FINISHED
Serbia vs Greece 1:2: Nations League result and odds
Serbia vs Greece finished 1:2 in the Nations League. Before the match we gathered the line of 9 bookmakers and the bets of 16 AI models — below are the analysis, the odds and how the prediction did.
- Referee: Glenn Nyberg
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.72AI models' pick · 10 of 16 for this bet, 6 for others
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
the same bet at other prices
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- safer and riskier
- Safer is the same event, only wider: it also comes in when the main bet does not, so the price is lower. Riskier is the same event, only narrower. We do not consider either option better value than the other: it is one and the same estimate phrased differently, and the price only reflects how widely it is phrased.
AI models
- 10U 2.5odds 1.72ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, Qwen, MiniMax, Sonar, Nemotron Ultra
- 2X2odds 1.48GLM, Dots3-Note
- 11Xodds 1.45Xiaomi MiMo
- 1BTTSodds 1.82Mistral
- 11odds 2.57DeepSeek Flash
- 1Xodds 3.26Ling 3.0 Flash VL
What the odds were
Over 3 days a Serbia win drifted from 2.57 to 2.90 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.72 → 1.61 since we published · Greece became the favourite in 1X2View
Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has shortened from 1.72 to 1.61: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 2.31+0.09 | 1.61−0.06 | |
| 2.22+0.11 | 1.67−0.06 | |
| 2.11−0.03 | 1.73+0.02 | |
| 2.14+0.04 | 1.71−0.01 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | ||
| We published under 2.5 goals at 1.72 | ||
| 2.10opened | 1.72opened | |
All snapshots (19)
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.31 | 1.61 | |
| 2.22 | 1.67 | |
| 2.22 | 1.67 | |
| 2.22 | 1.67 | |
| 2.11 | 1.73 | |
| 2.11 | 1.73 | |
| 2.11 | 1.73 | |
| 2.11 | 1.73 | |
| 2.11 | 1.73 | |
| 2.11 | 1.73 | |
| 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| 2.10 | 1.72 | |
| 2.10 | 1.72 | |
| 2.10 | 1.72 | |
| 2.10 | 1.72 | |
| 2.10 | 1.72 | |
| 2.10 | 1.72 | |
| 2.10 | 1.72 |
How the match went
- 4'Andrija Živković (Dušan Tadić)1:0
- 45'on Saša Lukić, off Mihajlo Cvetkovic
- 63'Dušan Tadić YC
- 63'on Fotis Ioannidis, off Charalampos Kostoulas
- 71'on Dejan Joveljić, off Luka Jovic
- 71'on Aleksa Terzić, off Filip Kostić
- 72'Aleksa Terzić YC
- 74'Christos Tzolis (Vangelis Pavlidis)1:1
- 74'on Andrews Tetteh, off Vangelis Pavlidis
- 74'on Anastasios Douvikas, off Konstantinos Karetsas
- 81'on Nemanja Gudelj, off Nikola Simić
- 83'Christos Zafeiris YC
- 90'on Petar Sukacev, off Dušan Tadić
- 90+1'on Giannis Michailidis, off Konstantinos Mavropanos
- 90+1'on Athanasios Androutsos, off Christos Zafeiris
- 90+4'Anastasios Douvikas (Konstantinos Tsimikas)1:2
| Serbia | stat | Greece |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | shots | 26 |
| 4 | on target | 9 |
| 39% | possession | 61% |
| 2 | corners | 6 |
| 11 | fouls | 7 |
| 7 | saves | 3 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 1 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from the statistics provider API-Football — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Serbia- 23V. Milinković-Savić — highest feed rating in the match8.4
- 11F. Kostić6.9
- 3S. Pavlović7.0
- 16S. Eraković6.8
- 13N. Simić6.6
- 18M. CvetkoviÄ6.2
- 20S. Milinković-Savić6.4
- 5N. Maksimović6.6
- 14A. Živković8.0
- 10D. Tadić6.3
- 8L. Jović6.5
- 15S. Babić
- 6N. Gudeljon 81'6.1
- 9D. Joveljićon 71'6.3
- 19V. Kostov
- 4V. Dragojević
- 22S. Lukićon 45'6.1
- 1Đ. Petrović
- 21L. Samardžić
- 7A. Stanković
- 12F. Stanković
- 2P. Sukacevon 90'0.0
- 17A. Terzićon 71'6.2
Greece- 12K. Tzolakis6.3
- 21K. Tsimikas7.4
- 5P. Retsos6.9
- 4K. Mavropanos7.3
- 2G. Vagiannidis6.8
- 10C. Tzolis8.2
- 20C. Zafeiris6.6
- 6D. Kourbelis7.2
- 19K. Karetsas6.2
- 14V. Pavlidis7.2
- 11C. Kostoulas6.4
- 8F. Ioannidison 63'6.6
- 3K. Koulierakis
- 22G. Kiriakopoulos
- 13C. Mandas
- 7G. Masouras
- 18G. Michailidison 90+1'0.0
- 23C. Mouzakitis
- 17M. Saliakas
- 16A. Tettehon 74'6.9
- 1O. Vlachodimos
- 15T. Androutsoson 90+1'0.0
- 9T. Douvikason 74'7.8
AI prediction and analysis
10 of 16 AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 2 more bet on Greece not losing — the bet won. The other 4 chose a bet each: double chance, both teams to score, a Serbia win and a draw. 5 bet on the match result and 11 on goals.
- 10 of 16U 2.5our betodds 1.72ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiQwenMiniMax
SonarNemotron Ultralost - 2 of 16X2odds 1.48GLMDots3-Notewon
- 1 of 161Xodds 1.45Xiaomi MiMolost
- 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.82Mistralwon
- 1 of 161odds 2.57DeepSeek Flashlost
- 1 of 16Xodds 3.26Ling 3.0 Flash VLlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 21.09 at 20:13 UTC
Serbia and Greece are separated by almost nothing in the market: a home win is priced at 2.57, an away win at 2.66. The draw is rated at 29%, a notable share for the opening round of the Nations League, where evenly matched sides are happy not to take risks and to defend their goal first. The goal markets lean the same way — the bookmakers make it 55% that this one finishes with no more than two goals, and the price of 1.72 reflects that. Under 2.5 goals is our pick.
The caution should hold only while the scores are level. An early goal would force the side behind to open up, and a third could follow quickly after that. There is also no recent form to go on for either team, so the expectation of a tight, cagey game rests on the odds alone.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Our pick: under 2.5 goals.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Serbia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.06 | Mexicofriendly | A | 1:5 | L |
| 31.05 | Cape Verde Islandsfriendly | A | 0:3 | L |
| 31.03 | Saudi Arabiafriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 27.03 | Spainfriendly | A | 0:3 | L |
| 26.03 | Qatarfriendly | A | — | |
| 16.11 | LatviaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:1xG 2.0–1.5 | W |
Greece| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.06 | Italyfriendly | H | 0:1 | L |
| 04.06 | Swedenfriendly | A | 2:2 | D |
| 31.03 | Hungaryfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 27.03 | Paraguayfriendly | H | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | BelarusWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:0xG 1.2–0.4 | D |
| 15.11 | ScotlandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 3:2xG 2.8–1.5 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Serbia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Greece | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
