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Wales vs Denmark 0:1: Nations League result and odds
Wales vs Denmark finished 0:1 in the Nations League. The AI models' pick was Denmark to win at 1.81, and it won.
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Denmark to win
1.81AI models' pick · 16 of 16 for this bet
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
What the odds were
Over 4 days a Denmark win drifted from 1.81 to 1.95 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Denmark: 1.81 → 1.95 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Denmark win) has drifted from 1.81 to 1.95: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Wales | Draw | Denmark · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.76−0.06 | 3.52−0.17 | 1.95+0.14 | |
| We published a Denmark win at 1.81 | |||
| 3.82opened | 3.69opened | 1.81opened | |
How the match went
Denmark broke a goalless deadlock through a Rasmus Hojlund penalty on 75 minutes and won 1-0 at Wales, with half-time still goalless. Liam Cullen picked up a yellow card on 29 minutes, Ben Cabango followed on 66, and Sorba Thomas was booked late as Wales pushed for an equaliser that never came. Denmark had much the better of the chances, with 2.20 expected goals to Wales's 0.37 despite Wales holding 56% of possession. Our bet on Denmark to win landed at 1.81. That price had opened at 1.81 and drifted out to 1.95 by kick-off. Wales shortened to 3.76 and the draw came in to 3.52. Under 2.5 goals paid 2.21, and with only one side scoring, both teams to score "no" settled at 1.99.
- 10'on A. Skov Olsen, off P. Hojbjerg
- 29'Liam Cullen YC
- 56'on J. Sheehan, off J. James
- 56'on M. Harris, off L. Koumas
- 66'Ben Cabango YC
- 75'R. Hojlund penalty0:1
- 76'on W. Burns, off B. Johnson
- 76'on J. Colwill, off L. Cullen
- 76'on A. Gaaei, off R. Kristensen
- 80'Sorba Thomas YC
- 82'on M. Kvistgaarden, off G. Isaksen
- 82'on K. Hogh, off R. Hojlund
- 83'on K. Moore, off B. Davies
- 90+4'Mads Hermansen YC
| Wales | stat | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| 0.37 | expected goals (xG) | 2.20 |
| 6 | shots | 13 |
| 1 | on target | 4 |
| 56% | possession | 44% |
| 3 | corners | 3 |
| 11 | fouls | 9 |
| 3 | saves | 1 |
| 85% | pass accuracy | 85% |
| 3 | yellow cards | 1 |
| 0.01 | goals prevented | 0.01 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- goals prevented
- The goalkeeper's work beyond expectation: how many goals they kept out compared with what the shots on target should have produced. A negative number means they conceded more than expected.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Wales- 12D. Ward7.0
- 15J. Dasilva6.6
- 4B. Davies6.7
- 6B. Cabango6.6
- 3N. Williams7.5
- 17J. James6.9
- 5E. Ampadu7.7
- 19S. Thomas6.7
- 10L. Cullen6.2
- 11B. Johnson7.2
- 9L. Koumas6.3
- 1D. Cornell
- 21T. King
- 16J. Lienou
- 14C. Roberts
- 2C. Mepham
- 20D. James
- 7C. Ashford
- 8W. Burnson 76'6.3
- 22J. Sheehanon 56'6.3
- 23J. Colwillon 76'6.7
- 18M. Harrison 56'6.2
- 13K. Mooreon 83'6.3
Denmark- 16M. Hermansen6.9
- 5J. Maehle7.3
- 3O. Provstgaard7.9
- 2J. Andersen7.3
- 13R. Kristensen6.6
- 20M. Daramy6.9
- 23P. Hojbjerg6.7
- 21M. Hjulmand6.9
- 8G. Isaksen — highest feed rating in the match8.3
- 7V. Froholdt6.3
- 9R. Hojlund7.5
- 22F. Jorgensen
- 1A. Jungdal
- 6V. Nelsson
- 18A. Gaaeion 76'6.9
- 4L. Hogsberg
- 12M. Bidstrup
- 10T. Jorgensen
- 15M. Kvistgaardenon 82'6.9
- 11A. Skov Olsenon 10'7.3
- 19K. Hoghon 82'6.5
- 17A. Daghim
AI prediction and analysis
All 16 AI models bet on a Denmark win — the bet won.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 30.09 at 10:04 UTC
Wales have lost all four of their most recent meetings with Denmark, the latest of them a week ago, on 27 September, when the Danes won 2-0. Two rounds in, Wales sit bottom of the group without a point, while Denmark have three points and third place. The market reads it the same way: the line from thirteen bookmakers has the visitors at 1.81 against 3.82 on Wales, a 51% chance for the away win and the most likely result of the three. Our pick is Denmark to win.
Where we could be wrong
At home, though, Wales have made life harder for the Danes — in November 2018 they went down only 1-2. After the recent beating, the hosts will sit deep and play for density, and Denmark, with their patient possession game, can need a long time to prise open a low block like that. One goal may not be enough to take the three points, and that is the clear risk to the bet.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Wales| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Denmark | A | 0:2 | L |
| 24.09 | Portugal | A | 0:1 | L |
| 06.06 | Romaniafriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 02.06 | Ghanafriendly | H | 1:1xG 1.5–1.8 | D |
| 31.03 | Northern Irelandfriendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 26.03 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:1pens | L |
| 18.11 | North MacedoniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 7:1xG 4.6–0.6 | W |
Denmark| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 | Wales | H | 2:0 | W |
| 24.09 | Norway | A | 2:3 | L |
| 07.06 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 03.06 | Congo DRfriendly | A | 0:0 | D |
| 31.03 | CzechiaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1pens | L |
| 26.03 | North MacedoniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 4:0 | W |
| 18.11 | ScotlandWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:4xG 2.5–1.7 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–0–4Wales wins · draws · Denmark wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark vs Wales | 2:0 | 27.09.26 | |
| Wales vs Denmark | 0:4 | 26.06.21 | Euro |
| Wales vs Denmark | 1:2 | 16.11.18 | |
| Denmark vs Wales | 2:0 | 09.09.18 |
- both scored in 1 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 4
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3–1 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Norway | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–4 | 3 | WL |
| 3 | Denmark | 2 | 1-0-1 | 4–3 | 3 | LW |
| 4 | Wales | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0–3 | 0 | LL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
