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Italy vs Belgium: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 25 September, Italy host Belgium in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is Italy to win at 2.21: 10 of 17 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Daniel Siebert
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Italy to win
2.21AI models' pick · 10 of 17 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
AI models
- 101 — matches our betodds 2.12ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek Flash, GLM, Mistral, Ling 3.0 Flash VL, Nemotron Super, Nemotron Ultra
- 4BTTSodds 1.64Claude, DeepSeek, Xiaomi MiMo, Dots3-Note
- 11X — matches our betodds 1.33Sonar
- 1U 2.5odds 2.00Qwen
- 12odds 3.15MiniMax
Match odds
Over 4 days a Italy win drifted from 2.12 to 2.22 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Italy: 2.21 → 2.22 since we publishedView
The biggest move is a Belgium win: from 3.19 to 3.11.
our price: 1 2.33 · X 3.70 · 2 3.33 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side
Price changes
| When | Italy · our bet | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22−0.02 | 3.64+0.07 | 3.11−0.01 | |
| 2.24+0.02 | 3.57+0.10 | 3.12+0.02 | |
| 2.22+0.01 | 3.47+0.01 | 3.10+0.01 | |
| 2.21 | 3.46 | 3.09−0.01 | |
| 2.21−0.01 | 3.46+0.01 | 3.10+0.02 | |
| 2.22+0.01 | 3.45 | 3.08−0.01 | |
| 2.21 | 3.45+0.01 | 3.09 | |
| We published a Italy win at 2.21 | |||
| 2.21+0.03 | 3.44−0.02 | 3.09−0.06 | |
| 2.18+0.06 | 3.46−0.01 | 3.15−0.07 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | |||
| 2.12 | 3.47+0.01 | 3.22−0.01 | |
| 2.12 | 3.46−0.03 | 3.23+0.04 | |
| 2.12opened | 3.49opened | 3.19opened | |
All snapshots (31)
| When | Italy | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | 3.64 | 3.11 | |
| 2.24 | 3.57 | 3.12 | |
| 2.24 | 3.57 | 3.12 | |
| 2.24 | 3.57 | 3.12 | |
| 2.24 | 3.57 | 3.12 | |
| 2.24 | 3.57 | 3.12 | |
| 2.24 | 3.57 | 3.12 | |
| 2.22 | 3.47 | 3.10 | |
| 2.21 | 3.46 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.46 | 3.10 | |
| 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.08 | |
| 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.08 | |
| 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.08 | |
| 2.21 | 3.45 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.45 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.45 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.44 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.44 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.44 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.44 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.44 | 3.09 | |
| 2.21 | 3.44 | 3.09 | |
| 2.18 | 3.46 | 3.15 | |
| 2.18 | 3.46 | 3.15 | |
| 2.12 | 3.47 | 3.22 | |
| 2.12 | 3.46 | 3.23 | |
| 2.12 | 3.49 | 3.19 | |
| 2.12 | 3.49 | 3.19 | |
| 2.12 | 3.49 | 3.19 | |
| 2.12 | 3.49 | 3.19 | |
| 2.12 | 3.49 | 3.19 |
AI prediction and analysis
10 of 17 AI models went for a Italy win. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Italy not losing. 4 more went for both teams to score. The other 2 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and a Belgium win. 12 are betting on the match result and 5 on goals.
- 10 of 171our betodds 2.12ChatGPTGeminiGrokKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistral
Ling 3.0 Flash VLNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 4 of 17BTTSodds 1.64ClaudeDeepSeekXiaomi MiMoDots3-Note
- 1 of 171Xsame directionodds 1.33Sonar
- 1 of 17U 2.5odds 2.00Qwen
- 1 of 172odds 3.15MiniMax
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 24.09 at 09:24 UTC
Belgium have not beaten Italy in any of the last five meetings: four defeats and a 2-2 draw in Italy in October 2024. A month later the Red Devils lost 0-1 at home, and at two European Championships they went down 1-2 and 0-2. Italy open their Nations League campaign in front of their own supporters, and the market has them in front at 2.18, against 3.15 for the away win — 43% against 30%.
Over three days the price on the Azzurri has drifted from 2.12 to 2.18, so support for the hosts has thinned. Belgium's pace in attack can settle a game with one moment out of nothing, and that 2-2 draw is a reminder of how quickly a match like this opens up. Even so, we're backing Italy to win.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Most likely outcome: Italy to win.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Italy| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.06 | Greecefriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 03.06 | Luxembourgfriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1 | L |
| 26.03 | Northern IrelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:0 | W |
| 16.11 | NorwayWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:4xG 0.9–1.4 | L |
| 13.11 | MoldovaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:0xG 2.9–0.2 | W |
Belgium| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.07 | SpainWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.4–2.1 | L |
| 07.07 | USAWorld Cup | A | 4:1xG 2.0–0.6 | W |
| 01.07 | SenegalWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 1.8–3.5 | W |
| 27.06 | New ZealandWorld Cup | A | 5:1xG 3.6–0.2 | W |
| 21.06 | IranWorld Cup | H | 0:0xG 1.8–0.6 | D |
| 15.06 | EgyptWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 1.4–1.1 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
4–1–0Italy wins · draws · Belgium wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs Italy | 0:1 | 14.11.24 | |
| Italy vs Belgium | 2:2 | 10.10.24 | |
| Italy vs Belgium | 2:1 | 10.10.21 | |
| Belgium vs Italy | 1:2 | 02.07.21 | Euro |
| Belgium vs Italy | 0:2 | 13.06.16 | Euro |
- both scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 5
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Italy | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Belgium | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Turkey | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
