FINISHED
Netherlands vs Germany 1:1: Nations League result and odds
Netherlands vs Germany finished 1:1 in the Nations League. Before the match we gathered the line of 9 bookmakers and the bets of 17 AI models — below are the analysis, the odds and how the prediction did.
- Referee: Alejandro Hernandez
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Germany to win
2.72AI models' pick · 5 of 17 on this bet · 4 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
AI models
- 52odds 2.72Kimi, MiniMax, Xiaomi MiMo, Nemotron Super, Nemotron Ultra
- 4BTTSodds 1.46Claude, DeepSeek Flash, Mistral, Sonar
- 4O 2.5odds 1.53DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Qwen
- 2H2 (+1.5)odds 1.19Dots3-Note, Ling 3.0 Flash VL
- 2X2odds 1.57ChatGPT, GLM
What the odds were
Over 3 days a Germany win shortened from 2.72 to 2.45 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Germany: 2.72 → 2.45 since we published · Germany became the favourite in 1X2View
Since we published, our bet (a Germany win) has shortened from 2.72 to 2.45: the market now rates it as more likely. Germany became the favourite on 24 Sep: their odds went from 2.72 to 2.45, while Netherlands went from 2.32 to 2.65.
our price: 1 2.50 · X 3.85 · 2 2.94 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side
Price changes
| When | Netherlands | Draw | Germany · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65+0.06 | 3.76+0.03 | 2.45−0.06 | |
| 2.59+0.06 | 3.73−0.02 | 2.51−0.05 | |
| 2.53+0.14 | 3.75+0.03 | 2.56−0.14 | |
| 2.39+0.05 | 3.72+0.04 | 2.70+0.02 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | |||
| 2.34+0.02 | 3.68+0.03 | 2.68−0.04 | |
| We published a Germany win at 2.72 | |||
| 2.32opened | 3.65opened | 2.72opened | |
All snapshots (19)
| When | Netherlands | Draw | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 3.76 | 2.45 | |
| 2.59 | 3.73 | 2.51 | |
| 2.59 | 3.73 | 2.51 | |
| 2.59 | 3.73 | 2.51 | |
| 2.53 | 3.75 | 2.56 | |
| 2.53 | 3.75 | 2.56 | |
| 2.53 | 3.75 | 2.56 | |
| 2.53 | 3.75 | 2.56 | |
| 2.53 | 3.75 | 2.56 | |
| 2.53 | 3.75 | 2.56 | |
| 2.39 | 3.72 | 2.70 | |
| 2.39 | 3.72 | 2.70 | |
| 2.34 | 3.68 | 2.68 | |
| 2.34 | 3.68 | 2.68 | |
| 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.72 | |
| 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.72 | |
| 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.72 | |
| 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.72 | |
| 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.72 |
How the match went
- 14'goal disallowed (VAR) · Virgil van Dijk
- 22'Quinten Timber YC
- 24'Jan Paul van Hecke YC
- 30'on Younes Ebnoutalib, off Kai Havertz
- 32'Felix Nmecha (Karim Adeyemi)0:1
- 35'on Mexx Meerdink, off Brian Brobbey
- 57'on Joey Veerman, off Quinten Timber
- 64'on Chris Führich, off Kevin Schade
- 64'on Anton Stach, off Felix Nmecha
- 68'Nadiem Amiri YC
- 68'Denzel Dumfries YC
- 69'Virgil van Dijk YC
- 80'on Yannick Engelhardt, off Nadiem Amiri
- 80'on Serge Gnabry, off Karim Adeyemi
- 83'on Guus Til, off Tijjani Reijnders
- 83'on Ruben van Bommel, off Crysencio Summerville
- 90+2'Cody Gakpo (Ruben van Bommel)1:1
| Netherlands | stat | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | shots | 10 |
| 10 | on target | 2 |
| 54% | possession | 46% |
| 12 | corners | 1 |
| 11 | fouls | 16 |
| 1 | saves | 9 |
| 4 | yellow cards | 1 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from the statistics provider API-Football — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Netherlands- 1B. Verbruggen6.8
- 15M. van de Ven6.9
- 4V. van Dijk7.2
- 6J. van Hecke6.9
- 22D. Dumfries7.4
- 19Q. Timber6.8
- 8R. Gravenberch6.4
- 11C. Gakpo7.8
- 14T. Reijnders7.1
- 7C. Summerville6.3
- 9B. Brobbey6.3
- 12J. Frimpong
- 2L. Geertruida
- 23M. Flekken
- 3J. Hato
- 20T. Koopmeiners
- 10N. Lang
- 17M. Meerdinkon 35'7.0
- 13R. Roefs
- 16G. Tilon 83'6.3
- 18J. Veermanon 57'6.7
- 21R. van Bommelon 83'7.0
- 5N. Aké
Germany- 1M. ter Stegen7.8
- 18N. Brown6.5
- 15N. Schlotterbeck6.9
- 4J. Tah6.8
- 13P. Treu6.9
- 6J. Kimmich6.7
- 8F. Nmecha — highest feed rating in the match7.9
- 9K. Schade6.2
- 11N. Amiri6.4
- 19K. Adeyemi7.3
- 7K. Havertz6.6
- 22Hennes Behrens
- 2Y. Bisseck
- 12F. Dahmen
- 23Y. Ebnoutalibon 30'6.8
- 5Y. Engelhardton 80'6.3
- 17C. Führichon 64'6.3
- 20S. Gnabryon 80'6.5
- 21A. Nübel
- 3M. Rosenfelder
- 16A. Stachon 64'5.9
- 14J. Vagnoman
AI prediction and analysis
5 of 17 AI models bet on a Germany win — the bet lost. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: Germany +1.5 and Germany not losing. 4 more each on both teams to score (won) and on over 2.5 goals (lost). 9 bet on the match result and 8 on goals.
- 5 of 172our betodds 2.72KimiMiniMaxXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultralost
- 4 of 17BTTSodds 1.46ClaudeDeepSeek FlashMistralSonarwon
- 4 of 17O 2.5odds 1.53DeepSeekGeminiGrokQwenlost
- 2 of 17H2 (+1.5)same directionodds 1.19Dots3-NoteLing 3.0 Flash VLwon
- 2 of 17X2same directionodds 1.57ChatGPTGLMwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 21.09 at 20:13 UTC
Germany have not lost to the Netherlands since 2019. The last four meetings brought Die Mannschaft two wins, including 1-0 in October 2024, and two draws. Across nine previous meetings the Dutch have managed only two wins against four defeats. The visits to Dutch soil have gone well too: Germany won 3-2 there in March 2019, and the trips that followed finished 1-1 and 2-2. The market still leans towards the hosts, who are rated at 40% with Germany at 34%, yet the last few years have gone the Germans' way.
There is an obvious catch. Two of the last three trips to the Netherlands ended level, and a draw would scupper this bet. Oranje can also punish: in September 2019 they put four past Germany on German soil. Even so, we're backing Germany to win at 2.72.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Our pick: Germany to win.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Netherlands| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.06 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 0.2–1.4 | L |
| 25.06 | TunisiaWorld Cup | A | 3:1xG 1.9–0.6 | W |
| 20.06 | SwedenWorld Cup | H | 5:1xG 2.6–1.0 | W |
| 14.06 | JapanWorld Cup | H | 2:2xG 0.8–0.6 | D |
| 08.06 | Uzbekistanfriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 03.06 | Algeriafriendly | H | 0:1 | L |
Germany| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.06 | ParaguayWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 1.5–0.4 | L |
| 25.06 | EcuadorWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.7–1.3 | L |
| 20.06 | Ivory CoastWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 1.9–1.2 | W |
| 14.06 | CuraçaoWorld Cup | H | 7:1xG 4.2–0.4 | W |
| 06.06 | USAfriendly | A | 2:1 | W |
| 31.05 | Finlandfriendly | H | 4:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–3–4Netherlands wins · draws · Germany wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs Netherlands | 1:0 | 14.10.24 | |
| Netherlands vs Germany | 2:2 | 10.09.24 | |
| Germany vs Netherlands | 2:1 | 26.03.24 | friendly |
| Netherlands vs Germany | 1:1 | 29.03.22 | friendly |
| Germany vs Netherlands | 2:4 | 06.09.19 | Euro |
| Netherlands vs Germany | 2:3 | 24.03.19 | Euro |
| Germany vs Netherlands | 2:2 | 19.11.18 | |
| Netherlands vs Germany | 3:0 | 13.10.18 | |
| Netherlands vs Germany | 1:2 | 13.06.12 | Euro |
- both scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 7 of 9
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Serbia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
