FINISHED
Spain vs Czechia 3:1: Nations League result and odds
Spain vs Czechia finished 3:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Spain −2.5 handicap at 1.97, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Spain −2.5 handicap
1.97AI models' pick · 15 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day a Czechia win drifted from 22.00 to 27.94 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementCzechia 22.00 → 27.94 over the day · 2 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Spain win: from 1.10 to 1.07.
Price changes
| When | Spain | Draw | Czechia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.07−0.03 | 11.03+1.92 | 27.94+5.94 | |
| 1.10opened | 9.11opened | 22.00opened |
How the match went
Lamine Yamal put Spain ahead in the 6th minute, assisted by D. Olmo, and Rodri doubled the lead on 35 minutes for a 2-0 half-time score. Czechia replied through J. Slama on 69, set up by A. Hlozek, before M. Merino made it 3-1 in the 89th, by which point Czechia were down to ten men after Ladislav Krejčí's second yellow became a red. The numbers matched the scoreline for once: 1.99 expected goals to 0.49, 18 shots to five, 10 on target to two, and 69% of the possession against 31%, though Czechia's goalkeeper made seven saves. Our Spain -2.5 handicap at odds of 1.97 missed by a single goal. The market had Spain winning at 1.07, the draw above eleven and Czechia above twenty-seven; the over landed as four goals went in, and both teams scored too.
- 6'Lamine Yamal (D. Olmo)1:0
- 35'Rodri2:0
- 46'on Y. Pino, off A. Baena
- 46'on V. Munoz, off Lamine Yamal
- 57'on L. Cerv, off R. Macek
- 57'on R. Naderi, off L. Ambros
- 67'on M. Merino, off Pedri
- 67'on Fermin, off D. Olmo
- 69'J. Slama (A. Hlozek)2:1
- 73'on P. Bucha, off M. Radosta
- 73'on M. Sadilek, off A. Kral
- 77'on M. Zubimendi, off Rodri
- 79'Ladislav Krejčí YC
- 82'Michal Sadílek YC
- 85'Ladislav Krejčí YC
- 85'Ladislav Krejčí RC
- 87'on M. Vitik, off A. Hlozek
- 89'Ondrej Lingr YC
- 89'M. Merino3:1
- 90'Štěpán Chaloupek YC
- 90+1'Antonín Kinský YC
- 90+3'Fermín López YC
| Spain | stat | Czechia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.99 | expected goals (xG) | 0.49 |
| 18 | shots | 5 |
| 10 | on target | 2 |
| 69% | possession | 31% |
| 5 | corners | 0 |
| 11 | fouls | 13 |
| 1 | saves | 7 |
| 92% | pass accuracy | 82% |
| 1 | yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | red cards | 1 |
| 0.63 | goals prevented | 0.63 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Spain- 1D. Raya6.0
- 5F. Garcia7.2
- 14A. Laporte6.9
- 3R. Le Normand7.2
- 4I. Fresneda6.6
- 20Pedri7.2
- 16Rodri — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 10D. Olmo6.9
- 15A. Baena6.9
- 17R. Fernandez7.3
- 19Lamine Yamal7.9
- 23U. Simon
- 13J. Martinez
- 2D. Huijsen
- 22M. Cucurella
- 12M. Pubill
- 18M. Zubimendion 77'6.7
- 6M. Merinoon 67'7.0
- 9Ferminon 67'6.3
- 21M. Oyarzabal
- 11Y. Pinoon 46'6.9
- 7V. Munozon 46'6.3
Czechia- 23A. Kinsky7.7
- 22M. Sacek6.3
- 6S. Chaloupek6.6
- 7L. Krejci6.0
- 5J. Slama7.2
- 21A. Kral6.2
- 19R. Macek6.9
- 18M. Radosta5.9
- 13L. Ambros6.3
- 20O. Lingr5.9
- 10A. Hlozek7.2
- 1M. Kovar
- 16L. Hornicek
- 3O. Zmrzly
- 4R. Hranac
- 14M. Vitikon 87'6.3
- 17P. Buchaon 73'6.2
- 12L. Cervon 57'6.5
- 2O. Kricfalusi
- 8M. Sadilekon 73'6.7
- 15M. Subert
- 9R. Naderion 57'6.6
- 11D. Vasulin
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Spain −2.5 — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: a Spain win.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:50 UTC
Spain have not managed to win by a wide margin against Czechia in recent years: 2-0 in June 2022, a 2-2 draw a week earlier and a narrow 1-0 at the Euros in 2016. The group table tells a very different story, though. La Roja are top with six points from six, while Czechia sit bottom of the quartet without a point. The hosts are priced at 1.10 against 22 for the visitors, and once the margin is removed that leaves Spain around 85%. The Spain -2.5 handicap is rated at 49% — almost an even chance at odds of around two — and that is our pick.
Where we could be wrong
Czechia only need to avoid conceding a third goal for the bet to go down: a 2-0 or 2-1 win is not enough to land it. And if Spain settle the result early, the tempo in the second half drops of its own accord, and the margin we need may never arrive.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Spain| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | Croatia | H | 4:1 | W |
| 26.09 | England | A | 3:2 | W |
| 19.07 | ArgentinaWorld Cup | H | 1:0xG 1.9–0.2 | W |
| 14.07 | FranceWorld Cup | A | 2:0xG 1.6–0.3 | W |
| 10.07 | BelgiumWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 2.1–0.4 | W |
| 06.07 | PortugalWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.7–0.6 | W |
| 02.07 | AustriaWorld Cup | H | 3:0xG 2.8–0.3 | W |
Czechia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | England | H | 0:2 | L |
| 26.09 | Croatia | H | 1:2 | L |
| 25.06 | MexicoWorld Cup | H | 0:3xG 0.5–1.7 | L |
| 18.06 | South AfricaWorld Cup | H | 1:1xG 1.0–1.4 | D |
| 12.06 | South KoreaWorld Cup | A | 1:2xG 0.8–2.3 | L |
| 05.06 | Guatemalafriendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 31.05 | Kosovofriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–1–0Spain wins · draws · Czechia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs Czechia | 2:0 | 12.06.22 | |
| Czechia vs Spain | 2:2 | 05.06.22 | |
| Spain vs Czechia | 1:0 | 13.06.16 | Euro |
- both scored in 1 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7–3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | England | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–3 | 3 | LW |
| 3 | Croatia | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3–5 | 3 | WL |
| 4 | Czechia | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1–4 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
