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Netherlands vs Serbia 2:1: Nations League result and odds
Netherlands vs Serbia finished 2:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Netherlands −1.5 handicap at 1.70, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Netherlands −1.5 handicap
1.70AI models' pick · 14 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over 4 days a Serbia win drifted from 10.94 to 17.11 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementSerbia 10.94 → 17.11 over 4 days · 2 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Netherlands win: from 1.23 to 1.14.
Price changes
| When | Netherlands | Draw | Serbia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.14−0.09 | 8.43+2.89 | 17.11+6.17 | |
| 1.23opened | 5.54opened | 10.94opened |
How the match went
Teun Koopmeiners put Netherlands ahead on 31 minutes, but Serbia equalised four minutes later through Mihajlo Cvetković, assisted by Aleksa Terzić, and it was 1-1 at half-time. Joshua Zirkzee restored the lead in the 72nd minute, finishing a pass from Tijjani Reijnders for the final 2-1. Serbia picked up four yellow cards - Stefan Gudelj, Strahinja Pavlović, Saša Lukić and Nemanja Maksimović - against one for Reijnders, and neither side was reduced to ten men. Our Netherlands -1.5 handicap bet, taken at 1.70, went down, with the home side winning by just one goal. Netherlands outshot Serbia 22 to 14 and held 65% of possession, control that only translated into a one-goal margin. Netherlands were rated at 1.14 to win outright before kick-off, and the match finished under the 3.5 goals line on three goals in total.
- 14'Stefan Gudelj YC
- 30'Strahinja Pavlović YC
- 31'Teun Koopmeiners1:0
- 35'Mihajlo Cvetković (Aleksa Terzić)1:1
- 45'Tijjani Reijnders YC
- 46'on Joshua Zirkzee, off Mexx Meerdink
- 49'Saša Lukić YC
- 58'on Jorrel Hato, off Joey Veerman
- 58'on Ruben van Bommel, off Noa Lang
- 59'on Gjivai Zechiël, off Ryan Gravenberch
- 66'on Luka Jović, off Dušan Tadić
- 66'on Nemanja Maksimović, off Aleksandar Stanković
- 72'Joshua Zirkzee (Tijjani Reijnders)2:1
- 72'on Andrija Živković, off Lazar Samardžić
- 72'on Filip Kostić, off Aleksa Terzić
- 74'Nemanja Maksimović YC
- 79'on Nemanja Gudelj, off Stefan Gudelj
- 82'on Quinten Timber, off Tijjani Reijnders
| Netherlands | stat | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | shots | 14 |
| 7 | on target | 4 |
| 65% | possession | 35% |
| 6 | corners | 4 |
| 14 | fouls | 13 |
| 3 | saves | 4 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Netherlands- 1Bart Verbruggen7.3
- 15Micky van de Ven7.0
- 20Teun Koopmeiners7.9
- 4Virgil van Dijk7.2
- 22Denzel Dumfries7.0
- 14Tijjani Reijnders7.3
- 18Joey Veerman7.3
- 8Ryan Gravenberch6.7
- 10Noa Lang6.9
- 17Mexx Meerdink6.5
- 7Crysencio Summerville — highest feed rating in the match8.0
- 9Joshua Zirkzeeon 46'6.9
- 3Jorrel Hatoon 58'6.9
- 11Ruben van Bommelon 58'6.9
- 21Gjivai Zechiëlon 59'7.0
- 6Quinten Timberon 82'6.6
- 13Robin Roefs
- 23Mark Flekken
- 5Nathan Aké
- 2Jeremie Frimpong
- 12Jurriën Timber
- 16Guus Til
- 19Kenneth Taylor
Serbia- 23Vanja Milinković-Savić7.5
- 17Aleksa Terzić6.5
- 3Strahinja Pavlović6.2
- 15Srđan Babić6.5
- 19Stefan Gudelj7.2
- 2Kosta Nedeljković6.6
- 7Aleksandar Stanković6.2
- 22Saša Lukić6.2
- 21Lazar Samardžić6.3
- 10Dušan Tadić7.0
- 18Mihajlo Cvetković7.2
- 5Nemanja Maksimovićon 66'6.5
- 8Luka Jovićon 66'6.2
- 11Filip Kostićon 72'6.9
- 14Andrija Živkovićon 72'7.2
- 6Nemanja Gudeljon 79'6.9
- 1Dragan Rosić
- 12Filip Stanković
- 4Ognjen Mimović
- 13Nikola Simić
- 16Strahinja Eraković
- 20Vanja Dragojević
- 9Dejan Joveljić
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Netherlands −1.5 — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: a Netherlands win. One more bet on both teams to score.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 10:04 UTC
Serbia have played two matches in the group and have nothing to show for them, while the Netherlands sit second with 4 points from the same two games. The sides already met at the end of September, when the Oranje won 2-1 away from home. The prices follow that pattern: a home win is 1.23, around 75%, and a winning margin of two goals or more is rated at 56%.
Where we could be wrong
The catch is that in that meeting the Netherlands settled it by a single goal and conceded themselves, so Serbia are capable of keeping this one close. They need their first points in the group, and any one-goal home win is not enough to land the bet. Even so, our pick is the Netherlands -1.5 handicap at 1.70.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Netherlands| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Serbia | A | 2:1 | W |
| 24.09 | Germany | H | 1:1 | D |
| 30.06 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 1:1pensxG 0.2–1.4 | L |
| 25.06 | TunisiaWorld Cup | A | 3:1xG 1.9–0.6 | W |
| 20.06 | SwedenWorld Cup | H | 5:1xG 2.6–1.0 | W |
| 14.06 | JapanWorld Cup | H | 2:2xG 0.8–0.6 | D |
| 08.06 | Uzbekistanfriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
Serbia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Netherlands | H | 1:2 | L |
| 24.09 | Greece | H | 1:2 | L |
| 05.06 | Mexicofriendly | A | 1:5 | L |
| 31.05 | Cape Verde Islandsfriendly | A | 0:3 | L |
| 31.03 | Saudi Arabiafriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 27.03 | Spainfriendly | A | 0:3 | L |
| 26.03 | Qatarfriendly | A | — |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–0Netherlands wins · draws · Serbia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia vs Netherlands | 1:2 | 27.09.26 |
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greece | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3–1 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Netherlands | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3–2 | 4 | DW |
| 3 | Germany | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1–2 | 1 | DL |
| 4 | Serbia | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2–4 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
