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Sweden vs Poland: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 28 September, Sweden host Poland in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.60: 6 of 16 models chose it.
- Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
- Nations League, matchday 2 of 6
published UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.60AI models' pick · 6 of 16 for this bet, 10 for others
Split panelAI models' settled picks so far: 8 won · 7 lost · 1 void · −0.04 units All results
the same bet at other prices
what these numbers mean
- safer and riskier
- Safer is the same event, only wider: it also comes in when the main bet does not, so the price is lower. Riskier is the same event, only narrower. We do not consider either option better value than the other: it is one and the same estimate phrased differently, and the price only reflects how widely it is phrased.
AI models
- 6BTTS — matches our betodds 1.60Claude, Qwen, GLM, Mistral, Xiaomi MiMo, Dots3-Note
- 5O 2.5odds 1.70ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi
- 41odds 1.92DeepSeek Flash, MiniMax, Sonar, Nemotron Super
- 1H2 (+1)odds 1.47Nemotron Ultra
Match odds
Over the day the line on the result has held: prices have not moved by a single tick.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.60 → 1.60 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.60 → 1.60, No 2.23 → 2.24.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| We published both teams score at 1.60 | ||
| 1.60 | 2.24+0.01 | |
| 1.60opened | 2.23opened | |
All snapshots (6)
| When | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | 2.24 | |
| 1.60 | 2.24 | |
| 1.60 | 2.24 | |
| 1.60 | 2.24 | |
| 1.60 | 2.23 | |
| 1.60 | 2.23 |
AI prediction and analysis
6 of 16 AI models went for both teams to score. 5 more went for over 2.5 goals. The other 5 chose other bets: a Sweden win and a Poland handicap. 5 are betting on the match result and 11 on goals.
- 6 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.60ClaudeQwenGLMMistralXiaomi MiMoDots3-Note
- 5 of 16O 2.5odds 1.70ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimi
- 4 of 161odds 1.92DeepSeek FlashMiniMaxSonarNemotron Super
- 1 of 16H2 (+1)odds 1.47Nemotron Ultra
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 27.09 at 09:54 UTC
The last two meetings between these sides both finished 3-2 — in March in Stockholm in World Cup qualifying and at the Euros in 2021 — and both teams scored on each occasion. Sweden sit top of the group with 3 points after the opening round, Poland have just one, so the visitors arrive in no position to sit deep. The market gives both teams scoring a 58% chance, and matching odds of 3.66 on the draw and on a Poland win suggest there is little doubt about the away side finding the net in Stockholm.
The third match of that run looked very different, though: Poland won 2-0 in Sweden in 2022, so a game in which one of the two is kept off the scoresheet is a realistic outcome here. The hosts also have the option of a cautious approach — with points already banked in the group, Sweden can set up from the back and take half the goalscoring chances out of the game. Our pick is both teams to score at 1.60.
Where we could be wrong
- 6 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
Bottom line. Our pick: both teams to score.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Sweden| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09 | Romania | H | 2:1 | W |
| 30.06 | FranceWorld Cup | A | 0:3xG 0.7–3.2 | L |
| 25.06 | JapanWorld Cup | A | 1:1xG 0.6–1.2 | D |
| 20.06 | NetherlandsWorld Cup | A | 1:5xG 1.0–2.6 | L |
| 15.06 | TunisiaWorld Cup | H | 5:1xG 1.3–0.3 | W |
| 04.06 | Greecefriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
Poland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | H | 0:0 | D |
| 03.06 | Nigeriafriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 31.05 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 31.03 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:3xG 1.4–1.5 | L |
| 26.03 | AlbaniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:1 | W |
| 17.11 | MaltaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 3:2xG 1.3–2.1 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–0–1Sweden wins · draws · Poland wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden vs Poland | 3:2 | 31.03.26 | World Cup qualifying |
| Poland vs Sweden | 2:0 | 29.03.22 | World Cup qualifying |
| Sweden vs Poland | 3:2 | 23.06.21 | Euro |
- both scored in 2 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2–1 | 3 | W |
| 2 | Poland | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0–0 | 1 | D |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
