FINISHED
Portugal vs Norway 2:1: Nations League result and odds
Portugal vs Norway finished 2:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Portugal to win at 1.74, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Portugal to win
1.74AI models' pick · 11 of 14 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over 4 days a Portugal win shortened from 1.74 to 1.62 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Portugal: 1.74 → 1.62 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Portugal win) has shortened from 1.74 to 1.62: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Portugal · our bet | Draw | Norway |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62−0.12 | 4.36+0.40 | 4.70+0.61 | |
| We published a Portugal win at 1.74 | |||
| 1.74opened | 3.96opened | 4.09opened | |
How the match went
Norway led through Kristoffer Ajer on 36 minutes, assisted by Martin Ødegaard, but Portugal levelled two minutes later when João Cancelo finished off Nuno Mendes' pass, making it 1-1 at half-time. Gonçalo Ramos put Portugal ahead on 79 minutes from João Félix's assist for the 2-1 final score. Francisco Conceição was sent off on 86 minutes for two yellow cards in the same minute, and Bruno Fernandes was booked soon after. Portugal had much the better of the numbers, 1.78 expected goals against Norway's 0.45, 20 shots to 9 and 59% possession to 41%, though Norway's keeper made 5 saves to Portugal's 2. We backed Portugal to win at odds of 1.74, and the bet landed. Before kick-off the market had Portugal around 1.62 for the win, Norway out to 4.70 and the draw to 4.36; the over 2.5 goals market stood at 1.44, and both teams scored, matching the 1.34 price for that outcome.
- 12'João Cancelo YC
- 36'Kristoffer Ajer (Martin Ødegaard)0:1
- 38'João Cancelo (Nuno Mendes)1:1
- 63'on Rúben Neves, off João Palhinha
- 63'on Diogo Dalot, off João Cancelo
- 67'on Jørgen Strand Larsen, off Erling Haaland
- 74'on Oscar Bobb, off Antonio Nusa
- 79'Gonçalo Ramos (João Félix)2:1
- 86'Francisco Conceição YC
- 86'Francisco Conceição YC
- 86'Francisco Conceição RC
- 86'on Bernardo Silva, off Vitinha
- 87'on Thelo Aasgaard, off Patrick Berg
- 88'Bruno Fernandes YC
- 90'on Francisco Trincão, off Bruno Fernandes
- 90'on Nuno Tavares, off João Félix
| Portugal | stat | Norway |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | expected goals (xG) | 0.45 |
| 20 | shots | 9 |
| 7 | on target | 3 |
| 59% | possession | 41% |
| 6 | corners | 4 |
| 8 | fouls | 7 |
| 2 | saves | 5 |
| 87% | pass accuracy | 78% |
| 4 | yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | red cards | 0 |
| -1.33 | goals prevented | -1.33 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Portugal- 1Diogo Costa5.9
- 19Nuno Mendes7.3
- 13Renato Veiga7.0
- 3Rúben Dias6.9
- 20João Cancelo7.5
- 6João Palhinha6.9
- 8Bruno Fernandes7.0
- 23Vitinha7.7
- 14Francisco Conceição6.5
- 11João Félix — highest feed rating in the match7.9
- 9Gonçalo Ramos6.9
- 2Diogo Daloton 63'7.0
- 21Rúben Neveson 63'6.9
- 10Bernardo Silvaon 86'6.3
- 5Nuno Tavareson 90'
- 16Francisco Trincãoon 90'
- 22Samuel Soares
- 12Rui Silva
- 4Tomás Araújo
- 15João Neves
- 17Pedro Neto
- 7Rafael Leão
- 18Fábio Silva
Norway- 13Egil Selvik5.5
- 5David Møller Wolfe6.3
- 4Leo Østigård7.3
- 3Kristoffer Ajer7.9
- 7Fredrik Aursnes6.2
- 6Patrick Berg6.7
- 8Sander Berge6.2
- 20Antonio Nusa6.9
- 10Martin Ødegaard7.3
- 21Andreas Schjelderup6.7
- 9Erling Haaland6.2
- 11Jørgen Strand Larsenon 67'6.3
- 22Oscar Bobbon 74'6.2
- 19Thelo Aasgaardon 87'6.3
- 1Ørjan Nyland
- 12Sander Tangvik
- 2Odin Luras Bjørtuft
- 14Fredrik Sjøvold
- 15Sondre Langås
- 16Marcus Pedersen
- 18Kristian Thorstvedt
- 17Ole Didrik Blomberg
- 23Erik Botheim
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Portugal win — the bet won. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Portugal −1.5. The other 2 chose a bet each: both teams to score and a total-goals bet.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 10:04 UTC
Portugal beat this same Norway 2-1 in Oslo just a week ago, and that remains the only previous meeting between the two. After two rounds the hosts sit top with 6 points, Norway second with 3, and now the same opponent comes to Portuguese soil. The prices read 1.74 for a home win, 4.09 for the visitors and 3.96 for the draw — once the margin is removed that is around 54% for Portugal, more than the draw and a Norway win combined. Our pick is Portugal to win.
Where we could be wrong
The catch is that a single goal settled things in Oslo, and Norway found the net there. A side that can respond like that is capable of digging out a draw and keeping the gap at three points. A cautious approach built on quick breaks forward suits the away side well, and one mistake at the back from the hosts would change the game immediately.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Portugal| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Norway | A | 2:1 | W |
| 24.09 | Wales | H | 1:0 | W |
| 06.07 | SpainWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 0.6–1.7 | L |
| 02.07 | CroatiaWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 2.2–1.3 | W |
| 27.06 | ColombiaWorld Cup | A | 0:0xG 0.9–1.7 | D |
| 23.06 | UzbekistanWorld Cup | H | 5:0xG 2.6–0.2 | W |
| 17.06 | Congo DRWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 0.7–0.9 | D |
Norway| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Portugal | H | 1:2 | L |
| 24.09 | Denmark | H | 3:2 | W |
| 11.07 | EnglandWorld Cup | H | 1:2xG 0.7–1.0 | L |
| 05.07 | BrazilWorld Cup | A | 2:1xG 1.1–2.6 | W |
| 30.06 | Ivory CoastWorld Cup | A | 2:1xG 2.0–1.4 | W |
| 26.06 | FranceWorld Cup | H | 1:4xG 1.7–1.5 | L |
| 23.06 | SenegalWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 2.2–1.7 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–0Portugal wins · draws · Norway wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway vs Portugal | 1:2 | 27.09.26 |
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3–1 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Norway | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–4 | 3 | WL |
| 3 | Denmark | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–3 | 3 | LW |
| 4 | Wales | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0–3 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
