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Poland vs Romania 6:0: Nations League result and odds
Poland vs Romania finished 6:0 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Poland to win at 1.53, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Poland to win
1.53AI models' pick · 5 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Poland: 1.53 → 1.53 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Poland 1.53 → 1.53, Draw 4.04 → 4.08, Romania 5.51 → 5.60.
Price changes
| When | Poland · our bet | Draw | Romania |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | 4.08+0.04 | 5.60+0.09 | |
| We published a Poland win at 1.53 | |||
| 1.53opened | 4.04opened | 5.51opened | |
How the match went
Romania's night turned on 22 minutes, when Radu Drăguşin was sent off, and two minutes later Robert Lewandowski converted a penalty to make it 1-0, the score at half-time. Poland needed only two minutes after the restart to double the lead through Lewandowski, then Virgil Ghiță turned the ball into his own net for 3-0 on 49 minutes. Piotr Zieliński added a fourth on 62 minutes, Jan Bednarek a fifth on 66, and Lewandowski completed his hat-trick on 86 to make it 6-0. We backed Poland to win at 1.53, and the bet landed. Poland's control was total: 3.47 expected goals to 0.56, 24 shots to 10, and 67% possession against 33%. Before kick-off Poland were priced at 1.53 to win, the draw 4.08, Romania 5.60; the goals market had over 2.5 at 1.74 against under at 2.01, and six goals went in, while both teams to score, offered at 1.84, missed with Romania unable to reply.
- 22'Radu Drăguşin RC
- 24'Robert Lewandowski penalty1:0
- 27'on Andrei Coubiș, off Valentin Mihăilă
- 35'Virgil Ghiță YC
- 39'Tudor Băluță YC
- 42'Robert Lewandowski YC
- 47'Robert Lewandowski (Nicola Zalewski)2:0
- 49'Virgil Ghiță own goal3:0
- 57'Karol Świderski YC
- 62'Piotr Zieliński4:0
- 63'on Norbert Wojtuszek, off Matty Cash
- 63'on Kacper Urbański, off Wiktor Nowak
- 66'Jan Bednarek (Sebastian Szymański)5:0
- 67'on Marius Marin, off Ianis Hagi
- 67'on Andrei Borza, off Nicușor Bancu
- 67'on Bogdan Racovițan, off Dennis Man
- 71'on Marcel Reguła, off Sebastian Szymański
- 71'on Bartosz Slisz, off Piotr Zieliński
- 73'Andrei Borza YC
- 78'on Oskar Pietuszewski, off Nicola Zalewski
- 78'on Cătălin Cîrjan, off Răzvan Marin
- 86'Robert Lewandowski (Oskar Pietuszewski)6:0
| Poland | stat | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 3.47 | expected goals (xG) | 0.56 |
| 24 | shots | 10 |
| 9 | on target | 3 |
| 67% | possession | 33% |
| 7 | corners | 1 |
| 9 | fouls | 11 |
| 3 | saves | 4 |
| 88% | pass accuracy | 75% |
| 2 | yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | red cards | 1 |
| -1.78 | goals prevented | -1.78 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Poland- 1Marcin Bułka7.0
- 19Przemysław Frankowski7.7
- 14Jakub Kiwior8.2
- 5Jan Bednarek8.9
- 2Matty Cash7.0
- 10Piotr Zieliński8.9
- 16Wiktor Nowak8.2
- 21Nicola Zalewski8.2
- 20Sebastian Szymański7.5
- 11Karol Świderski6.3
- 9Robert Lewandowski — highest feed rating in the match9.2
- 3Norbert Wojtuszekon 63'6.9
- 8Kacper Urbańskion 63'6.9
- 6Bartosz Sliszon 71'6.9
- 18Marcel Regułaon 71'6.9
- 7Oskar Pietuszewskion 78'6.9
- 12Mateusz Kochalski
- 22Sławomir Abramowicz
- 4Tomasz Kędziora
- 15Tymoteusz Puchacz
- 23Kacper Potulski
- 17Michał Skóraś
- 13Mateusz Żukowski
Romania- 12Ottó Hindrich4.9
- 11Nicușor Bancu5.7
- 5Virgil Ghiță5.2
- 3Radu Drăguşin3.5
- 2Andrei Rațiu6.0
- 13Valentin Mihăilă6.7
- 17Tudor Băluță6.9
- 18Răzvan Marin6.3
- 14Ianis Hagi5.9
- 9Daniel Bîrligea5.3
- 20Dennis Man6.0
- 4Andrei Coubișon 27'5.6
- 15Andrei Borzaon 67'6.3
- 22Bogdan Racovițanon 67'6.3
- 6Marius Marinon 67'6.3
- 19Cătălin Cîrjanon 78'6.3
- 1Ionuț Radu
- 16Valentin Cojocaru
- 23Tony Strata
- 7Florin Tănase
- 8Alexandru Cicâldău
- 10Nicolae Stanciu
- 21Olimpiu Moruțan
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Poland win — the bet won. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Poland −1.5. 4 more each on over 2.5 goals (won) and on both teams to score (lost). One more bet on Romania +1.5.
- 5 of 161our betodds 1.53
GrokMistral
SonarNemotron SuperNemotron Ultrawon - 4 of 16O 2.5odds 1.74
GeminiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxwon - 4 of 16BTTSodds 1.84ChatGPTClaudeKimiXiaomi MiMolost
- 2 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.58DeepSeek
Dots3-Notewon - 1 of 16H2 (+1.5)odds 1.55
GLMlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:50 UTC
Poland's two previous meetings with Romania, both in World Cup qualifying, went the way of the hosts: 3-1 at home in June 2017 and a comfortable away win in November 2016, when Romania did not score at all. The table adds urgency now. Romania are bottom of the Nations League group without a point after two matchdays, while Poland sit third on one point and have to start clawing back ground in front of their own supporters. The prices reflect all of that, with a 60% chance of a home win against 17% for Romania and the draw out at 4.04, and our pick is Poland to win at 1.53.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is obvious enough. Where is a convincing performance meant to come from when Poland themselves have taken just one point from two matchdays? The visitors arrive chasing their first points of the group, and head-to-heads from nine years ago say little about the current squads, so the draw at that price remains a live option.
- 5 of 16 AI models back this bet and 2 more chose a close bet in the same direction: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Poland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Sweden | A | 1:3 | L |
| 25.09 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | H | 0:0 | D |
| 03.06 | Nigeriafriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 31.05 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 31.03 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:3xG 1.4–1.5 | L |
| 26.03 | AlbaniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:1 | W |
| 17.11 | MaltaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 3:2xG 1.3–2.1 | W |
Romania| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | H | 2:4 | L |
| 25.09 | Sweden | A | 1:2 | L |
| 06.06 | Walesfriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 02.06 | Georgiafriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 31.03 | Slovakiafriendly | A | 0:2 | L |
| 26.03 | TurkeyWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | San MarinoWorld Cup qualifying | H | 7:1xG 5.3–0.2 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–0–0Poland wins · draws · Romania wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland vs Romania | 3:1 | 10.06.17 | World Cup qualifying |
| Romania vs Poland | 0:3 | 11.11.16 | World Cup qualifying |
- both scored in 1 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5–2 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4–2 | 4 | DW |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1–3 | 1 | DL |
| 4 | Romania | 2 | 0-0-2 | 3–6 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
