29 Sep
Slovenia vs North Macedonia: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 29 September, Slovenia host North Macedonia in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is Slovenia to win at 1.65: 6 of 16 models chose it, 5 more went in the same direction.
published UTC
AI models' pick: Slovenia to win
1.65AI models' pick · 6 of 16 on this bet · 5 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 8 won · 7 lost · 1 void · −0.04 units All results
AI models
- 61 — matches our betodds 1.65ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi, Qwen, Sonar, Nemotron Super
- 5H1 (-1) — matches our betodds 2.27DeepSeek, DeepSeek Flash, Xiaomi MiMo, Dots3-Note, Nemotron Ultra
- 4U 2.5odds 1.68Grok, GLM, MiniMax, Mistral
- 1BTTS noodds 1.68Claude
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Slovenia: 1.65 → 1.65 since we publishedView
The biggest move is a Slovenia win: from 1.67 to 1.65.
our price: 1 1.75 · X 3.85 · 2 5.88 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side
Price changes
| When | Slovenia · our bet | Draw | North Macedonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 3.58+0.01 | 5.57+0.06 | |
| We published a Slovenia win at 1.65 | |||
| 1.65−0.01 | 3.57 | 5.51+0.14 | |
| 1.66−0.01 | 3.57 | 5.37+0.26 | |
| 1.67opened | 3.57opened | 5.11opened | |
All snapshots (6)
| When | Slovenia | Draw | North Macedonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 3.58 | 5.57 | |
| 1.65 | 3.57 | 5.51 | |
| 1.65 | 3.57 | 5.51 | |
| 1.65 | 3.57 | 5.51 | |
| 1.66 | 3.57 | 5.37 | |
| 1.67 | 3.57 | 5.11 |
AI prediction and analysis
6 of 16 AI models went for a Slovenia win. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: Slovenia −1. 4 more went for under 2.5 goals. One more went for at least one side failing to score. 11 are betting on the match result and 5 on goals.
- 6 of 161our betodds 1.65ChatGPTGeminiKimiQwenSonarNemotron Super
- 5 of 16H1 (-1)same directionodds 2.27DeepSeekDeepSeek FlashXiaomi MiMoDots3-NoteNemotron Ultra
- 4 of 16U 2.5odds 1.68GrokGLMMiniMaxMistral
- 1 of 16BTTS noodds 1.68Claude
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 27.09 at 09:54 UTC
Slovenia sit third with one point after the opening round, while North Macedonia prop up the group without a point and already have ground to make up. That puts the visitors in the awkward position of having to open up, and a home game against an opponent who must take risks suits Slovenia, who build everything on a compact defence. The market leans the same way: the hosts are rated at 57% at odds of 1.65, and over the past 24 hours the prices have drifted further in their favour, with an away win out from 5.11 to 5.51. Our pick is Slovenia to win.
The head-to-head record is the warning. Slovenia have not beaten North Macedonia in the last three meetings: two draws and a defeat in Euro qualifying in the autumn of 2019. The visitors know how to sit low and grind through, and if Slovenia keep running into a crowded box, one chance may not be enough to land the bet.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Most likely outcome: Slovenia to win.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Slovenia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.09 | Scotland | H | 0:0 | D |
| 07.06 | Croatiafriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 04.06 | Cyprusfriendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 31.03 | Montenegrofriendly | A | 3:2 | W |
| 28.03 | Hungaryfriendly | A | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1xG 2.2–1.0 | D |
North Macedonia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.09 | Switzerland | H | 0:3 | L |
| 01.06 | Turkeyfriendly | A | 0:4 | L |
| 29.05 | Bosnia and Herzegovinafriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 31.03 | Republic of Irelandfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 26.03 | DenmarkWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:4 | L |
| 18.11 | WalesWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:7xG 0.6–4.6 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–2–1Slovenia wins · draws · North Macedonia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Macedonia vs Slovenia | 1:1 | 01.06.21 | friendly |
| North Macedonia vs Slovenia | 2:1 | 10.10.19 | Euro |
| Slovenia vs North Macedonia | 1:1 | 24.03.19 | Euro |
- both scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Scotland | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
| 3 | Slovenia | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–3 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
