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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Brighton & Hove Albion host Crystal Palace. The AI models' pick is Brighton & Hove Albion −1 handicap at 1.93: 11 of 16 models chose it, 3 more went in the same direction.
- Premier League, matchday 7 of 38
- +11°, drizzle
- American Express Stadium, Brighton
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Brighton & Hove Albion −1 handicap
1.93Now 1.82 · 1.93 when published
Asian handicap: the bet wins if Brighton & Hove Albion win by two goals or more; a one-goal win returns the stake.
AI models' pick · 11 of 16 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 7%2:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 5 days a Crystal Palace win drifted from 5.20 to 5.73 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Brighton & Hove Albion −1: 1.93 → 1.82 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Brighton & Hove Albion −1 handicap) has shortened from 1.93 to 1.82: the market now rates it as more likely. Brighton & Hove Albion −1 overtook Crystal Palace +1 on 15 Oct: 1.93 → 1.82, against 1.90 → 1.99.
Price changes
| When | Brighton & Hove Albion −1 · our bet | Crystal Palace +1 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.82−0.01 | 1.99+0.01 | |
| 1.83−0.02 | 1.98+0.01 | |
| 1.85−0.02 | 1.97+0.02 | |
| 1.87−0.02 | 1.95+0.01 | |
| We published Brighton & Hove Albion −1 handicap at 1.93 | ||
| 1.89−0.01 | 1.94+0.02 | |
| 1.90−0.02 | 1.92+0.01 | |
| 1.92 | 1.91+0.01 | |
| 1.92−0.01 | 1.90 | |
| 1.93opened | 1.90opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for Brighton & Hove Albion −1. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: a Brighton & Hove Albion win and Brighton & Hove Albion −1.5. 2 more went for at least one side failing to score.
- 9 of 16H1 (−1)our betodds 1.93ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GrokQwenDeepSeek FlashXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 3 of 161same directionodds 1.55
Gemini
SonarNemotron Super - 2 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 2.48KimiMistral
- 2 of 16BTTS noodds 2.18
GLMMiniMax
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 09:20 UTC
Brighton & Hove Albion have been brutal on their own patch: 2.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game at home, with a clean sheet in each of their three matches there. Crystal Palace, by contrast, manage one goal per game on the road and failed to score in two of their three away trips. Six games in, the hosts sit third on 13 points, the visitors twelfth on 7. And the away side travel without Mateta, who scored 16 goals last season, without goalkeeper Henderson and without the suspended Disasi, so there is patching to do at both ends of the pitch.
The price on the home win edged from 1.57 to 1.55 over three days, while the handicap at 1.93 amounts to roughly an even chance — and a win by exactly one goal returns the stake. That is where we are going: our pick is the Brighton & Hove Albion -1 handicap at 1.93.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is the nature of the fixture. These derbies have been attritional: in the last ten meetings Brighton have two wins and five draws, and in February they lost 0-1 at home. The hosts have attacking absences of their own, with Ferguson, Mitoma and Minteh all unavailable. No run of form guarantees a win by a wide margin in a game like this.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Brighton & Hove Albion- F. AzeezMF · 11 goals in 2025/26abdominal strainout
E. FergusonFW · 5 goals in 2025/26ankle injuryout
Y. MintehMF · 36 matches in 2025/26injuryout
K. MitomaMF · 27 matches in 2025/26hamstring injuryout
S. TzimasFW · 12 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout- M. WiefferDF · 28 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
- Z. YohannaMFlacking match fitnessdoubtful
Crystal Palace- B. ChilwellMF · 34 matches in 2025/26inactiveout
- A. DisasiDF · 17 matches in 2025/26red cardout
- D. HendersonGK · 51 matches in 2025/26foot injuryout
J. MatetaFW · 16 goals in 2025/26hamstring injuryout
C. RiadDF · 12 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout- T. TomiyasuDF · 9 matches in 2025/26calf injuryout
managers: Fabian Hurzeler · P. Sage · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Brighton & Hove Albion| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | Kauno ŽalgirisConference League | H | 4:0xG 4.0–0.0 | W |
| 10.10 | Sunderland | A | 2:0xG 1.4–0.7 | W |
| 19.09 | Arsenal | H | 3:0xG 1.3–1.6 | W |
| 16.09 | Manchester UnitedEFL Cup | A | 3:2 | W |
| 13.09 | Coventry City | A | 5:0xG 2.8–1.3 | W |
| 05.09 | Leeds United | H | 1:1xG 2.2–2.5 | D |
Crystal Palace| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10 | LyonEuropa League | A | 2:3xG 1.6–1.8 | L |
| 11.10 | Nottingham Forest | H | 3:1xG 2.4–3.3 | W |
| 03.10 | Bristol Cityclub friendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 20.09 | Leeds United | A | 0:0xG 1.1–1.3 | D |
| 17.09 | Lech PoznańEuropa League | H | 4:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Ipswich Town | H | 2:3xG 0.6–1.7 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 3 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 2 | 1.5 |
| xG | 2.1 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 2.1 | 1.5 |
| shots | 18 / 11.7 | 11 / 18 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 5.5 / 3.7 | 4.2 / 5.7 | 4.5 |
| corners | 5.3 / 5 | 2.8 / 5.3 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 12.8 / 10.2 | 9.8 / 9.7 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 2.2 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| both scored | 33% | 67% | |
| clean sheets | 67% | 17% | |
| failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2.7 / 0.3 | 1 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 3 | 2.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| both scored | 33% | 33% | |
- Brighton & Hove Albion score more than the league average: 3 vs 1.5
- Crystal Palace shoot less often than the league average: 11 shots vs 13.8
- Brighton & Hove Albion: 3 league wins in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Brighton & Hove Albion, away games only for Crystal Palace
Head to head
2–5–3Brighton & Hove Albion wins · draws · Crystal Palace wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace | 0:1 | 08.02.26 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 0:0 | 09.11.25 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 2:1 | 05.04.25 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace | 1:3 | 15.12.24 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace | 4:1 | 03.02.24 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 1:1 | 21.12.23 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace | 1:0 | 15.03.23 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 1:1 | 11.02.23 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace | 1:1 | 14.01.22 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 1:1 | 27.09.21 |
- both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5-0-1 | 10–5 | 15 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4-1-1 | 18–5 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2-4-0 | 12–6 | 10 | DDDWD |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2-2-2 | 10–13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2-1-3 | 9–12 | 7 | LWLDW |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1-3-2 | 9–9 | 6 | WDLDD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1504
- 16-3020
- 31-4551
- 46-6030
- 61-7522
- 76-9040
- 0-1512
- 16-3002
- 31-4533
- 46-6024
- 61-7510
- 76-9012
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
