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data updated 14.10 03:20

FINISHED

Arsenal vs Leeds United 2:1: result and odds

Arsenal vs Leeds United finished 2:1. The AI models' pick was Arsenal −1.5 handicap at 2.16, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Arsenal
Leeds United

AI models' pick: Arsenal −1.5 handicap

2.16

AI models' pick · 13 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction

Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results

lost−1.00 units
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:113%

2:1 9% — this score came in1:0 8%2:0 8%

The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 10.10 11:07

result11.42+0.10X4.56−0.5327.92−1.24
total 2.5O1.81+0.08U2.04−0.08
both to scoreyes1.97−0.13no1.77+0.10
double chance1X1.09+0.03121.19+0.03X22.85−0.47
handicapH1 −1.52.23 — matches our bet+0.24H2 +1.51.66−0.19

Over 20 days a Leeds United win shortened from 9.16 to 7.92 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Arsenal −1.5: 2.16 → 2.23 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (Arsenal −1.5 handicap) has drifted from 2.16 to 2.23: the market now rates it as less likely.

Arsenal −1.51.99 → 2.23our betLeeds United +1.51.85 → 1.66
1.802.002.2010 daysno data3 daysno data20 Sep22 Sep23 Sep24 Sep25 Sep26 Sep27 Sep7 Oct10 OctWe published · 2.16Arsenal −1.5 2.23Leeds United +1.5 1.66

Price changes

Price changes in the Handicap −1.5 market
WhenArsenal −1.5 · our betLeeds United +1.5
2.23+0.071.66−0.05
7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days
We published Arsenal −1.5 handicap at 2.16
2.16+0.171.71−0.14
27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days
1.99opened1.85opened
103 snapshots · the prices changed 2 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 10.10 14:00

James Justin put Leeds United ahead on 55 minutes, finishing off Gabriel Gudmundsson's assist after a goalless first half that saw three Leeds players booked inside three minutes, Daniel Farke among them. Arsenal's response came through Riccardo Calafiori, who turned in Ben White's pass on 62 minutes. Bruno Guimarães then added the winner from Declan Rice's pass on 70 minutes to make it 2-1, having been rated the match's top performer at 8.1. Arsenal's 2.66 expected goals dwarfed Leeds' 0.74. The hosts also had 58% of possession and 13 shots to Leeds' 11. Our bet on Arsenal's -1.5 handicap, odds 2.16, went down. Arsenal had gone off at 1.42 to win before kick-off, out from 1.32 when the line opened. The draw stood at 4.56 and Leeds at 7.92. Three goals landed the over 2.5 price of 1.78, and both teams scored as the 2.07 price implied.

  1. 36'Leeds UnitedAo Tanaka YC
  2. 38'Leeds UnitedEthan Ampadu YC
  3. 39'Leeds UnitedDaniel Farke YC
  4. 55'Leeds UnitedJames Justin (Gabriel Gudmundsson)0:1
  5. 59'Leeds UnitedTarik Muharemovic YC
  6. 62'ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori (Ben White)1:1
  7. 63'Arsenalon Jurriën Timber, off Ben White
  8. 63'Arsenalon Viktor Gyökeres, off Kai Havertz
  9. 63'Arsenalon Bruno Guimarães, off Myles Lewis-Skelly
  10. 70'ArsenalBruno Guimarães (Declan Rice)2:1
  11. 71'Leeds Unitedon Harry Wilson, off Ao Tanaka
  12. 71'Leeds Unitedon Brenden Aaronson, off Noah Okafor
  13. 78'Leeds UnitedJames Justin YC
  14. 79'Leeds Unitedon Lukas Nmecha, off James Justin
  15. 82'Arsenalon Piero Hincapié, off Riccardo Calafiori
  16. 84'ArsenalMartin Odegaard YC
  17. 86'Leeds Unitedon Jean Matteo Bahoya, off Jayden Bogle
  18. 86'Leeds Unitedon Jaka Bijol, off Nico Elvedi
  19. 90'Arsenalon Mikel Merino, off Martin Odegaard
Match stats: Arsenal vs Leeds United
ArsenalstatLeeds United
2.66expected goals (xG)0.74
13shots11
6on target5
58%possession42%
3corners4
12fouls20
4saves4
1yellow cards4
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Arsenal

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager Mikel Arteta

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1David Raya7.3
  • 33R. Calafiori7.5
  • 6Gabriel Magalhães6.3
  • 15E. Konsa6.9
  • 4B. White7.0
  • 49M. Lewis-Skelly6.7
  • 41D. Rice7.6
  • 20N. Madueke7.2
  • 8M. Ødegaard6.5
  • 7B. Saka6.4
  • 29K. Havertz6.3
substitutes
  • 14V. Gyökereson 63'7.0
  • 56M. Dowman
  • 39Bruno Guimarães — highest feed rating in the matchon 63'8.1
  • 36Martín Zubimendi
  • 23Mikel Merinoon 90'0.0
  • 10E. Eze
  • 12J. Timberon 63'6.6
  • 5P. Hincapiéon 82'6.5
  • 13Kepa
Leeds United

formation 3-4-2-1 · manager D. Farke

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1J. Trafford5.7
  • 5T. Muharemović6.5
  • 30N. Elvedi6.7
  • 24J. Justin6.9
  • 3G. Gudmundsson7.5
  • 22A. Tanaka6.1
  • 4E. Ampadu6.6
  • 2J. Bogle5.9
  • 19N. Okafor6.0
  • 18A. Stach6.3
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.1
substitutes
  • 14L. Nmechaon 79'6.3
  • 23J. Bahoyaon 86'6.3
  • 16M. Zetterer
  • 26M. Bard
  • 15J. Bijolon 86'6.4
  • 8S. Longstaff
  • 44I. Gruev
  • 10H. Wilsonon 71'6.2
  • 11B. Aaronsonon 71'6.0

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on Arsenal −1.5 — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: an Arsenal win. The other 2 chose a bet each: a Leeds United handicap and a total-goals bet.

  • 13 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.16ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashGLMMiniMaxMistralSonarDots3-NoteNemotron Ultralost
  • 1 of 161same directionodds 1.37Nemotron Superwon
  • 1 of 16H2 (+1.5)odds 1.71Claudewon
  • 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.78Xiaomi MiMowon

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC

Arsenal sit second with 12 points after five rounds, and at home they average 2.5 goals scored against 0.5 conceded. Both of their home games have gone over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head record is harsher still: eight Arsenal wins and one draw in the last nine meetings. Leeds United lost 0-4 at home in January, and in August Arsenal won 5-0 at the Emirates.

Leeds United's away attack is producing roughly a goal a game, and with a gap that wide our pick is the Arsenal -1.5 handicap. The one real doubt is whether the hosts still want more once they have their second goal.

Where we could be wrong

On the road Leeds United prefer to keep things tight: they have yet to score three in an away match, they have one clean sheet, and nine points has them fifth after five rounds. The price on an Arsenal win has drifted from 1.32 to 1.37 over 17 days, and a one-goal win would leave the bet with no chance.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Arsenal
Recent matches: Arsenal
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19.09Brighton & Hove AlbionA0:3L
15.09Ipswich TownEFL CupA4:2W
12.09SunderlandA2:0W
09.09NapoliChampions LeagueA1:0W
06.09ChelseaH2:1W
Leeds United
Recent matches: Leeds United
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09Crystal PalaceH0:0D
14.09Newcastle UnitedH4:1W
09.09ChelseaEFL CupA3:6L
05.09Brighton & Hove AlbionA1:1D
30.08BrentfordH1:1D

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstArsenalLeeds UnitedEPL
goals1.6 / 0.81.4 / 0.61.4
xG1.7 / 0.81.5 / 1.31.5
shots13 / 10.612.2 / 14.613.9
shots on target4.8 / 2.83.6 / 4.24.4
corners5 / 3.24.4 / 4.84.7
fouls10.2 / 15.410.6 / 13.211.4
yellow cards1.4 / 3.61.4 / 2.81.9
matches over 2.560%20%
both scored20%60%
clean sheets60%40%
failed to score20%20%
home / away
goals2.5 / 0.51 / 0.5
average total31.5
matches over 2.5100%0%
both scored50%50%
  • Arsenal score more than the league average: 1.6 vs 1.4
  • Leeds United shoot less often than the league average: 12.2 shots vs 13.9
  • Arsenal: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
  • Leeds United unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Arsenal, away games only for Leeds United

Head to head

last 9

8–1–0Arsenal wins · draws · Leeds United wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Leeds United vs Arsenal0:431.01.26
Arsenal vs Leeds United5:023.08.25
Arsenal vs Leeds United4:101.04.23
Leeds United vs Arsenal0:116.10.22
Arsenal vs Leeds United2:108.05.22
Leeds United vs Arsenal1:418.12.21
Arsenal vs Leeds United2:026.10.21EFL Cup
Arsenal vs Leeds United4:214.02.21
Leeds United vs Arsenal0:022.11.20
  • both scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 9

Other matches this round

All Premier League results
0:2Sunderland–Brighton & Hove AlbionOur pick:2prediction won11 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 3.08X 3.432 2.315:1Chelsea–BournemouthOur pick:BTTSprediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.83X 3.922 4.112:1Ipswich Town–FulhamOur pick:U 2.5prediction lost9 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 2.74X 3.472 2.51