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France vs Belgium 4:1: Nations League result and odds
France vs Belgium finished 4:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was France to win at 1.52, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: France to win
1.52AI models' pick · 5 of 15 on this bet · 6 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Belgium led at half-time through Dodi Lukebakio's 35th-minute goal, set up by Roméo Lavia, with the scoreline holding into the break despite France dominating possession. The second half turned in five minutes: Désiré Doué equalised in the 77th minute from Lucas Da Cunha's pass, Rayan Cherki put France ahead in the 81st with Michael Olise's assist, and Olise added two more in the 88th and 90th minutes, both set up by Doué, to make it 4-1. The numbers back that scoreline: 2.00 expected goals for France against 0.59 for Belgium, 23 shots to five, and 66% of the ball against 34%. Our bet was France to win, priced at 1.52, and it landed. Before kick-off the draw was rated at 4.52 and an away win at 5.36, the goals market went over 3.5 at 2.21, and both teams to score paid 1.60.
- 35'D. Lukebakio (R. Lavia)0:1
- 57'Roméo Lavia YC
- 60'on M. Olise, off O. Dembele
- 60'on R. Cherki, off M. Akliouche
- 61'on L. Da Cunha, off M. Kone
- 69'Maxence Lacroix YC
- 70'on C. De Ketelaere, off R. Lukaku
- 70'on M. Godts, off D. Lukebakio
- 72'on D. Doue, off B. Barcola
- 75'Joaquin Seys YC
- 77'D. Doue (L. Da Cunha)1:1
- 81'R. Cherki (M. Olise)2:1
- 87'on M. Keita, off R. Lavia
- 87'on L. Trossard, off H. Vanaken
- 87'on L. Openda, off D. Moreira
- 88'on A. Rabiot, off E. Camavinga
- 88'M. Olise (D. Doue)3:1
- 90'M. Olise (D. Doue)4:1
| France | stat | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | expected goals (xG) | 0.59 |
| 23 | shots | 5 |
| 8 | on target | 2 |
| 66% | possession | 34% |
| 9 | corners | 2 |
| 4 | fouls | 8 |
| 1 | saves | 5 |
| 90% | pass accuracy | 79% |
| 1 | yellow cards | 2 |
| -2.22 | goals prevented | -2.22 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
France- 1G. Restes6.3
- 5J. Kounde6.9
- 15L. Yoro7.9
- 17M. Lacroix6.7
- 13A. Diouf6.9
- 18M. Akliouche6.7
- 6E. Camavinga7.0
- 8M. Kone7.2
- 7O. Dembele7.9
- 19E. Lepaul6.5
- 12B. Barcola6.6
- 16M. Maignan
- 23J. Butez
- 2P. Kalulu
- 3A. Truffert
- 11M. Olise — highest feed rating in the matchon 60'10.0
- 14A. Rabioton 88'
- 21L. Da Cunhaon 61'7.0
- 9R. Cherkion 60'8.2
- 20D. Doueon 72'8.9
Belgium- 12M. Vandevoordt4.7
- 18J. Seys5.9
- 4B. Mechele7.3
- 15N. Ngoy5.9
- 21T. Castagne6.2
- 20H. Vanaken6.6
- 6R. Lavia7.2
- 23N. Raskin6.5
- 19D. Moreira6.7
- 9R. Lukaku6.9
- 14D. Lukebakio8.3
- 1S. Lammens
- 13M. Penders
- 3A. Theate
- 16K. Sabbe
- 5M. De Cuyper
- 2Z. Debast
- 8M. Keitaon 87'
- 17C. De Ketelaereon 70'6.7
- 22M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 10L. Trossardon 87'
- 11L. Opendaon 87'
- 7M. Godtson 70'6.9
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a France win — the bet won. 6 more chose close bets in the same direction: France −1, France not losing and France −1.5. 2 more bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. The other 2 chose a bet each: a Belgium handicap and 'both to score — no'.
- 5 of 151our betodds 1.52ChatGPT
GeminiKimiDeepSeek FlashNemotron Superwon - 4 of 15H1 (−1)same directionodds 1.86
Grok
GLM
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon - 2 of 15U 2.5odds 2.59MiniMaxXiaomi MiMolost
- 1 of 151Xsame directionodds 1.16
Sonarwon - 1 of 15H2 (+1)odds 2.02Claudelost
- 1 of 15H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.36Mistralwon
- 1 of 15BTTS noodds 2.36Qwenlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:55 UTC
Six head-to-heads in a row have gone France's way, and the last of them came only a week ago: Les Bleus won 1-0 in Brussels at the end of September. In the Nations League group the hosts lead with seven points after three rounds, with Belgium second on six.
A price of 1.52 and 62% based on the average odds from eighteen bookmakers describe a straightforward favourite. Almost all of those wins, though, were squeezed out by the narrowest of margins, so our pick is simply a France win at 1.52, not a big scoreline.
Where we could be wrong
Only one point separates the sides, and victory would take Belgium top, so the visitors have no reason to be cautious. Their forward line can punish a single loose pass. The two teams also faced each other a week ago, which gave the Red Devils a rare chance to pick the opponent apart while it was all still fresh and put right what did not work at home.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
France| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Italy | H | 1:1 | D |
| 28.09 | Belgium | A | 1:0 | W |
| 25.09 | Turkey | A | 1:0 | W |
| 18.07 | EnglandWorld Cup | H | 4:6xG 2.9–2.6 | L |
| 14.07 | SpainWorld Cup | H | 0:2xG 0.3–1.6 | L |
| 09.07 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 2:0xG 3.7–0.1 | W |
| 04.07 | ParaguayWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.4–0.1 | W |
| 30.06 | SwedenWorld Cup | H | 3:0xG 3.2–0.7 | W |
Belgium| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Turkey | H | 3:0 | W |
| 28.09 | France | H | 0:1 | L |
| 25.09 | Italy | A | 2:0 | W |
| 10.07 | SpainWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.4–2.1 | L |
| 07.07 | USAWorld Cup | A | 4:1xG 2.0–0.6 | W |
| 01.07 | SenegalWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 1.8–3.5 | W |
| 27.06 | New ZealandWorld Cup | A | 5:1xG 3.6–0.2 | W |
| 21.06 | IranWorld Cup | H | 0:0xG 1.8–0.6 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
6–0–0France wins · draws · Belgium wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs France | 0:1 | 28.09.26 | |
| Belgium vs France | 1:2 | 14.10.24 | |
| France vs Belgium | 2:0 | 09.09.24 | |
| France vs Belgium | 1:0 | 01.07.24 | Euro |
| Belgium vs France | 2:3 | 07.10.21 | |
| France vs Belgium | 1:0 | 10.07.18 | World Cup |
- both scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 6
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | 2-1-0 | 3–1 | 7 | WWD |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5–1 | 6 | WLW |
| 3 | Italy | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5–4 | 4 | LWD |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1–8 | 0 | LLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
