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Hungary vs Georgia 1:0: Nations League result and odds
Hungary vs Georgia finished 1:0 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.73, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.73AI models' pick · 10 of 16 for this bet, 6 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day a draw shortened from 3.31 to 3.27 — money is coming in on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementdraw 3.31 → 3.27 over the day · 2 snapshotsView
This market has barely moved: Hungary 2.01 → 2.02, Draw 3.31 → 3.27, Georgia 3.54 → 3.53.
Price changes
| When | Hungary | Draw | Georgia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.02+0.01 | 3.27−0.04 | 3.53−0.01 | |
| 2.01opened | 3.31opened | 3.54opened |
How the match went
Hungary's only goal came on 35 minutes, Miloš Kerkez converting a Dániel Lukács pass to make it 1-0, the score at half-time and the final whistle. Otar Kiteishvili had already been booked for Georgia just before that. Hungary piled up 1.66 expected goals to Georgia's 0.45, yet managed only the one finish. Georgia actually had more of the ball, 58% against 42%, without turning it into chances. Tamás Szűcs and Milán Vitális were booked late for Hungary, and Dominik Szoboszlai was rated the match's top performer at 9.2. We backed the under on the 2.5 goal line, priced at 1.73, and with just one goal scored all game it landed. Before kick-off Hungary's win was rated near 2.02, the draw close to 3.27, and Georgia's price around 3.53. The both-teams-to-score market, offered at 1.86 either way, went the no side since Georgia never scored.
- 33'Otar Kiteishvili YC
- 35'Miloš Kerkez (Dániel Lukács)1:0
- 46'on Giorgi Kochorashvili, off Irakli Yegoian
- 50'on Anzor Mekvabishvili, off Otar Kiteishvili
- 57'on Milán Vitális, off Alex Tóth
- 57'on Donát Bárány, off Milán Tóth
- 63'on Giorgi Kvernadze, off Giorgi Tsitaishvili
- 63'on Budu Zivzivadze, off Georges Mikautadze
- 67'Giorgi Kochorashvili YC
- 69'on Rajmund Tóth, off Zsolt Nagy
- 74'Miloš Kerkez YC
- 76'on Zuriko Davitashvili, off Giorgi Chakvetadze
- 80'on Tamás Szűcs, off Dominik Szoboszlai
- 80'on Gábor Jurek, off Dániel Lukács
- 82'Tamás Szűcs YC
- 85'Milán Vitális YC
| Hungary | stat | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | expected goals (xG) | 0.45 |
| 26 | shots | 8 |
| 8 | on target | 3 |
| 42% | possession | 58% |
| 8 | corners | 4 |
| 18 | fouls | 17 |
| 3 | saves | 5 |
| 84% | pass accuracy | 87% |
| 3 | yellow cards | 2 |
| 0.65 | goals prevented | 0.65 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Hungary- 1Balázs Tóth7.5
- 11Miloš Kerkez8.2
- 3Márk Csinger7.7
- 6Willi Orbán7.6
- 2Attila Osváth7.0
- 10Dominik Szoboszlai — highest feed rating in the match9.2
- 13András Schäfer7.2
- 18Zsolt Nagy6.3
- 21Alex Tóth6.9
- 16Dániel Lukács6.3
- 20Milán Tóth6.7
- 8Milán Vitálison 57'6.6
- 9Donát Bárányon 57'6.2
- 14Rajmund Tóthon 69'6.6
- 17Gábor Jurekon 80'6.7
- 7Tamás Szűcson 80'6.3
- 22Ármin Pécsi
- 12Bence Gundel-Takács
- 5Ákos Markgráf
- 4Bence Várkonyi
- 15Áron Csongvai
- 23Áron Doktorics
- 19József Szalai
Georgia- 1Giorgi Mamardashvili7.3
- 4Luka Lochoshvili6.2
- 3Lasha Dvali8.2
- 5Saba Goglichidze7.2
- 19Giorgi Tsitaishvili6.9
- 8Otar Kiteishvili6.2
- 18Irakli Yegoian6.5
- 2Otar Kakabadze6.7
- 10Giorgi Chakvetadze7.2
- 7Khvicha Kvaratskhelia7.6
- 22Georges Mikautadze6.3
- 6Giorgi Kochorashvilion 46'7.0
- 14Anzor Mekvabishvilion 50'6.6
- 17Giorgi Kvernadzeon 63'6.7
- 11Budu Zivzivadzeon 63'6.5
- 9Zuriko Davitashvilion 76'6.6
- 23Luka Gugeshashvili
- 13Davit Kereselidze
- 21Jemal Tabidze
- 20Saba Sazonov
- 15Gizo Mamageishvili
- 12Saba Lobzhanidze
- 16Giorgi Abuashvili
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet won. 3 more bet on a Hungary win — the bet won. The other 3 chose other bets: 'both to score — no' and both teams to score.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:50 UTC
Hungary and Georgia both have one point after two rounds of the Nations League, and neither has worked out how to break down a stubborn defence. Tight games without goals have become their normal story.
The hosts are marginally preferred at 2.01, yet the draw at 3.31 sits right alongside them, and a Hungary win is rated at only 46%. The market is not describing a one-sided win, it is describing a cautious fight over a single goal. Georgia sit deep away from home and hand over the ball, and the Magyars do not have a great deal of cutting edge to punish that sort of defending. Under 2.5 goals comes out at roughly 53% once the prices are read, and at 1.73 that is our pick.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is clear enough. Both sides need points rather than a comfortable goalless afternoon, so an early goal would force whoever is chasing to open up. And Georgia know how to punish space on a quick counter.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Hungary| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Northern Ireland | A | 0:0 | D |
| 25.09 | Ukraine | H | 0:1 | L |
| 09.06 | Kazakhstanfriendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 05.06 | Finlandfriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 31.03 | Greecefriendly | H | 0:0 | D |
| 28.03 | Sloveniafriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 16.11 | Republic of IrelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:3xG 1.2–2.3 | L |
Georgia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Ukraine | H | 0:0 | D |
| 25.09 | Northern Ireland | H | 0:1 | L |
| 05.06 | Bahrainfriendly | H | 2:0 | W |
| 02.06 | Romaniafriendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 29.03 | Lithuaniafriendly | A | 2:0 | W |
| 26.03 | Israelfriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 18.11 | BulgariaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:2xG 1.5–0.8 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 1-1-0 | 1–0 | 4 | WD |
| 2 | Ukraine | 2 | 1-1-0 | 1–0 | 4 | WD |
| 3 | Hungary | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0–1 | 1 | LD |
| 4 | Georgia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0–1 | 1 | LD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
