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Republic of Ireland vs Israel 1:1: Nations League result and odds
Republic of Ireland vs Israel finished 1:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Republic of Ireland to win at 1.92, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Republic of Ireland to win
1.92AI models' pick · 16 of 16 for this bet
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over 4 days a Republic of Ireland win drifted from 1.92 to 2.10 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Republic of Ireland: 1.92 → 2.10 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Republic of Ireland win) has drifted from 1.92 to 2.10: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Republic of Ireland · our bet | Draw | Israel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.10+0.18 | 3.35−0.01 | 3.35−0.20 | |
| We published a Republic of Ireland win at 1.92 | |||
| 1.92opened | 3.36opened | 3.55opened | |
How the match went
Jimmy Dunne won a penalty on 36 minutes after a VAR check, and T. Parrott converted it three minutes later to put the Boys in Green 1-0 up at the break. Israel levelled almost immediately after the restart, Dor Peretz scoring on 47 minutes for the 1-1 final score. Ireland dominated the chances, finishing with 1.90 expected goals to Israel's 1.00. They also had the edge in shots, 16 to 10, but could not add a second goal. Our pick, Ireland to win at odds of 1.92, went down. Israel picked up three yellow cards to Ireland's one, including a late booking for Yarin Levi in injury time. Before kick-off the market had the draw at 3.35 and Ireland's win at 2.10, with the price moving to 1.92 once the line opened. Under 2.5 goals paid out at 1.75 as the match finished with two goals, and both teams to score landed at 1.82.
- 28'Idan Nachmias YC
- 36'penalty confirmed (VAR) · Jimmy Dunne
- 38'Dor Peretz YC
- 39'T. Parrott penalty1:0
- 44'Liam Scales YC
- 47'D. Peretz1:1
- 58'on O. Gandelman, off D. Turgeman
- 58'on L. Yarin, off E. Azoulay
- 69'on R. Vata, off A. Idah
- 69'on C. Ogbene, off J. Moylan
- 72'on M. Solomon, off L. Abada
- 78'on E. Dasa, off I. Feingold
- 78'on Y. Shua, off E. Peretz
- 84'on J. Bagan, off R. Manning
- 84'on B. Lawal, off C. Coventry
- 90+2'Yarin Levi YC
| Republic of Ireland | stat | Israel |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| 16 | shots | 10 |
| 4 | on target | 2 |
| 55% | possession | 45% |
| 3 | corners | 3 |
| 13 | fouls | 15 |
| 1 | saves | 3 |
| 83% | pass accuracy | 83% |
| 1 | yellow cards | 3 |
| 0.90 | goals prevented | 0.90 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Republic of Ireland- 1C. Kelleher6.5
- 3L. Scales6.3
- 5J. O'Brien7.2
- 2J. Dunne7.3
- 18R. Manning7.0
- 6J. Molumby6.9
- 14C. Coventry — highest feed rating in the match7.5
- 8J. Knight7.0
- 10A. Idah5.9
- 17J. Moylan7.2
- 7T. Parrott7.2
- 16M. O'Leary
- 23J. Keeley
- 13J. Baganon 84'6.9
- 15J. Egan
- 12L. Kitching
- 4B. Lawalon 84'
- 11F. Azaz
- 22K. Phillips
- 21R. Vataon 69'6.9
- 20C. Ogbeneon 69'6.3
- 9T. Cannon
- 19O. Elding
Israel- 23A. Tzur7.2
- 3R. Revivo6.7
- 13N. Stoinov7.0
- 5I. Nachmias7.2
- 17I. Feingold6.7
- 20L. Abada6.6
- 11O. Gloukh6.3
- 21E. Azoulay6.3
- 15E. Peretz6.9
- 8D. Peretz6.5
- 19D. Turgeman6.3
- 1N. Eliasi
- 18O. Glazer
- 2E. Dasaon 78'7.2
- 14G. Mizrahi
- 6O. Gandelmanon 58'6.3
- 16G. Kanichowsky
- 12L. Yarinon 58'6.9
- 7Y. Shuaon 78'6.3
- 10M. Solomonon 72'6.7
- 9T. Baribo
- 22S. Abu Farkhi
AI prediction and analysis
All 16 AI models bet on a Republic of Ireland win — the bet lost.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 10:04 UTC
The only previous meeting between these sides is just a week old: Israel lost 0-3 at home to the Republic of Ireland and created next to nothing against their opponents' direct approach. Now the same pair meet again in the Nations League, this time on Irish soil, and the table gives the Boys in Green the better platform — three points and third place in the group after two rounds, while Israel sit fourth and are still without a point. The prices tilt firmly one way: 1.92 on the hosts against 3.55 on the visitors, with a home win rated at 48% and the draw at 27%.
Where we could be wrong
The flip side is a second straight game against the same opponent. Israel have had a week to work out how to handle the Irish style, and with nothing on the board they have nothing left to lose. The market stops short of giving the hosts even half the chance, yet we're backing the Republic of Ireland to win at 1.92.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Republic of Ireland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Israel | A | 3:0 | W |
| 24.09 | Kosovo | A | 0:1 | L |
| 05.06 | Canadafriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 28.05 | Qatarfriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 16.05 | Grenadafriendly | H | 5:0 | W |
| 31.03 | North Macedoniafriendly | H | 0:0 | D |
| 26.03 | CzechiaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:2pens | L |
Israel| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Republic of Ireland | H | 0:3 | L |
| 24.09 | Austria | A | 1:3 | L |
| 03.06 | Albaniafriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 26.03 | Georgiafriendly | A | 2:2 | D |
| 16.11 | MoldovaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 4:1xG 4.4–0.3 | W |
| 13.11 | Lithuaniafriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 14.10 | ItalyWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:3xG 0.4–3.3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–0Republic of Ireland wins · draws · Israel wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel vs Republic of Ireland | 0:3 | 27.09.26 |
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austria | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6–2 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Kosovo | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2–3 | 3 | WL |
| 3 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3–1 | 3 | LW |
| 4 | Israel | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–6 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
