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France vs Italy 1:1: Nations League result and odds
France vs Italy finished 1:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was France −1.5 handicap at 2.11, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: France −1.5 handicap
2.11AI models' pick · 6 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day an Italy win shortened from 6.48 to 6.43 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementItaly 6.48 → 6.43 over the day · 2 snapshotsView
This market has barely moved: France 1.40 → 1.41, Draw 4.91 → 4.93, Italy 6.48 → 6.43.
Price changes
| When | France | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.41+0.01 | 4.93+0.02 | 6.43−0.05 | |
| 1.40opened | 4.91opened | 6.48opened |
How the match went
France led through Olise on 55 minutes, turning in a Cherki pass, with the match goalless until then. Bastoni equalised for Italy on 68, and it finished 1-1. Upamecano picked up a second yellow on 85 minutes and was sent off, so France closed out the draw with ten men. Our pick was France -1.5 at 2.11, and with the scoreline at 1-1 that bet went down. France held 65% of possession and led 18 shots to 14, eight on target to two, yet the expected goals read 1.26 to Italy's 1.54 — Donnarumma made seven saves and was rated 8.7, the top mark on the pitch. Before kick-off France were priced at 1.41 to win, the draw stood at 4.93 and Italy at 6.43; both teams to score was priced at 1.64 and landed, while the match stayed under the 3.5 goals mark, priced at 1.67.
- 54'Nicolò Fagioli YC
- 55'M. Olise (R. Cherki)1:0
- 62'on A. Vergara, off F. Esposito
- 62'on N. Barella, off S. Tonali
- 68'A. Bastoni1:1
- 73'Dayot Upamecano YC
- 73'Moise Kean YC
- 76'on E. Camavinga, off R. Cherki
- 76'on B. Barcola, off D. Doue
- 80'on I. Doumbia, off D. Frattesi
- 80'on D. Maldini, off S. Esposito
- 82'Antonio Vergara YC
- 85'Dayot Upamecano YC
- 85'Dayot Upamecano RC
- 87'on M. Lacroix, off L. Da Cunha
- 90'on G. Scamacca, off N. Fagioli
- 90+2'Alessandro Bastoni YC
| France | stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 18 | shots | 14 |
| 8 | on target | 2 |
| 65% | possession | 35% |
| 6 | corners | 4 |
| 9 | fouls | 10 |
| 1 | saves | 7 |
| 92% | pass accuracy | 84% |
| 2 | yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | red cards | 0 |
| 1.68 | goals prevented | 1.68 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
France- 16M. Maignan6.7
- 2P. Kalulu6.5
- 22J. Jacquet7.2
- 4D. Upamecano6.6
- 3A. Truffert7.2
- 9R. Cherki7.7
- 21L. Da Cunha6.7
- 14A. Rabiot7.7
- 11M. Olise8.0
- 7O. Dembele6.9
- 20D. Doue7.9
- 1G. Restes
- 23J. Butez
- 5J. Kounde
- 17M. Lacroixon 87'6.6
- 15L. Yoro
- 6E. Camavingaon 76'7.3
- 13A. Diouf
- 8M. Kone
- 19E. Lepaul
- 18M. Akliouche
- 12B. Barcolaon 76'6.6
Italy- 1G. Donnarumma — highest feed rating in the match8.7
- 2M. Kayode7.7
- 19G. Scalvini7.0
- 6A. Bastoni8.3
- 5R. Calafiori7.0
- 16D. Frattesi6.6
- 8S. Tonali6.6
- 10N. Fagioli6.2
- 20S. Esposito6.9
- 7F. Esposito6.7
- 9M. Kean6.2
- 12M. Carnesecchi
- 13G. Vicario
- 3M. Ruggeri
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 23G. Mancini
- 4S. Ricci
- 21A. Vergaraon 62'6.9
- 15I. Doumbiaon 80'6.7
- 18N. Barellaon 62'6.3
- 17D. Maldinion 80'6.9
- 14M. A. Zoma
- 11G. Scamaccaon 90'
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on France −1.5 — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: a France win. 3 more bet on both teams to score — the bet won. The other 6 chose other bets: total-goals bets, an Italy handicap and 'both to score — no'.
- 6 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.11DeepSeek
GrokDeepSeek FlashMistral
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost - 3 of 16BTTSodds 1.64Kimi
GLMXiaomi MiMowon - 2 of 16U 2.5odds 2.65
GeminiMiniMaxwon - 1 of 161same directionodds 1.40Nemotron Superlost
- 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.45Qwenlost
- 1 of 16U 3.5odds 1.67
Sonarwon - 1 of 16H2 (+1.5)odds 1.74Claudewon
- 1 of 16BTTS noodds 2.26ChatGPTlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:49 UTC
France have taken all six points from the first two rounds and lead the group, while Italy sit third on three. The market rates the home win at 66% and prices it at 1.40; the France -1.5 handicap at 2.11 is the same idea, only with the added demand of a win by two or more goals. In November 2024 Les Bleus did exactly that in Italy, winning 3-1, and in the last four meetings they have two wins and two defeats.
Where we could be wrong
One of those defeats came two months before that away success: in September 2024 the Azzurri left France with a 3-1 win. Italy have scored in both of the last two meetings between the sides, and a single accurate strike would leave the hosts needing not just to lead, but to chase a third goal right up to the final whistle. Our pick is the France -1.5 handicap at 2.11.
- 6 of 16 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
France| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Belgium | A | 1:0 | W |
| 25.09 | Turkey | A | 1:0 | W |
| 18.07 | EnglandWorld Cup | H | 4:6xG 2.9–2.6 | L |
| 14.07 | SpainWorld Cup | H | 0:2xG 0.3–1.6 | L |
| 09.07 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 2:0xG 3.7–0.1 | W |
| 04.07 | ParaguayWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.4–0.1 | W |
| 30.06 | SwedenWorld Cup | H | 3:0xG 3.2–0.7 | W |
Italy| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Turkey | A | 4:1 | W |
| 25.09 | Belgium | H | 0:2 | L |
| 07.06 | Greecefriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 03.06 | Luxembourgfriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1pens | L |
| 26.03 | Northern IrelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:0 | W |
| 16.11 | NorwayWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:4xG 0.9–1.4 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–0–2France wins · draws · Italy wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy vs France | 1:3 | 17.11.24 | |
| France vs Italy | 1:3 | 06.09.24 | |
| France vs Italy | 3:1 | 01.06.18 | friendly |
| France vs Italy | 0:2 | 17.06.08 | Euro |
- both scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2 | 2-0-0 | 2–0 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2–1 | 3 | WL |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–3 | 3 | LW |
| 4 | Turkey | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–5 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
