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Ukraine vs Northern Ireland 0:3: Nations League result and odds
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland finished 0:3 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.58, and it lost.
- Nations League, matchday 3 of 6
- Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.58AI models' pick · 12 of 16 for this bet, 4 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over the day a Northern Ireland win shortened from 4.23 to 4.14 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementNorthern Ireland 4.23 → 4.14 over the day · 2 snapshotsView
This market has barely moved: Ukraine 1.86 → 1.88, Draw 3.26 → 3.24, Northern Ireland 4.23 → 4.14.
Price changes
| When | Ukraine | Draw | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.88+0.02 | 3.24−0.02 | 4.14−0.09 | |
| 1.86opened | 3.26opened | 4.23opened |
How the match went
Northern Ireland won 3-0 away despite having less of the ball. Ciaron Brown opened the scoring after nine minutes, Isaac Price added a second on 22 with Kieran Morrison's assist, and it was 0-2 at half-time. Brown's second goal came on 61, set up by Pierce Charles. Mykola Matvienko was booked on 57, and Ukraine finished with three yellow cards to Northern Ireland's one, including late cautions for Danylo Sikan and Matvii Ponomarenko. Ukraine held 73% of the ball and had eleven shots to Northern Ireland's ten, yet the expected goals read 0.38 against 1.39 — Northern Ireland converted three chances, Ukraine none. Our bet was under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.58, and it went down: three goals went in, one more than the line allowed. Northern Ireland were rated outsiders near 4.14 for an outright win, with Ukraine around 1.88 and the over/under line set at 2.28 for over 2.5 goals.
- 9'Ciaron Brown0:1
- 22'Isaac Price (Kieran Morrison)0:2
- 56'on Yehor Nazaryna, off Volodymyr Brazhko
- 57'Mykola Matvienko YC
- 61'Ciaron Brown (Pierce Charles)0:3
- 63'on Matvii Ponomarenko, off Roman Yaremchuk
- 63'on Oleksandr Zubkov, off Andriy Yarmolenko
- 63'on Danylo Sikan, off Valerii Bondar
- 64'Brodie Spencer YC
- 67'on Justin Devenny, off Isaac Price
- 68'on Oleksandr Nazarenko, off Georgiy Sudakov
- 77'on Josh Magennis, off Jamie Donley
- 77'on Patrick Kelly, off Kieran Morrison
- 84'on Ceadach O'Neill, off Terry Devlin
- 84'on Paddy McNair, off Tom Atcheson
- 88'Danylo Sikan YC
- 88'Matvii Ponomarenko YC
| Ukraine | stat | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 0.38 | expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 11 | shots | 10 |
| 2 | on target | 3 |
| 73% | possession | 27% |
| 7 | corners | 1 |
| 15 | fouls | 4 |
| 0 | saves | 2 |
| 88% | pass accuracy | 73% |
| 3 | yellow cards | 1 |
| 0.52 | goals prevented | 0.52 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Ukraine- 23Dmytro Riznyk4.5
- 22Mykola Matvienko5.9
- 3Eduard Sarapii6.9
- 13Ilya Zabarnyi7.2
- 5Valerii Bondar6.3
- 6Volodymyr Brazhko6.5
- 18Oleg Ocheretko6.7
- 8Georgiy Sudakov6.3
- 7Andriy Yarmolenko6.3
- 15Viktor Tsygankov6.2
- 9Roman Yaremchuk6.5
- 19Yehor Nazarynaon 56'6.2
- 20Oleksandr Zubkovon 63'6.5
- 11Matvii Ponomarenkoon 63'6.5
- 14Danylo Sikanon 63'6.2
- 17Oleksandr Nazarenkoon 68'6.3
- 1Georgiy Yermakov
- 12Anatoliy Trubin
- 2Illia Krupskyi
- 4Taras Mykhavko
- 10Mykola Shaparenko
- 16Ivan Varfolomeev
- 21Igor Krasnopir
Northern Ireland- 1Pierce Charles8.2
- 2Terry Devlin7.2
- 22Ciaron Brown — highest feed rating in the match9.2
- 15Ruairi McConville7.5
- 4Tom Atcheson7.3
- 20Brodie Spencer7.5
- 14Isaac Price7.7
- 19Shea Charles7.2
- 5Trai Hume6.9
- 7Kieran Morrison7.3
- 10Jamie Donley7.3
- 3Justin Devennyon 67'6.9
- 16Patrick Kellyon 77'6.7
- 21Josh Magennison 77'6.5
- 17Paddy McNairon 84'6.6
- 8Ceadach O'Neillon 84'6.9
- 12Conor Hazard
- 23Bailey Peacock-Farrell
- 13Michael Forbes
- 6Jordan Thompson
- 11Paul Smyth
- 9Dion Charles
- 18Braiden Graham
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 2 more bet on at least one side failing to score — the bet won. The other 2 chose a bet each: double chance and a Ukraine win.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 09:50 UTC
Both previous meetings between these sides finished low on goals: Ukraine won 1-0 in a friendly in June 2021 and lost 0-2 at the Euros in June 2016. They meet again in the Nations League with four points each after two rounds, sharing top spot in the group, and Northern Ireland are unlikely to open up on the road in that position. Ukraine, for their part, are used to grinding opponents down rather than taking them apart. The prices back that reading: 1.86 for the home win and 3.26 for the draw is restrained for a home fixture, and under 2.5 goals is the market's main scenario at 59%. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.58.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is obvious enough. Ukraine need the win at home, and if they commit bodies forward from the first minute, space opens up behind them. The visitors know how to punish that on the counter, and one quick goal would be enough to turn a cautious game into something else entirely.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Ukraine| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Georgia | A | 0:0 | D |
| 25.09 | Hungary | A | 1:0 | W |
| 07.06 | Denmarkfriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 31.05 | Polandfriendly | A | 2:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Albaniafriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 26.03 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:3 | L |
| 16.11 | IcelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:0xG 1.6–0.6 | W |
Northern Ireland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.09 | Hungary | H | 0:0 | D |
| 25.09 | Georgia | A | 1:0 | W |
| 08.06 | Francefriendly | A | 1:3 | L |
| 04.06 | Guineafriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Walesfriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 26.03 | ItalyWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:2 | L |
| 17.11 | LuxembourgWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:0xG 1.3–0.6 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
1–0–1Ukraine wins · draws · Northern Ireland wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine vs Northern Ireland | 1:0 | 03.06.21 | friendly |
| Ukraine vs Northern Ireland | 0:2 | 16.06.16 | Euro |
- both scored in 0 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 0 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 1-1-0 | 1–0 | 4 | WD |
| 2 | Ukraine | 2 | 1-1-0 | 1–0 | 4 | WD |
| 3 | Hungary | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0–1 | 1 | LD |
| 4 | Georgia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0–1 | 1 | LD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
