FINISHED
Chelsea vs Bournemouth 5:1: result and odds
Chelsea vs Bournemouth finished 5:1. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.50, and it won.
- Referee: Sam Barrott · 3.6 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 6 of 38
- +15°, overcast, wind 19 km/h
- Stamford Bridge, London
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.50AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 7%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 20 days a Bournemouth win drifted from 3.93 to 4.11 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.50 → 1.52 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has drifted from 1.50 to 1.52: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52+0.02 | 2.41−0.16 | |
| 7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.50 | ||
| 1.50+0.08 | 2.57−0.10 | |
| 27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days | ||
| 1.42opened | 2.67opened | |
How the match went
Chelsea led 2-0 at half-time after Jordan Henderson opened the scoring and Morgan Rogers doubled it, both inside the first three minutes. João Pedro put Chelsea 3-0 up straight after the break, on 46 minutes, before Francisco Evanilson pulled one back for Bournemouth on 51 minutes. João Pedro then added his second on 67 minutes, and Henderson completed his own second with a fifth goal on 70 minutes to make it 5-1. Bournemouth actually finished with the higher expected-goals figure, 1.52 against Chelsea's 1.16. They also had more of the ball, 60% to Chelsea's 40%. Chelsea had six shots on target to Bournemouth's four, while Bournemouth were booked four times to none for Chelsea. Our both-teams-to-score bet at 1.50 landed. Before kick-off Chelsea were on offer at 1.83 to win, with the draw at 3.92 and Bournemouth at 4.11. The over 3.5 goals market was offered at 2.19 and also came through, with six goals scored.
- 2'Jordan Henderson (Cole Palmer)1:0
- 3'Morgan Rogers (Jordan Henderson)2:0
- 10'Marcus Tavernier YC
- 42'Adrien Truffert YC
- 45'on Ben Gannon-Doak, off David Brooks
- 46'João Pedro (Pedro Neto)3:0
- 51'Francisco Evanilson3:1
- 62'Tyler Adams YC
- 67'João Pedro (Pep Chavarria)4:1
- 69'Ryan Christie YC
- 70'Jordan Henderson5:1
- 72'on Romeo Lavia, off Moises Caicedo
- 72'on Marco Palestra, off João Pedro
- 72'on Juanlu Sánchez, off Adam Smith
- 72'on Álvaro Rodríguez, off Marcus Tavernier
- 73'on Lewis Cook, off Ryan Christie
- 83'on Danny Welbeck, off Pedro Neto
- 84'on Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves, off Morgan Rogers
- 84'on Julio Soler, off Adrien Truffert
- 88'on Malo Gusto, off Cole Palmer
| Chelsea | stat | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| 1.16 | expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 10 | shots | 9 |
| 6 | on target | 4 |
| 40% | possession | 60% |
| 1 | corners | 7 |
| 7 | fouls | 15 |
| 3 | saves | 1 |
| 0 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Chelsea- 1E. Martínez6.8
- 6L. Colwill6.9
- 5M. Lacroix6.7
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong6.3
- 29Pep Chavarría7.6
- 25M. Caicedo6.7
- 14J. Henderson — highest feed rating in the match9.6
- 7Pedro Neto6.8
- 17M. Rogers7.5
- 9João Pedro8.8
- 10C. Palmer7.0
- 41Estêvãoon 84'6.4
- 3W. Fofana
- 27M. Gustoon 88'6.3
- 21J. Hato
- 45R. Laviaon 72'6.5
- 2M. Palestraon 72'6.1
- 39M. Penders
- 18D. Welbeckon 83'6.5
- 23Geovany Tcherno Quenda
Bournemouth- 1Đ. Petrović5.8
- 3A. Truffert6.0
- 14António Silva5.7
- 5J. Hill5.7
- 15A. Smith5.3
- 10R. Christie6.4
- 12T. Adams6.2
- 16M. Tavernier5.6
- 37Rayan5.9
- 7D. Brooks6.1
- 9Evanilson7.8
- 24Juanlu Sánchezon 72'5.8
- 6J. Soleron 84'5.5
- 30Á. Rodríguezon 72'6.3
- 29D. Jebbison
- 11B. Doakon 45'6.4
- 18B. Diakité
- 20M. Di Gregorio
- 4L. Cookon 73'5.9
- 27A. Tóth
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 3 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. The other 2 chose a bet each: a Chelsea win and a total-goals bet.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC
Chelsea's home games back the idea of goals at both ends: both sides have scored in two matches at Stamford Bridge, where the average has climbed to 5.5 goals a game. Bournemouth have also played out two away games with goals in both directions and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. At Chelsea the attack is some way ahead of the defence — 10 scored and 12 conceded in their last five. Bournemouth are more modest with six goals, but the previous meetings have tended to be two-way affairs: in January and December 2025 the teams drew 2-2 twice. The market puts the chance of both teams scoring at 63%.
Where we could be wrong
The doubt lies elsewhere. Bournemouth have gone five rounds without a win and are short of goals, and in December 2025 they kept Chelsea out at home. What if the London side record their first clean sheet of the season against an opponent lacking a cutting edge? Even so, we're backing both teams to score at 1.50.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Chelsea| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.09 | Brentford | A | 0:3 | L |
| 12.09 | Hull City | H | 2:2 | D |
| 09.09 | Leeds UnitedEFL Cup | H | 6:3 | W |
| 06.09 | Arsenal | A | 1:2 | L |
| 30.08 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | 4:3 | W |
Bournemouth| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.09 | Liverpool | H | 0:1 | L |
| 17.09 | Real SociedadEuropa League | A | 2:1 | W |
| 12.09 | Brentford | H | 2:2 | D |
| 08.09 | Lincoln CityEFL Cup | H | 4:0 | W |
| 05.09 | Newcastle United | A | 2:2 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.5 |
| shots | 14.4 / 14.4 | 13.6 / 10.8 | 13.9 |
| shots on target | 5.2 / 6.4 | 5.2 / 4 | 4.4 |
| corners | 6.6 / 5.2 | 4.2 / 4.6 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 8.6 / 11.8 | 12 / 14 | 11.4 |
| yellow cards | 1.8 / 2.8 | 2.8 / 1.6 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| both scored | 80% | 80% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 3 / 2.5 | 1.5 / 2 | |
| average total | 5.5 | 3.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| both scored | 100% | 100% | |
- Chelsea score more than the league average: 2 vs 1.4
- Bournemouth score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.4
- Bournemouth without a win in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Chelsea, away games only for Bournemouth
Head to head
5–4–0Chelsea wins · draws · Bournemouth wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Bournemouth | 2:2 | 30.12.25 | |
| Bournemouth vs Chelsea | 0:0 | 06.12.25 | |
| Chelsea vs Bournemouth | 2:2 | 14.01.25 | |
| Bournemouth vs Chelsea | 0:1 | 14.09.24 | |
| Chelsea vs Bournemouth | 2:1 | 19.05.24 | |
| Bournemouth vs Chelsea | 0:0 | 17.09.23 | |
| Bournemouth vs Chelsea | 1:3 | 06.05.23 | |
| Chelsea vs Bournemouth | 2:0 | 27.12.22 | |
| Bournemouth vs Chelsea | 1:2 | 27.07.21 | club friendly |
- both scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 9
