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Scotland vs Slovenia 1:2: Nations League result and odds
Scotland vs Slovenia finished 1:2 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.60, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.60AI models' pick · 11 of 15 for this bet, 4 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Scotland led at the break after Ryan Christie's goal in the 31st minute, assisted by Oliver McBurnie, but Slovenia turned it around after half-time. Aljosa Matko equalised on 56 minutes, set up by Danijel Sturm, and Sturm put Slovenia ahead on 71 minutes with Matko returning the assist, as Slovenia won 2-1. Our selection on the under for total goals, odds 1.60, went down once Sturm's strike made it three. Scotland had 54% of possession against 46% and led on shots 12 to 10, six on target to three, yet it was Slovenia who managed five saves and four corners to one. Before kick-off the market had Scotland to win at 1.77, the draw at 3.39 and Slovenia to win at 4.60, with the over/under line set at 2.24 for over and 1.60 for under.
- 30'Erik Janža YC
- 31'Ryan Christie (Oliver McBurnie)1:0
- 44'John McGinn YC
- 54'David Zec YC
- 56'Aljosa Matko (Danijel Sturm)1:1
- 66'on Kieron Bowie, off Oliver McBurnie
- 66'on Aaron Hickey, off Stephen Welsh
- 68'Luis Binks YC
- 71'Danijel Sturm (Aljosa Matko)1:2
- 72'on Josh Mcpake, off Ryan Christie
- 73'on Findlay Curtis, off Ben Gannon-Doak
- 79'on Žan Celar, off Zan Vipotnik
- 85'Mark Zabukovnik YC
- 87'on Robbie Ure, off John McGinn
- 89'on Srđan Kuzmić, off Aljosa Matko
- 90+2'Žan Celar YC
| Scotland | stat | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | shots | 10 |
| 6 | on target | 3 |
| 54% | possession | 46% |
| 1 | corners | 4 |
| 11 | fouls | 16 |
| 0 | saves | 5 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Scotland- 1A. Gunn6.5
- 4L. Binks6.3
- 13J. Hendry7.0
- 5S. Welsh6.8
- 3A. Robertson6.4
- 8B. Gilmour6.3
- 19L. Ferguson6.9
- 7J. McGinn6.0
- 17B. Doak6.2
- 11R. Christie7.6
- 9O. McBurnie6.9
- 20K. Bowieon 66'6.7
- 15J. McPakeon 72'6.6
- 23Kristi Montgomery
- 14L. Miller
- 21S. Bain
- 16Findlay Curtison 73'6.6
- 6J. Doig
- 22N. Patterson
- 18L. Graham
- 2A. Hickeyon 66'6.5
- 10R. Ureon 87'6.2
- 12L. Kelly
Slovenia- 1J. Oblak7.2
- 13E. Janža6.1
- 17D. Zec6.4
- 6J. Bijol7.3
- 23D. Brekalo7.1
- 2Ž. Karničnik6.6
- 15D. Šturm — highest feed rating in the match8.9
- 22A. Čerin6.4
- 4M. Zabukovnik6.0
- 20A. Matko8.2
- 18Z. Vipotnik6.3
- 11Ž. Celaron 79'6.2
- 21V. Drkušić
- 10T. Elšnik
- 19T. Horvat
- 5S. Kuzmićon 89'6.3
- 8S. Lovrić
- 14T. Svetlin
- 7J. Urbančič
- 16I. Vekič
- 12M. Vidovšek
- 3J. Balkovec
- 9T. Begić
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 3 more bet on a Scotland win — the bet lost. One more bet on Slovenia not losing.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:24 UTC
Two sides that could not break each other down ten days ago are unlikely to suddenly throw caution to the wind. Slovenia and Scotland drew 0-0 at the end of September, and in all three previous meetings Scotland have one win and two draws without a defeat. The prices point the same way: 1.77 on the hosts against 4.6 on the visitors, with under 2.5 goals rated at 58%. The group is as tight as it gets in this Nations League, four points each after three rounds, and the cost of a mistake pushes both teams to defend first.
Where we could be wrong
Home advantage and the points Scotland need right now could nudge the hosts in front inside the first half. One early goal would change the whole picture: Slovenia would have to open up, and in that kind of game the second goal usually follows quickly. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.60.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Scotland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | North Macedonia | A | 2:0 | W |
| 29.09 | Switzerland | H | 0:3 | L |
| 26.09 | Slovenia | A | 0:0 | D |
| 24.06 | BrazilWorld Cup | H | 0:3xG 1.0–4.3 | L |
| 19.06 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 0.5–1.0 | L |
| 14.06 | HaitiWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.1–1.1 | W |
| 06.06 | Boliviafriendly | A | 4:0 | W |
| 30.05 | Curaçaofriendly | H | 4:1 | W |
Slovenia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Switzerland | A | 1:2 | L |
| 29.09 | North Macedonia | H | 2:0 | W |
| 26.09 | Scotland | H | 0:0 | D |
| 07.06 | Croatiafriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 04.06 | Cyprusfriendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 31.03 | Montenegrofriendly | A | 3:2 | W |
| 28.03 | Hungaryfriendly | A | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1xG 2.2–1.0 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–2–0Scotland wins · draws · Slovenia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia vs Scotland | 0:0 | 26.09.26 | |
| Slovenia vs Scotland | 2:2 | 08.10.17 | World Cup qualifying |
| Scotland vs Slovenia | 1:0 | 26.03.17 | World Cup qualifying |
- both scored in 1 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8–1 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Slovenia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3–2 | 4 | DWL |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2–3 | 4 | DLW |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 0–7 | 0 | LLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
