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Italy vs Turkey 3:1: Nations League result and odds
Italy vs Turkey finished 3:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Italy −1.5 handicap at 2.13, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Italy −1.5 handicap
2.13AI models' pick · 7 of 16 on this bet · 7 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Italy's 3-1 win over Turkey turned on a six-minute spell after the break: Scamacca's 26th-minute strike had made it 1-0 at half-time, Simsir levelled for Turkey in the 61st minute off an Elmali assist, and Calafiori restored the lead three minutes later, finishing a pass from Barella. Esposito added a third in the 87th minute, converting a Romano assist, for the final 3-1. Our Italy -1.5 handicap bet, priced at 2.13, landed. Turkey held more of the ball, 55% to 45%, and won nine corners to three, yet Italy led on expected goals, 2.04 to 1.42, with six shots on target to five. Beforehand the market rated Italy to win at 1.43, the draw on offer at 4.86 and Turkey out to 6.32; both teams to score came in at 1.67, and the match went over 3.5 goals with four scored.
- 26'G. Scamacca1:0
- 42'Gianluca Scamacca YC
- 47'Matteo Ruggeri YC
- 55'Zeki Çelik YC
- 55'on M. Kayode, off G. Di Lorenzo
- 56'on R. Calafiori, off M. Ruggeri
- 56'on F. Esposito, off G. Scamacca
- 61'A. Simsir (E. Elmali)1:1
- 64'R. Calafiori (N. Barella)2:1
- 70'on S. Tonali, off N. Barella
- 70'on B. Elmaz, off I. Kahveci
- 70'on I. Fakili, off A. Simsir
- 79'on K. Akturkoglu, off I. Yuksek
- 81'Abdülkerim Bardakcı YC
- 84'on D. Frattesi, off A. Vergara
- 87'F. Esposito (A. Romano)3:1
- 88'on D. Gul, off Y. Akgun
- 88'on O. Aydin, off F. Kadioglu
| Italy | stat | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| 2.04 | expected goals (xG) | 1.42 |
| 15 | shots | 14 |
| 6 | on target | 5 |
| 45% | possession | 55% |
| 3 | corners | 9 |
| 11 | fouls | 9 |
| 4 | saves | 3 |
| 87% | pass accuracy | 90% |
| 2 | yellow cards | 2 |
| -0.29 | goals prevented | -0.29 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Italy- 1G. Donnarumma7.5
- 22G. Di Lorenzo7.2
- 23G. Mancini7.9
- 6A. Bastoni7.7
- 3M. Ruggeri6.7
- 18N. Barella7.2
- 4A. Romano7.6
- 15I. Doumbia — highest feed rating in the match8.3
- 21A. Vergara7.5
- 11G. Scamacca7.2
- 17D. Maldini6.2
- 12M. Carnesecchi
- 13G. Vicario
- 2M. Kayodeon 55'6.3
- 5R. Calafiorion 56'7.3
- 19G. Scalvini
- 16D. Frattesion 84'6.6
- 14S. Inacio
- 8S. Tonalion 70'6.6
- 10N. Fagioli
- 7N. Cambiaghi
- 9F. Espositoon 56'7.3
- 20S. Esposito
Turkey- 1U. Cakir6.3
- 14A. Bardakci6.7
- 15O. Kabak6.3
- 2Z. Celik6.5
- 13E. Elmali6.2
- 16I. Yuksek6.9
- 5S. Ozcan7.2
- 20F. Kadioglu6.9
- 21A. Simsir7.0
- 10I. Kahveci6.9
- 19Y. Akgun7.2
- 12A. Bayindir
- 23M. Sengezer
- 3M. Demiral
- 22M. Eskihellac
- 4E. Topcu
- 17M. Kabasakal
- 6B. Elmazon 70'6.3
- 8D. E. Tiknaz
- 9D. Gulon 88'
- 7K. Akturkogluon 79'6.7
- 18O. Aydinon 88'
- 11I. Fakilion 70'6.3
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Italy −1.5 — the bet won. 7 more chose close bets in the same direction: Italy −1 and an Italy win. The other 2 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and a Turkey handicap.
- 7 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.13ChatGPTDeepSeek
GeminiQwenDeepSeek FlashMistralXiaomi MiMowon - 6 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 1.69
GrokKimi
GLMMiniMax
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultrawon - 1 of 161same directionodds 1.43Nemotron Superwon
- 1 of 16U 3.5odds 1.64
Sonarlost - 1 of 16H2 (+1)odds 2.24Claudelost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:24 UTC
Italy have had the upper hand in these previous meetings: three wins and a draw from four, and in September they came away from Istanbul with a 4-1 win. Turkey are still without a point after three rounds and prop up the group, while Italy sit third on four points and now defend their goal at home against a side whose league position leaves it no choice but to open up. The market has the hosts at 1.43 and the visitors at 6.32, with a win by two or more goals — the Italy -1.5 handicap — rated at 45%.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is that the Azzurri have managed only four points of the nine available in the group, and they do not win by a wide margin every time out. Even in the rout in Istanbul Turkey got a goal back, and one in reply would be enough to send the handicap bet down. We're still backing Italy on the -1.5 handicap.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Italy| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | France | A | 1:1 | D |
| 28.09 | Turkey | A | 4:1 | W |
| 25.09 | Belgium | H | 0:2 | L |
| 07.06 | Greecefriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 03.06 | Luxembourgfriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1pens | L |
| 26.03 | Northern IrelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:0 | W |
| 16.11 | NorwayWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:4xG 0.9–1.4 | L |
Turkey| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Belgium | A | 0:3 | L |
| 28.09 | Italy | H | 1:4 | L |
| 25.09 | France | H | 0:1 | L |
| 26.06 | USAWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 3.0–2.1 | W |
| 20.06 | ParaguayWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 2.2–0.3 | L |
| 14.06 | AustraliaWorld Cup | A | 0:2xG 1.4–1.2 | L |
| 06.06 | Venezuelafriendly | A | 2:1 | W |
| 01.06 | North Macedoniafriendly | H | 4:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
3–1–0Italy wins · draws · Turkey wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey vs Italy | 1:4 | 28.09.26 | |
| Italy vs Turkey | 0:0 | 04.06.24 | friendly |
| Turkey vs Italy | 2:3 | 29.03.22 | friendly |
| Turkey vs Italy | 0:3 | 11.06.21 | Euro |
- both scored in 2 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | 2-1-0 | 3–1 | 7 | WWD |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5–1 | 6 | WLW |
| 3 | Italy | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5–4 | 4 | LWD |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1–8 | 0 | LLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
