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North Macedonia vs Scotland 0:2: Nations League result and odds
North Macedonia vs Scotland finished 0:2 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.71, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.71AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Scotland won this in North Macedonia either side of a VAR swing. Kieron Bowie opened the scoring on 7 minutes, set up by Billy Gilmour, and 0-1 stood at half-time. A penalty appeal involving Ben Gannon-Doak was checked by VAR and overturned on 51 minutes. Soon after, VAR awarded one at the other end for Bowie, and John McGinn scored from the spot to make it 0-2 on 69 minutes. Scott McKenna was sent off for Scotland on 83 minutes, after the scoring had finished. North Macedonia had more of the ball, 56% to 44%. Scotland had 25 shots to North Macedonia's nine. Their expected goals reading was 3.45 against 0.38. Our under 2.5 goals bet at odds of 1.71 landed, with the match finishing 0-2. Scotland were favourites at 1.74 before kick-off, the draw at 3.47, and the no side of both teams to score at 1.75.
- 6'Oli McBurnie YC
- 7'Kieron Bowie (Billy Gilmour)0:1
- 31'on Gjorge Djekov, off Sebastian Herrera
- 31'on Jani Atanasov, off Luka Stankovski
- 37'Jani Atanasov YC
- 44'Gjorge Djekov YC
- 45+1'Mario Mladenovski YC
- 46'on Ryan Christie, off Oli McBurnie
- 51'penalty overturned (VAR) · Ben Gannon-Doak
- 62'on Ljupche Doriev, off Bojan Ilievski
- 62'on Agon Elezi, off Enis Bardhi
- 63'penalty confirmed (VAR) · Kieron Bowie
- 68'Bojan Miovski YC
- 69'John McGinn penalty0:2
- 75'on Robbie Ure, off Kieron Bowie
- 76'on Aaron Hickey, off Ben Gannon-Doak
- 79'on Hristijan Maleski, off Matej Gaštarov
- 80'Anes Meljichi YC
- 83'Scott McKenna RC
- 88'on Luke Graham, off Billy Gilmour
| North Macedonia | stat | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 0.38 | expected goals (xG) | 3.45 |
| 9 | shots | 25 |
| 0 | on target | 10 |
| 56% | possession | 44% |
| 1 | corners | 9 |
| 20 | fouls | 13 |
| 6 | saves | 0 |
| 84% | pass accuracy | 82% |
| 5 | yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | red cards | 1 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
North Macedonia- 23Stole Dimitrievski6.9
- 13Anes Meljichi7.2
- 6Visar Musliu8.0
- 14Mario Mladenovski6.5
- 3Sebastian Herrera6.7
- 8Luka Stankovski6.2
- 16Matej Gaštarov6.9
- 2Bojan Ilievski6.7
- 7Eljif Elmas6.3
- 10Enis Bardhi7.0
- 9Bojan Miovski5.7
- 5Gjorge Djekovon 31'5.6
- 21Jani Atanasovon 31'7.3
- 15Agon Elezion 62'6.3
- 19Ljupche Dorievon 62'6.9
- 22Hristijan Maleskion 79'6.5
- 1Davor Taleski
- 12Damjan Siskovski
- 4Andrej Stojchevski
- 18Tihomir Kostadinov
- 20Dimitar Mitrovski
- 11Elmin Rastoder
- 17Azer Omeragić
Scotland- 1Angus Gunn6.6
- 4Luis Binks7.2
- 16Scott McKenna6.6
- 5Stephen Welsh7.3
- 3Andy Robertson7.2
- 8Billy Gilmour7.3
- 19Lewis Ferguson7.3
- 17Ben Gannon-Doak7.9
- 9Oli McBurnie6.3
- 7John McGinn — highest feed rating in the match8.3
- 20Kieron Bowie7.7
- 11Ryan Christieon 46'6.6
- 10Robbie Ureon 75'6.7
- 2Aaron Hickeyon 76'6.5
- 18Luke Grahamon 88'6.9
- 12Liam Kelly
- 21Scott Bain
- 6Josh Doig
- 13Colby Donovan
- 22Nathan Patterson
- 14Lennon Miller
- 15Josh McPake
- 23Kristi Montgomery
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 7 each on under 2.5 goals (won) and on a Scotland win (won). The other 2 bet on at least one side failing to score — the bet won.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 01.10 at 07:41 UTC
Neither side has built anything up in the group's two opening rounds: North Macedonia sit bottom on zero points, Scotland are third with just one. The prices point the same way, towards a cagey afternoon — the visitors are favourites at 1.74, the draw is 3.47, a home win 4.61, and under 2.5 goals is rated at 54%. One goal would be enough for Scotland away from home, so there is no reason for them to take risks and open up, while North Macedonia, still without a point, will think first about not conceding early. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.71.
Where we could be wrong
If the score stays at one goal against the visitors for a long stretch, Scotland will commit forward properly in the closing minutes. One goal from a set piece and the game leaves the low-scoring script behind.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
North Macedonia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | Slovenia | A | 0:2 | L |
| 26.09 | Switzerland | H | 0:3 | L |
| 01.06 | Turkeyfriendly | A | 0:4 | L |
| 29.05 | Bosnia and Herzegovinafriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 31.03 | Republic of Irelandfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 26.03 | DenmarkWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:4 | L |
| 18.11 | WalesWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:7xG 0.6–4.6 | L |
Scotland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | Switzerland | H | 0:3 | L |
| 26.09 | Slovenia | A | 0:0 | D |
| 24.06 | BrazilWorld Cup | H | 0:3xG 1.0–4.3 | L |
| 19.06 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 0.5–1.0 | L |
| 14.06 | HaitiWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.1–1.1 | W |
| 06.06 | Boliviafriendly | A | 4:0 | W |
| 30.05 | Curaçaofriendly | H | 4:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6–0 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Slovenia | 2 | 1-1-0 | 2–0 | 4 | DW |
| 3 | Scotland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0–3 | 1 | DL |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0–5 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
