Czechia 3:0: Nations League result and odds
England vs Czechia finished 3:0 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was England −2.5 handicap at 2.10, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: England −2.5 handicap
2.10AI models' pick · 13 of 16 for this bet, 3 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Harry Kane's double either side of half-time, plus an own goal from Vladimír Coufal, did the damage. England led 2-0 at the break after Coufal turned into his own net on 27 minutes and Kane, set up by Morgan Rogers, doubled it on 40. Kane added a third on 57 minutes, teed up by Lewis Hall, and Czechia never threatened a reply: they managed just 5 shots to England's 17, none on target against England's three, and held only 36% of the ball. Our England −2.5 handicap, odds of 2.10, landed with the margin England found. England had been backed to win outright at 1.13 before kick-off, Czechia out at 17.94, the draw at 8.04. The 3.5 goals line finished under, settling at 1.82, and both teams to score closed as a 1.64 no, which is exactly how it played out with Czechia kept off the scoresheet.
- 27'Vladimír Coufal own goal1:0
- 40'Harry Kane (Morgan Rogers)2:0
- 46'on Matej Radosta, off Ondrej Lingr
- 53'Myles Lewis-Skelly YC
- 54'Michal Sadílek YC
- 57'Harry Kane (Lewis Hall)3:0
- 58'on Adam Hložek, off Lukáš Ambros
- 63'on James Garner, off Elliot Anderson
- 63'on Jarrad Branthwaite, off Marc Guéhi
- 67'Martin Vitík YC
- 68'on Roman Macek, off Michal Sadílek
- 68'on Ondřej Zmrzlý, off Jiří Sláma
- 72'on Morgan Gibbs-White, off Lewis Hall
- 73'on Rio Ngumoha, off Jude Bellingham
- 82'on Dominic Calvert-Lewin, off Harry Kane
- 84'on Ondrej Kricfalusi, off Vladimír Coufal
| England | stat | Czechia |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | shots | 5 |
| 3 | on target | 0 |
| 64% | possession | 36% |
| 6 | corners | 3 |
| 10 | fouls | 17 |
| 0 | saves | 1 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
England- 1Jordan Pickford7.0
- 3Lewis Hall7.3
- 6Marc Guéhi7.2
- 4Jarell Quansah7.1
- 2Trent Alexander-Arnold7.7
- 16Myles Lewis-Skelly7.0
- 8Elliot Anderson6.6
- 21Eberechi Eze6.7
- 10Jude Bellingham7.1
- 17Morgan Rogers7.7
- 9Harry Kane — highest feed rating in the match9.4
- 15Jarrad Branthwaiteon 63'6.9
- 18James Garneron 63'6.1
- 20Morgan Gibbs-Whiteon 72'6.5
- 14Rio Ngumohaon 73'6.5
- 19Dominic Calvert-Lewinon 82'6.4
- 13James Trafford
- 23Jason Steele
- 12Trevoh Chalobah
- 22Rico Lewis
- 7Bukayo Saka
- 11Anthony Gordon
Czechia- 16Lukáš Horníček5.8
- 7Jiří Sláma6.0
- 14Martin Vitík6.1
- 4Robin Hranáč6.1
- 5Vladimír Coufal5.0
- 21Alex Král6.4
- 7Pavel Šulc5.5
- 20Ondrej Lingr5.6
- 8Michal Sadílek6.0
- 13Lukáš Ambros6.2
- 9Ryan Don Naderi6.3
- 18Matej Radostaon 46'5.7
- 10Adam Hložekon 58'6.3
- 3Ondřej Zmrzlýon 68'5.9
- 19Roman Macekon 68'6.2
- 2Ondrej Kricfalusion 84'5.9
- 1Matěj Kovář
- 23Antonín Kinský
- 22Michal Sáček
- 12Martin Šubert
- 17Pavel Bucha
- 6Daniel Vašulín
- 11Václav Sejk
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on England −2.5 — the bet won. 3 more bet on at least one side failing to score — the bet won.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:24 UTC
The head-to-head record runs almost entirely one way. Three wins and one defeat from four meetings for England, and at home in March 2019 the Three Lions took Czechia apart 5-0. The same pair met in Prague at the end of September, where Czechia lost 0-2 and were left on zero points after three rounds of the Nations League group, while England sit second with six.
A home win is priced at 1.13, so the winner is barely up for debate. The margin is the real question, and the bookmakers rate England -2.5 at 46%, which at odds of 2.10 makes it a near-even argument. That handicap is our pick.
Where we could be wrong
A win by three or more goals is a fair bit more than England squeezed out of the last meeting, and Czechia, after a run of defeats, will surely sit as deep as they can. Without an early goal, it all hangs on the closing stages.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
England| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Croatia | A | 7:0 | W |
| 29.09 | Czechia | A | 2:0 | W |
| 26.09 | Spain | H | 2:3 | L |
| 18.07 | FranceWorld Cup | A | 6:4xG 2.6–2.9 | W |
| 15.07 | ArgentinaWorld Cup | H | 1:2xG 0.5–1.8 | L |
| 11.07 | NorwayWorld Cup | A | 2:1xG 1.0–0.7 | W |
| 06.07 | MexicoWorld Cup | A | 3:2xG 1.6–1.9 | W |
| 01.07 | Congo DRWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 2.0–0.8 | W |
Czechia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Spain | A | 1:3 | L |
| 29.09 | England | H | 0:2 | L |
| 26.09 | Croatia | H | 1:2 | L |
| 25.06 | MexicoWorld Cup | H | 0:3xG 0.5–1.7 | L |
| 18.06 | South AfricaWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 1.0–1.4 | D |
| 12.06 | South KoreaWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.8–2.3 | L |
| 05.06 | Guatemalafriendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 31.05 | Kosovofriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
3–0–1England wins · draws · Czechia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia vs England | 0:2 | 29.09.26 | |
| Czechia vs England | 0:1 | 22.06.21 | Euro |
| Czechia vs England | 2:1 | 11.10.19 | Euro |
| England vs Czechia | 5:0 | 22.03.19 | Euro |
- both scored in 1 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10–4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | England | 3 | 2-0-1 | 11–3 | 6 | LWW |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3–12 | 3 | WLL |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2–7 | 0 | LLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
