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Romania vs Sweden 0:1: Nations League result and odds
Romania vs Sweden finished 0:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Sweden to win at 1.74, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Sweden to win
1.74AI models' pick · 12 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Viktor Gyökeres settled this one, finishing on 13 minutes to put Sweden 1-0 up, and that stayed the score through half-time and the final whistle. Romania had 52% of the ball against 48% and 13 shots to 12, yet Sweden's keeper made four saves to Romania's one and finished with an expected-goals tally of 2.84 against Romania's 0.56, far beyond what the single goal suggested. Nicușor Bancu was booked inside five minutes and did not return after the interval; cards finished four for Romania, two for Sweden. Our bet was Sweden to win at 1.74, given a 53% chance before kick-off, and it landed. Under 2.5 goals also came in with just the one scored, while both teams to score missed as Romania failed to reply.
- 5'Nicușor Bancu YC
- 13'Viktor Gyökeres0:1
- 46'on Lisav Naif Eissat, off Nicușor Bancu
- 48'Răzvan Marin YC
- 53'Felix Beijmo YC
- 54'on Daniel Svensson, off Gabriel Gudmundsson
- 54'on Hugo Larsson, off Jesper Karlström
- 62'Alexander Bernhardsson YC
- 69'on Valentin Mihăilă, off Răzvan Marin
- 69'on Alexandru Cicâldău, off Darius Olaru
- 69'on Ianis Hagi, off Nicolae Stanciu
- 75'on Hugo Bolin, off Besfort Zeneli
- 77'on Samuel Dahl, off Sebastian Nanasi
- 82'Valentin Mihăilă YC
- 83'on Cătălin Cîrjan, off Florin Tănase
- 89'on Hampus Skoglund, off Alexander Bernhardsson
- 90+3'Cătălin Cîrjan YC
| Romania | stat | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | expected goals (xG) | 2.84 |
| 13 | shots | 12 |
| 4 | on target | 2 |
| 52% | possession | 48% |
| 5 | corners | 4 |
| 15 | fouls | 11 |
| 1 | saves | 4 |
| 88% | pass accuracy | 85% |
| 4 | yellow cards | 2 |
| 0.41 | goals prevented | 0.41 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Romania- 12Ottó Hindrich7.3
- 11Nicușor Bancu6.0
- 3Matei Ilie7.3
- 4Andrei Coubiș7.3
- 2Andrei Rațiu6.9
- 18Răzvan Marin6.9
- 22Vlad Dragomir6.7
- 7Darius Olaru6.9
- 10Nicolae Stanciu7.0
- 20Dennis Man6.3
- 9Florin Tănase6.7
- 5Lisav Naif Eissaton 46'7.2
- 8Alexandru Cicâldăuon 69'6.9
- 13Valentin Mihăilăon 69'6.2
- 14Ianis Hagion 69'6.9
- 19Cătălin Cîrjanon 83'6.5
- 1Ionuț Radu
- 16Valentin Cojocaru
- 15Raul Opruț
- 17Vladimir Screciu
- 23Tony Strata
- 6Tudor Băluță
- 21Olimpiu Moruțan
Sweden- 12Viktor Johansson7.3
- 5Gabriel Gudmundsson6.9
- 3Victor Lindelöf7.2
- 4Eric Smith — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 2Felix Beijmo7.0
- 16Jesper Karlström6.6
- 7Lucas Bergvall7.2
- 19Sebastian Nanasi7.2
- 22Besfort Zeneli6.6
- 21Alexander Bernhardsson7.0
- 17Viktor Gyökeres7.6
- 8Daniel Svenssonon 54'7.2
- 20Hugo Larssonon 54'6.9
- 10Hugo Bolinon 75'6.6
- 18Samuel Dahlon 77'6.3
- 14Hampus Skoglundon 89'
- 1Noel Törnqvist
- 23Melker Ellborg
- 15Victor Eriksson
- 13Ken Sema
- 9Paulos Abraham
- 11Williot Swedberg
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Sweden win — the bet won. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Sweden −1.5. 3 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:55 UTC
The group table backs the market here. Sweden sit top with 7 points after three rounds, while Romania are fourth and still waiting for their first point. The previous meetings tell a similar story: Romania have one win and three defeats in the last four, and Sweden came through 2-1 in September. Three games without a point give the hosts very little to lean on, and no obvious reason to expect the turnaround to arrive now. At 1.74, the odds put Sweden at 54%, and our pick is the away win.
Where we could be wrong
But what about a Romania side with nothing left to lose, pushing forward from the first minute? Sweden have dropped two points of their own in three rounds, and in March 2018 the Romanians beat them 1-0 at home. An open game can turn this one around in a hurry.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Romania| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Poland | A | 0:6 | L |
| 28.09 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | H | 2:4 | L |
| 25.09 | Sweden | A | 1:2 | L |
| 06.06 | Walesfriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 02.06 | Georgiafriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 31.03 | Slovakiafriendly | A | 0:2 | L |
| 26.03 | TurkeyWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | San MarinoWorld Cup qualifying | H | 7:1xG 5.3–0.2 | W |
Sweden| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | A | 1:1 | D |
| 28.09 | Poland | H | 3:1 | W |
| 25.09 | Romania | H | 2:1 | W |
| 30.06 | FranceWorld Cup | A | 0:3xG 0.7–3.2 | L |
| 25.06 | JapanWorld Cup | A | 1:1xG 0.6–1.2 | D |
| 20.06 | NetherlandsWorld Cup | A | 1:5xG 1.0–2.6 | L |
| 15.06 | TunisiaWorld Cup | H | 5:1xG 1.3–0.3 | W |
| 04.06 | Greecefriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–3Romania wins · draws · Sweden wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden vs Romania | 2:1 | 25.09.26 | |
| Romania vs Sweden | 0:2 | 15.11.19 | Euro |
| Sweden vs Romania | 2:1 | 23.03.19 | Euro |
| Romania vs Sweden | 1:0 | 27.03.18 | friendly |
- both scored in 2 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6–3 | 7 | WWD |
| 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 1-2-0 | 5–3 | 5 | DWD |
| 3 | Poland | 3 | 1-1-1 | 7–3 | 4 | DLW |
| 4 | Romania | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3–12 | 0 | LLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
