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Turkey vs Italy: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 28 September, Turkey host Italy in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.07: 8 of 15 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Michael Oliver
- Nations League, matchday 2 of 6
published UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
2.07AI models' pick · 8 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 8 won · 7 lost · 1 void · −0.04 units All results
the same bet at other prices
what these numbers mean
- safer and riskier
- Safer is the same event, only wider: it also comes in when the main bet does not, so the price is lower. Riskier is the same event, only narrower. We do not consider either option better value than the other: it is one and the same estimate phrased differently, and the price only reflects how widely it is phrased.
AI models
- 8U 2.5 — matches our betodds 2.07Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, GLM, Mistral
- 4BTTSodds 1.59MiniMax, Xiaomi MiMo, Nemotron Super, Nemotron Ultra
- 1X2odds 1.45Sonar
- 11Xodds 1.50Kimi
- 1U 3 — matches our betodds 1.62ChatGPT
Match odds
Over the day a Turkey win shortened from 2.66 to 2.59 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 2.07 → 2.07 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 1.76 → 1.76, Under 2.5 2.07 → 2.07.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| We published under 2.5 goals at 2.07 | ||
| 1.76opened | 2.07opened | |
All snapshots (6)
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.76 | 2.07 | |
| 1.76 | 2.07 | |
| 1.76 | 2.07 | |
| 1.76 | 2.07 | |
| 1.76 | 2.07 | |
| 1.76 | 2.07 |
AI prediction and analysis
8 of 15 AI models went for under 2.5 goals. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: under 3 goals. 4 more went for both teams to score. The other 2 chose a bet each: double chance. 2 are betting on the match result and 13 on goals.
- 8 of 15U 2.5our betodds 2.07ClaudeDeepSeekGeminiGrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistral - 4 of 15BTTSodds 1.59MiniMaxXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra
- 1 of 15X2odds 1.45Sonar
- 1 of 151Xodds 1.50Kimi
- 1 of 15U 3same directionodds 1.62ChatGPT
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 27.09 at 09:54 UTC
The last time these two met it finished 0-0, a friendly in June last year. Both arrive with nothing on the board after the opening round, and the market cannot separate them: 2.63 on a Turkey win against 2.54 on an Italy win, with next to nothing between the pair once the margin is stripped out. An evening priced that evenly usually means a mistake at the back costs more than a risk taken going forward, and a game like that suits the goal markets — the bookmakers rate under 2.5 goals at 46%, almost half. That is our pick.
The empty points column cuts the other way too. A second straight defeat would leave either side in real trouble in the group, so neither Turkey nor the Azzurri can afford to play it safe until the final whistle, and the home crowd will be pushing the hosts forward. The previous meetings before that goalless June night also ran along very different lines — 2-3 in March 2022 and 0-3 at the Euros.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Our pick: under 2.5 goals.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Turkey| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09 | France | H | 0:1 | L |
| 26.06 | USAWorld Cup | H | 3:2xG 3.0–2.1 | W |
| 20.06 | ParaguayWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 2.2–0.3 | L |
| 14.06 | AustraliaWorld Cup | A | 0:2xG 1.4–1.2 | L |
| 06.06 | Venezuelafriendly | A | 2:1 | W |
| 01.06 | North Macedoniafriendly | H | 4:0 | W |
Italy| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09 | Belgium | H | 0:2 | L |
| 07.06 | Greecefriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 03.06 | Luxembourgfriendly | A | 1:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1 | L |
| 26.03 | Northern IrelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:0 | W |
| 16.11 | NorwayWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:4xG 0.9–1.4 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–1–2Turkey wins · draws · Italy wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy vs Turkey | 0:0 | 04.06.24 | friendly |
| Turkey vs Italy | 2:3 | 29.03.22 | friendly |
| Turkey vs Italy | 0:3 | 11.06.21 | Euro |
- both scored in 1 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | France | 1 | 1-0-0 | 1–0 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Turkey | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–1 | 0 | L |
| 4 | Italy | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0–2 | 0 | L |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
