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Greece vs Germany 0:0: Nations League result and odds
Greece vs Germany finished 0:0 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Greece or draw at 1.88, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Greece or draw
1.88AI models' pick · 11 of 16 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over 4 days a Greece win drifted from 3.34 to 4.10 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementGreece 3.34 → 4.10 over 4 days · 2 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Germany win: from 1.95 to 1.79.
Price changes
| When | Greece | Draw | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.10+0.76 | 3.86+0.21 | 1.79−0.16 | |
| 3.34opened | 3.65opened | 1.95opened |
How the match went
Greece and Germany shared a goalless draw in the Nations League, with half-time also 0-0. The closest either side came to breaking the deadlock was in the 32nd minute, when Jonathan Burkardt's effort for Germany was ruled out following a VAR check. Germany controlled much of the play, finishing with 21 shots to Greece's five and 70% of the possession, but managed only four on target compared to Greece's two and could not turn that advantage into a goal. Konstantinos Mavropanos, taken off in the 79th minute, was rated the best player on the pitch at 8.3. Our bet on Greece or a draw, priced at 1.88, landed. Before kick-off Germany were favourites around 1.79, the draw sat near 3.86 and Greece around 4.10; the over/under line landed under, since the game finished scoreless, and both teams to score came in no, priced at 1.92, as neither side found the net.
- 23'Kostas Tsimikas YC
- 32'goal disallowed (VAR) · Jonathan Burkardt
- 36'Waldemar Anton YC
- 46'on A. Androutsos, off A. Kyziridis
- 46'on K. Karetsas, off V. Pavlidis
- 53'Christos Zafeiris YC
- 64'on S. El Mala, off L. Karl
- 64'on N. Woltemade, off J. Burkardt
- 66'Philipp Treu YC
- 69'on C. Mouzakitis, off D. Kourbelis
- 79'Manolis Saliakas YC
- 79'on P. Retsos, off K. Mavropanos
- 83'on B. Conte, off T. Bischof
- 83'on M. Baur, off D. Scherhant
- 88'on C. Kostoulas, off F. Ioannidis
- 90'Malick Thiaw YC
| Greece | stat | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | shots | 21 |
| 2 | on target | 4 |
| 30% | possession | 70% |
| 2 | corners | 3 |
| 8 | fouls | 17 |
| 4 | saves | 2 |
| 3 | yellow cards | 3 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Greece- 12K. Tzolakis7.5
- 21K. Tsimikas6.9
- 3K. Koulierakis7.6
- 4K. Mavropanos — highest feed rating in the match8.3
- 17M. Saliakas7.3
- 23A. Kyziridis6.6
- 20C. Zafeiris6.3
- 6D. Kourbelis7.2
- 7G. Masouras6.5
- 8F. Ioannidis6.3
- 14V. Pavlidis6.5
- 1O. Vlachodimos
- 13C. Mandas
- 2T. Tsapras
- 5P. Retsoson 79'7.0
- 22G. Kyriakopoulos
- 18G. Michailidis
- 15A. Androutsoson 46'7.2
- 16C. Mouzakitison 69'6.7
- 10D. Pelkas
- 19K. Karetsason 46'6.9
- 9A. Douvikas
- 11C. Kostoulason 88'
Germany- 1J. Urbig7.7
- 22D. Raum7.7
- 3W. Anton7.5
- 2M. Thiaw7.9
- 13P. Treu6.3
- 9D. Scherhant7.2
- 5A. Pavlovic7.9
- 8T. Bischof7.5
- 15L. Karl6.9
- 10J. Burkardt6.2
- 17F. Wirtz7.9
- 12F. Dahmen
- 21N. Atubolu
- 18M. Mittelstadt
- 4F. Jeltsch
- 20F. Keidel
- 23V. Janelt
- 16R. Baku
- 6Y. Engelhardt
- 7S. El Malaon 64'6.3
- 11N. Woltemadeon 64'6.6
- 19B. Conteon 83'6.3
- 14M. Bauron 83'6.7
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Greece not losing — the bet won. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: a Greece win. 2 more bet on a Germany win — the bet lost.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 10:04 UTC
Greece sit top of the Nations League group with six points after two rounds, while Germany are third on a single point. A week ago, on 27 September, Greece won 1-0 in Germany, and that was no one-off flash: a calculated game from deep with barely any space between the lines. Now the same opponent travels to a side that has something to protect in the table. The market still makes Die Mannschaft favourites at 48%, yet our pick, Greece or draw at 1.88, also covers the draw, which the bookmakers rate at 25%.
Where we could be wrong
Can the Greek defence hold up a second time, when the Germans know exactly what is waiting for them and arrive looking for revenge? In three previous meetings Greece have just one win and two defeats, and in both of those defeats Germany scored at least two goals.
- Bookmakers: Germany looks more likely.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Greece| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Germany | A | 1:0 | W |
| 24.09 | Serbia | A | 2:1 | W |
| 07.06 | Italyfriendly | H | 0:1 | L |
| 04.06 | Swedenfriendly | A | 2:2 | D |
| 31.03 | Hungaryfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 27.03 | Paraguayfriendly | H | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | BelarusWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:0xG 1.2–0.4 | D |
Germany| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Greece | H | 0:1 | L |
| 24.09 | Netherlands | A | 1:1 | D |
| 29.06 | ParaguayWorld Cup | H | 1:1pensxG 1.5–0.4 | L |
| 25.06 | EcuadorWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.7–1.3 | L |
| 20.06 | Ivory CoastWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 1.9–1.2 | W |
| 14.06 | CuraçaoWorld Cup | H | 7:1xG 4.2–0.4 | W |
| 06.06 | USAfriendly | A | 2:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–2Greece wins · draws · Germany wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs Greece | 0:1 | 27.09.26 | |
| Germany vs Greece | 2:1 | 07.06.24 | friendly |
| Germany vs Greece | 4:2 | 22.06.12 | Euro |
- both scored in 2 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greece | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3–1 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Netherlands | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3–2 | 4 | DW |
| 3 | Germany | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1–2 | 1 | DL |
| 4 | Serbia | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2–4 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
