FINISHED
Norway vs Denmark 3:2: Nations League result and odds
Norway vs Denmark finished 3:2 in the Nations League. Before the match we gathered the line of 9 bookmakers and the bets of 16 AI models — below are the analysis, the odds and how the prediction did.
- Referee: Tobias Stieler
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.69AI models' pick · 8 of 16 for this bet, 8 for others
Split panelAI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
the same bet at other prices
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- safer and riskier
- Safer is the same event, only wider: it also comes in when the main bet does not, so the price is lower. Riskier is the same event, only narrower. We do not consider either option better value than the other: it is one and the same estimate phrased differently, and the price only reflects how widely it is phrased.
AI models
- 8BTTSodds 1.69ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, MiniMax
- 41odds 1.74GLM, Xiaomi MiMo, Dots3-Note, Ling 3.0 Flash VL
- 11Xodds 1.20Sonar
- 1O 2.5odds 1.73Kimi
- 1H1 (-1.5)odds 2.96Mistral
- 12odds 4.26Nemotron Super
What the odds were
Over 3 days a Denmark win drifted from 4.26 to 5.30 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.69 → 1.56 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.69 to 1.56: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56+0.01 | 2.30−0.02 | |
| 1.55−0.02 | 2.32+0.03 | |
| 1.57+0.01 | 2.29−0.02 | |
| 1.56−0.13 | 2.31+0.23 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | ||
| 1.69 | 2.08+0.02 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.69 | ||
| 1.69opened | 2.06opened | |
All snapshots (19)
| When | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | 2.30 | |
| 1.55 | 2.32 | |
| 1.55 | 2.32 | |
| 1.55 | 2.32 | |
| 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| 1.56 | 2.31 | |
| 1.56 | 2.31 | |
| 1.69 | 2.08 | |
| 1.69 | 2.08 | |
| 1.69 | 2.06 | |
| 1.69 | 2.06 | |
| 1.69 | 2.06 | |
| 1.69 | 2.06 | |
| 1.69 | 2.06 |
How the match went
- 14'Oscar Bobb (Martin Odegaard)1:0
- 18'Erling Haaland (Antonio Nusa)2:0
- 25'Mikkel Damsgaard2:1
- 38'Rasmus Kristensen YC
- 60'Rasmus Hojlund2:2
- 66'on David Moller Wolfe, off Fredrik Aursnes
- 66'on Andreas Schjelderup, off Patrick Berg
- 66'on Thelo Aasgaard, off Oscar Bobb
- 68'David Moller Wolfe YC
- 70'Patrick Dorgu YC
- 74'Erling Haaland (Martin Odegaard)3:2
- 75'on Gustav Isaksen, off Patrick Dorgu
- 75'on Mads Bidstrup, off Victor Froholdt
- 82'on Kasper Hogh, off Rasmus Hojlund
- 82'on Albert Grönbaek, off Mikkel Damsgaard
- 88'on Thomas Jorgensen, off Morten Hjulmand
- 89'on Kristian Thorstvedt, off Antonio Nusa
- 90+1'Gustav Isaksen YC
- 90+3'David Moller Wolfe RC
| Norway | stat | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | shots | 13 |
| 7 | on target | 7 |
| 49% | possession | 51% |
| 4 | corners | 8 |
| 14 | fouls | 10 |
| 5 | saves | 4 |
| 0 | yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | red cards | 0 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from the statistics provider API-Football — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Norway- 1Ø. Nyland7.1
- 7F. Aursnes6.4
- 17T. Heggem6.5
- 3K. Ajer6.6
- 14J. Ryerson6.2
- 6P. Berg6.4
- 8S. Berge6.7
- 10M. Ødegaard8.3
- 20A. Nusa6.7
- 9E. Haaland — highest feed rating in the match9.5
- 22Oscar Bobb7.8
- 2O. Bjørtuft
- 19T. Aasgaardon 66'6.2
- 15O. Didrik Blomberg
- 23E. Botheim
- 11J. Strand Larsen
- 4L. Østigård
- 16M. Pedersen
- 21A. Schjelderupon 66'6.9
- 13E. Selvik
- 12S. Tangvik
- 18K. Thorstvedton 89'6.1
- 5D. Møller Wolfeon 66'5.2
Denmark- 22F. Jörgensen6.5
- 5J. Mæhle6.4
- 3O. Provstgaard6.4
- 2J. Andersen6.2
- 13R. Kristensen6.0
- 23P. Højbjerg6.3
- 21M. Hjulmand7.0
- 14M. Damsgaard7.7
- 7Victor Mow Froholdt5.9
- 17P. Dorgu6.5
- 9R. Højlund7.8
- 11A. Daghim
- 20A. Grønbækon 82'5.8
- 16M. Hermansen
- 19K. Høghon 82'6.3
- 4L. Høgsberg
- 8G. Isaksenon 75'6.2
- 10T. Jørgensenon 88'5.9
- 1A. Jungdal
- 6V. Nelsson
- 15V. Bak Jensen
- 12M. Bidstrupon 75'5.8
- 18A. Gaaei
AI prediction and analysis
8 of 16 AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 4 more bet on a Norway win — the bet won. The other 4 chose a bet each: double chance, a total-goals bet, a Norway handicap and a Denmark win. 7 bet on the match result and 9 on goals.
- 8 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.69ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeekGeminiGrokQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxwon
- 4 of 161odds 1.74GLMXiaomi MiMoDots3-NoteLing 3.0 Flash VLwon
- 1 of 161Xodds 1.20Sonarwon
- 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.73Kimiwon
- 1 of 16H1 (-1.5)odds 2.96Mistrallost
- 1 of 162odds 4.26Nemotron Superlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 21.09 at 20:13 UTC
The stronger of these two is at home, yet the market leaves the visitors plenty of scope to score. Norway are strong favourites, rated at 54% for the win, while both teams scoring is put at 55% — a fraction higher than a home win. That is the picture of a game in which Denmark carry a threat of their own. The only previous meeting came in June 2024: Denmark won that friendly 3-1, and both sides found the net.
An opening round in the Nations League often turns cautious. The cost of a mistake is high and the rhythm after a break is not there yet. If Denmark settle into a low block away from home and look after a draw, they may simply not create enough at the other end. Even so, we're backing both teams to score.
Where we could be wrong
- 8 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.
Bottom line. Our pick: both teams to score.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Norway| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.07 | EnglandWorld Cup | H | 1:2xG 0.7–1.0 | L |
| 05.07 | BrazilWorld Cup | A | 2:1xG 1.1–2.6 | W |
| 30.06 | Ivory CoastWorld Cup | A | 2:1xG 2.0–1.4 | W |
| 26.06 | FranceWorld Cup | H | 1:4xG 1.7–1.5 | L |
| 23.06 | SenegalWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 2.2–1.7 | W |
| 16.06 | IraqWorld Cup | A | 4:1xG 2.5–0.8 | W |
Denmark| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.06 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 03.06 | Congo DRfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 31.03 | CzechiaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1 | L |
| 26.03 | North MacedoniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 4:0 | W |
| 18.11 | ScotlandWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:4xG 2.5–1.7 | L |
| 15.11 | BelarusWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:2xG 3.4–0.9 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–0–1Norway wins · draws · Denmark wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark vs Norway | 3:1 | 08.06.24 | friendly |
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Denmark | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Norway | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Wales | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
