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Switzerland vs Slovenia 2:1: Nations League result and odds
Switzerland vs Slovenia finished 2:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Switzerland −1.5 handicap at 2.05, and it lost.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Switzerland −1.5 handicap
2.05AI models' pick · 11 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Slovenia led two minutes in through Z. Vipotnik, assisted by A. Matko, before an own goal from E. Janza pulled Switzerland level at 1-1 on ten minutes. D. Ndoye put the Nati ahead on 38 minutes and 2-1 stood at half-time and stayed that way to the final whistle. Slovenia collected five yellow cards to Switzerland's one, with Žan Vipotnik, David Zec and Vanja Drkušić all booked before the break, Jaka Bijol and Erik Janža joining them later on. Switzerland held 67% of possession and had 13 shots to ten, with an xG of 1.05 against 0.42, yet Slovenia's goalkeeper made six saves to keep the gap at a single goal. Our Switzerland -1.5 handicap at 2.05 went down. Before kick-off the market had Switzerland winning at 1.33, the draw at 4.65 and Slovenia at 9.00; over 2.5 goals, offered at 1.83, landed, and so did both teams to score at 2.29.
- 2'Z. Vipotnik (A. Matko)0:1
- 10'E. Janza own goal1:1
- 23'Žan Vipotnik YC
- 28'David Zec YC
- 29'Vanja Drkušić YC
- 38'D. Ndoye2:1
- 40'Michel Aebischer YC
- 46'on D. Brekalo, off V. Drkusic
- 58'Jaka Bijol YC
- 64'on A. Gnezda Cerin, off S. Lovric
- 64'on T. Begic, off A. Matko
- 67'on S. Britschgi, off R. Rodriguez
- 67'on D. Sow, off M. Aebischer
- 77'on W. Boteli, off Z. Amdouni
- 78'on Z. Celar, off Z. Vipotnik
- 79'Erik Janža YC
- 87'on A. Bajrami, off Z. Athekame
- 87'on F. Rieder, off D. Ndoye
- 89'on T. Horvat, off D. Sturm
| Switzerland | stat | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.05 | expected goals (xG) | 0.42 |
| 13 | shots | 10 |
| 6 | on target | 3 |
| 67% | possession | 33% |
| 4 | corners | 3 |
| 8 | fouls | 15 |
| 2 | saves | 6 |
| 89% | pass accuracy | 75% |
| 1 | yellow cards | 5 |
| -1.13 | goals prevented | -1.13 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Switzerland- 1G. Kobel6.5
- 13R. Rodriguez6.9
- 5M. Akanji7.3
- 4N. Elvedi7.5
- 16Z. Athekame6.5
- 14A. Jashari6.9
- 8R. Freuler7.0
- 11D. Ndoye — highest feed rating in the match7.6
- 9J. Manzambi7.2
- 20M. Aebischer6.5
- 10Z. Amdouni6.9
- 12Y. Mvogo
- 21M. Keller
- 18E. Comert
- 3A. Bajramion 87'
- 17I. Schmidt
- 2S. Britschgion 67'6.6
- 15D. Sowon 67'6.9
- 23A. Sanches
- 6V. Sierro
- 7J. Monteiro
- 22F. Riederon 87'
- 19W. Botelion 77'6.3
Slovenia- 1J. Oblak6.9
- 2Z. Karnicnik6.0
- 21V. Drkusic6.2
- 6J. Bijol7.0
- 17D. Zec6.5
- 13E. Janza5.9
- 20A. Matko6.6
- 4M. Zabukovnik6.9
- 8S. Lovric6.7
- 15D. Sturm6.3
- 18Z. Vipotnik7.5
- 16I. Vekic
- 12M. Vidovsek
- 3J. Balkovec
- 23D. Brekaloon 46'7.5
- 7J. Urbancic
- 5S. Kuzmic
- 10T. Elsnik
- 14T. Svetlin
- 19T. Horvaton 89'
- 22A. Gnezda Cerinon 64'6.3
- 9T. Begicon 64'6.3
- 11Z. Celaron 78'6.2
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Switzerland −1.5 — the bet lost. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: a Switzerland win. 2 more bet on at least one side failing to score — the bet lost. One more bet on under 2.5 goals.
- 11 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.05ChatGPTDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost - 2 of 161same directionodds 1.33
SonarNemotron Superwon - 2 of 16BTTS noodds 1.58Claude
GLMlost - 1 of 16U 2.5odds 1.90Qwenlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 01.10 at 07:41 UTC
Switzerland have won both of their opening group games and top the table on six points, and last September they took Slovenia apart 3-0 at home. A price of 1.33 on the hosts, worth around 70% once you look at the market, says nobody doubts the favourite here — the only argument is about the margin. Slovenia sit second on four points, but their football is built from the back, and they create little going forward, especially away.
Where we could be wrong
That very approach has already paid off for them, though: last October the Nati could not break Slovenia down on the road and came away with a 0-0. If the visitors sit deep again and shut off the approaches to their box, one goal will not be enough for the hosts, because the handicap only lands with a win by two or more goals. Our pick is Switzerland -1.5 on the handicap at odds of 2.05.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Switzerland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | Scotland | A | 3:0 | W |
| 26.09 | North Macedonia | A | 3:0 | W |
| 12.07 | ArgentinaWorld Cup | A | 1:3xG 0.5–1.9 | L |
| 07.07 | ColombiaWorld Cup | H | 0:0pensxG 0.4–1.1 | W |
| 03.07 | AlgeriaWorld Cup | H | 2:0xG 2.6–0.7 | W |
| 24.06 | CanadaWorld Cup | H | 2:1xG 1.1–1.7 | W |
| 18.06 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup | H | 4:1xG 2.1–0.2 | W |
Slovenia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.09 | North Macedonia | H | 2:0 | W |
| 26.09 | Scotland | H | 0:0 | D |
| 07.06 | Croatiafriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 04.06 | Cyprusfriendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 31.03 | Montenegrofriendly | A | 3:2 | W |
| 28.03 | Hungaryfriendly | A | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1xG 2.2–1.0 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–1–0Switzerland wins · draws · Slovenia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia vs Switzerland | 0:0 | 13.10.25 | World Cup qualifying |
| Switzerland vs Slovenia | 3:0 | 08.09.25 | World Cup qualifying |
- both scored in 0 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6–0 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Slovenia | 2 | 1-1-0 | 2–0 | 4 | DW |
| 3 | Scotland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0–3 | 1 | DL |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0–5 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
