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Ukraine vs Hungary 1:2: Nations League result and odds
Ukraine vs Hungary finished 1:2 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.72, and it lost.
- Nations League, matchday 4 of 6
- Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.72AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Only one snapshot of the line was kept — no movement was recorded for this match.
How the match went
Hungary broke a goalless first half in the 52nd minute, Milan Tóth converting from Milan Vitális, and that lead held until deep into the second half. Ukraine threw on three substitutes just past the hour and found an equaliser in the 83rd through Roman Yaremchuk, rated the match's top performer at 7.8, finishing off Oleksandr Pikhalyonok's pass. The 1-1 lasted two minutes before Mark Csinger put Hungary back in front in the 85th, assisted by Rajmund Tóth, and it finished 2-1 to Hungary. Ukraine had the better share of possession, 52% to 48%, and led on shots 17 to 10, yet only had two on target against Hungary's four. Our bet on fewer than 2.5 goals, taken at 1.72, went down once Csinger made it three. Before kick-off Ukraine were favoured to win at 2.40, the draw stood at 3.23 and Hungary at 2.87.
- 20'Egor Nazaryna YC
- 52'Milan Tóth (Milan Vitális)0:1
- 55'Dániel Lukács YC
- 60'on Maksym Khlan, off Vladyslav Veleten
- 60'on Roman Yaremchuk, off Matviy Ponomarenko
- 60'on Vladyslav Vanat, off Igor Krasnopir
- 61'on Gabor Jurek, off Alex Tóth
- 61'on Tamás Szűcs, off Dániel Lukács
- 70'on Oleksandr Pikhalyonok, off Oleg Ocheretko
- 72'on Rajmund Tóth, off András Schäfer
- 72'on Jozsef Szalai, off Milan Tóth
- 78'Rajmund Tóth YC
- 83'Roman Yaremchuk (Oleksandr Pikhalyonok)1:1
- 85'Mark Csinger (Rajmund Tóth)1:2
- 86'on Ivan Varfolomeev, off Egor Nazaryna
- 87'on Áron Csongvai, off Dominik Szoboszlai
| Ukraine | stat | Hungary |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | shots | 10 |
| 2 | on target | 4 |
| 52% | possession | 48% |
| 5 | corners | 4 |
| 10 | fouls | 13 |
| 2 | saves | 1 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Ukraine- 12A. Trubin6.5
- 4T. Mykhavko6.9
- 3E. Sarapiy6.8
- 13I. Zabarnyi6.7
- 2I. Krupskyi6.3
- 19Y. Nazaryna6.5
- 18O. Ocheretko6.3
- 21V. Veleten6.1
- 10M. Ponomarenko6.2
- 15V. Tsygankov5.8
- 22I. Krasnopir6.6
- 23D. Riznyk
- 1G. Yermakov
- 5V. Bondar
- 14O. Drambayev
- 17O. Pikhalyonokon 70'6.4
- 6V. Brazhko
- 16I. Varfolomeevon 86'6.0
- 7A. Yarmolenko
- 9R. Yaremchuk — highest feed rating in the matchon 60'7.8
- 8O. Nazarenko
- 11V. Vanaton 60'5.9
- 20M. Khlanon 60'6.2
Hungary- 1B. Toth6.3
- 18Z. Nagy6.2
- 3M. Csinger7.8
- 6W. Orban6.8
- 2A. Osvath6.4
- 10D. Szoboszlai6.6
- 13A. Schafer6.9
- 21A. Toth6.6
- 8M. Vitalis7.7
- 16D. Lukacs
- 20M. Toth7.7
- 12B. Gundel-Takacs
- 22A. Pecsi
- 4B. Varkonyi
- 5A. Markgraf
- 14B. Bolla
- 19R. Tothon 72'6.5
- 23A. Doktorics
- 15A. Csongvaion 87'6.3
- 7T. Szucson 61'6.1
- 11J. Szalaion 72'6.7
- 17G. Jurekon 61'6.8
- 9D. Barany
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 2 more each on at least one side failing to score (lost) and on a Ukraine win (lost). One more bet on Ukraine not losing.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 04.10 at 11:24 UTC
September brought the first ever meeting between these two, and a single goal settled it: Ukraine won 1-0 in Hungary. The group could hardly be tighter — four points each after three rounds, Ukraine second, the Magyars third. No favourite stands out in the prices either: the three outcomes sit close together, Ukraine a shade ahead of Hungary with the draw not far behind. Under 2.5 goals is rated at 55%, and with the cost of a mistake this high, both sides will think about defending their goal first and a third goal much later.
Where we could be wrong
And if the scoring starts inside the first half-hour? Then the side trailing has to open up — on four points nobody can afford to play out the rest with no goals, and a cautious game turns into an open exchange. There is no team news yet, so we don't know who starts up front for Hungary or how fresh either team will be for the fourth round. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.72.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Ukraine| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Northern Ireland | H | 0:3 | L |
| 28.09 | Georgia | A | 0:0 | D |
| 25.09 | Hungary | A | 1:0 | W |
| 07.06 | Denmarkfriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 31.05 | Polandfriendly | A | 2:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Albaniafriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 26.03 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:3 | L |
| 16.11 | IcelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:0xG 1.6–0.6 | W |
Hungary| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.10 | Georgia | H | 1:0 | W |
| 28.09 | Northern Ireland | A | 0:0 | D |
| 25.09 | Ukraine | H | 0:1 | L |
| 09.06 | Kazakhstanfriendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 05.06 | Finlandfriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 31.03 | Greecefriendly | H | 0:0 | D |
| 28.03 | Sloveniafriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 16.11 | Republic of IrelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:3xG 1.2–2.3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–0Ukraine wins · draws · Hungary wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary vs Ukraine | 0:1 | 25.09.26 |
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4–0 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 | Ukraine | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1–3 | 4 | WDL |
| 3 | Hungary | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1–1 | 4 | LDW |
| 4 | Georgia | 3 | 0-1-2 | 0–2 | 1 | LDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
