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Bournemouth vs Sunderland: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Bournemouth host Sunderland. The AI models' pick is both teams to score at 1.66: 14 of 16 models chose it.
- Premier League, matchday 7 of 38
- +14°, overcast, wind 16 km/h
- Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.66Now 1.69 · 1.66 when published
AI models' pick · 14 of 16 for this bet, 2 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%2:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 5 days a Bournemouth win drifted from 2.02 to 2.10 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.66 → 1.69 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has drifted from 1.66 to 1.69: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69+0.02 | 2.07−0.02 | |
| 1.67+0.01 | 2.09−0.02 | |
| 1.66 | 2.11−0.02 | |
| 1.66 | 2.13+0.01 | |
| We published both teams score at 1.66 | ||
| 1.66−0.01 | 2.12 | |
| 1.67+0.01 | 2.12 | |
| 1.66opened | 2.12opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for both teams to score. The other 2 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and a Bournemouth win.
- 14 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.66ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistral
SonarXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultra - 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.81
Dots3-Note - 1 of 161odds 2.09Nemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 09:20 UTC
All three of Sunderland's away trips this season have produced goals at both ends, and the numbers explain why: on the road they score 1.7 per game and ship 2.7. Bournemouth have yet to keep a clean sheet at home, and the last two meetings between these sides went the same way — 1-1 in February and a 3-2 Sunderland win in November 2025, with both teams on the scoresheet each time. Both defences are also short-handed: the hosts are without Milosavljevic and Araujo, the visitors without Ballard and Meunier. The market rates that scenario at 56%, and over the past three days the prices have drifted slightly away from Bournemouth towards the draw and the away side.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt is Bournemouth's attack. They manage just one goal a game at home and have failed to score at all in a third of their home matches. Adli and Kluivert are both question marks, and without them there is less to work with going forward, while Sunderland have already kept one clean sheet this season. Even so, we're backing both teams to score at 1.66.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Bournemouth
J. AraujoDF · 2 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
E. J. KroupiFW · 13 goals in 2025/26foot injuryout
V. MilosavljevicDF · 7 matches in 2025/26injuryout- A. ScottMF · 40 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
A. AdliFW · 33 matches in 2025/26calf injurydoubtful- J. KluivertFW · 22 matches in 2025/26muscle injurydoubtful
Sunderland- D. BallardDF · 31 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- H. DiarraMF · 22 matches in 2025/26hamstring injuryout
- T. MeunierDF · 35 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- R. MundleFW · 16 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
- B. BrobbeyFW · 7 goals in 2025/26muscle injurydoubtful
- W. IsidorFW · 6 goals in 2025/26inactivedoubtful
managers: M. Rose · R. Le Bris · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
Bournemouth| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Sturm GrazEuropa League | H | 3:0xG 2.6–0.4 | W |
| 10.10 | Chelsea | A | 1:5xG 1.4–1.1 | L |
| 20.09 | Liverpool | H | 0:1xG 0.8–1.6 | L |
| 17.09 | Real SociedadEuropa League | A | 2:1 | W |
| 12.09 | Brentford | H | 2:2xG 1.8–0.5 | D |
| 08.09 | Lincoln CityEFL Cup | H | 4:0 | W |
Sunderland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | TorreenseEuropa League | A | 2:1xG 1.8–0.1 | W |
| 10.10 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | 0:2xG 0.7–1.4 | L |
| 20.09 | Manchester City | A | 3:5xG 3.6–2.8 | L |
| 16.09 | AZ AlkmaarEuropa League | H | 1:0xG 2.9–1.5 | W |
| 12.09 | Arsenal | H | 0:2 | L |
| 08.09 | Hull CityEFL Cup | H | 1:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1 / 2 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.5 |
| shots | 12.8 / 10.7 | 13 / 12.2 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 5 / 4.3 | 4.7 / 3.3 | 4.5 |
| corners | 4.7 / 4 | 4.5 / 4 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 12.5 / 12.8 | 12.2 / 13.8 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 3 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.3 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| both scored | 83% | 50% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 2.7 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 4.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| both scored | 67% | 100% | |
- Bournemouth score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.5
- Sunderland score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- Bournemouth without a win in the last 5 league games
- Sunderland: 3 league defeats in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Bournemouth, away games only for Sunderland
Head to head
2–2–2Bournemouth wins · draws · Sunderland wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth vs Sunderland | 1:1 | 28.02.26 | |
| Sunderland vs Bournemouth | 3:2 | 29.11.25 | |
| Sunderland vs Bournemouth | 0:1 | 29.04.17 | |
| Bournemouth vs Sunderland | 1:2 | 05.11.16 | |
| Sunderland vs Bournemouth | 1:1 | 23.01.16 | |
| Bournemouth vs Sunderland | 2:0 | 19.09.15 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 6
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1-2-3 | 6–11 | 5 | LDLWD |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1-1-4 | 6–12 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0-3-3 | 7–13 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0-3-3 | 3–9 | 3 | LDDLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1512
- 16-3010
- 31-4523
- 46-6023
- 61-7502
- 76-9004
- 0-1511
- 16-3002
- 31-4521
- 46-6014
- 61-7510
- 76-9014
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
