24 Oct
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: AI prediction and betting pick
On 24 October, Chelsea host Tottenham Hotspur. The AI models' pick is Chelsea to win at 1.84: 11 of 16 models chose it.
- Premier League, matchday 8 of 38
- +12°, overcast, wind 21 km/h
- Stamford Bridge, London
published UTC
AI models' pick: Chelsea to win
1.84AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others
Our football predictions so far: 99 won · 74 lost · 6 void · +4.43 units All results
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 8%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
There is only one snapshot of the line so far — movement will appear with the next runs.
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for a Chelsea win. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: Chelsea −1 and Chelsea −1.5. 5 more went for over 2.5 goals.
- 6 of 161our betodds 1.84ChatGPT
GeminiQwen
GLMMistral
Sonar - 4 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.42DeepSeekDeepSeek FlashMiniMax
Dots3-Note - 1 of 16H1 (−1.5)same directionodds 3.06Kimi
- 5 of 16O 2.5odds 1.59Claude
GrokXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
The gap in the table does the talking. Chelsea have 13 points from seven games and sit fourth, while Tottenham Hotspur have three from six and prop up the division. At home the hosts are scoring 3.7 a game; the visitors have managed 0.3 goals per away trip and failed to score at all in two of their three. The previous meetings lean the same way: seven wins, a draw and two defeats in the last ten, including a 1-0 win at Tottenham in November 2025.
Where we could be wrong
The price of 1.84 on a straight home win is no gift. Chelsea concede two goals a game at home, and their early-season xG reads 0.98 against 1.66 for their opponents. Even through their goalless run Tottenham Hotspur see plenty of the ball (56.3% possession) and shoot more often than Chelsea, 15.2 attempts a game to 13.5, so if the hosts play their usual open football the away side will work a chance. Add the August friendly, when Tottenham Hotspur took a 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge, and a draw in this derby stops looking far-fetched. We're still backing Chelsea to win.
Premier League form and the head-to-head record both point to the hosts, and that is enough for us at this price.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Chelsea| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Everton | A | 2:0xG 1.6–0.5 | W |
| 10.10 | Bournemouth | H | 5:1xG 1.1–1.4 | W |
| 18.09 | Brentford | A | 0:3xG 0.8–2.6 | L |
| 12.09 | Hull City | H | 2:2 | D |
| 09.09 | Leeds UnitedEFL Cup | H | 6:3 | W |
| 06.09 | Arsenal | A | 1:2xG 0.4–2.0 | L |
Tottenham Hotspur| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10 | Manchester United | A | 1:1xG 1.6–0.8 | D |
| 19.09 | Aston Villa | H | 2:3xG 1.6–1.2 | L |
| 15.09 | LiverpoolEFL Cup | A | 1:3 | L |
| 12.09 | Everton | H | 0:0 | D |
| 05.09 | Nottingham Forest | A | 0:0xG 1.1–0.9 | D |
| 29.08 | Newcastle United | H | 0:2xG 1.1–0.7 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 2.5 / 2.2 | 0.5 / 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.5 |
| shots | 13.7 / 13.5 | 13.8 / 14.7 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 5.3 / 6 | 3.7 / 4.2 | 4.5 |
| corners | 5.7 / 5.5 | 7 / 4.5 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 8.3 / 12.3 | 13.7 / 13.7 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 1.5 / 3 | 1.3 / 2.2 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| both scored | 83% | 33% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| failed to score | 17% | 67% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 3.7 / 2 | 0.3 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 5.7 | 1.7 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| both scored | 100% | 33% | |
- Chelsea score more than the league average: 2.5 vs 1.5
- Tottenham Hotspur score less than the league average: 0.5 vs 1.5
- Tottenham Hotspur without a win in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Chelsea, away games only for Tottenham Hotspur
Head to head
7–1–2Chelsea wins · draws · Tottenham Hotspur wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur | 1:2 | 01.08.26 | club friendly |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur | 2:1 | 19.05.26 | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea | 0:1 | 01.11.25 | |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur | 1:0 | 03.04.25 | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea | 3:4 | 08.12.24 | |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur | 2:0 | 02.05.24 | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea | 1:4 | 06.11.23 | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea | 2:0 | 26.02.23 | |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur | 2:2 | 14.08.22 | |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur | 2:0 | 23.01.22 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 5-1-1 | 23–5 | 16 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4-1-2 | 17–13 | 13 | LDLWW |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3-3-1 | 9–8 | 12 | WDWLW |
| 19 | Sunderland | 7 | 1-1-5 | 6–14 | 4 | DLLLL |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0-3-3 | 3–9 | 3 | LDDLD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1570
- 16-3003
- 31-4522
- 46-6033
- 61-7551
- 76-9013
- 0-1501
- 16-3000
- 31-4502
- 46-6001
- 61-7504
- 76-9031
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
