FINISHED
Coventry City vs Newcastle United 4:1: result and odds
Coventry City vs Newcastle United finished 4:1. The AI models' pick was Newcastle United to win at 2.09, and it lost.
- Referee: John Brooks · 4.2 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 6 of 38
- +17°, overcast
- The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Newcastle United to win
2.09AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 22 days a Newcastle United win drifted from 2.08 to 2.13 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Newcastle United: 2.09 → 2.13 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Newcastle United win) has drifted from 2.09 to 2.13: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Coventry City | Draw | Newcastle United · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.31+0.06 | 3.59+0.03 | 2.13−0.03 | |
| 3.25+0.08 | 3.56+0.01 | 2.16−0.04 | |
| 3.17+0.03 | 3.55 | 2.20−0.01 | |
| 3.14−0.01 | 3.55−0.01 | 2.21 | |
| 3.15 | 3.56−0.01 | 2.21 | |
| 3.15+0.01 | 3.57−0.01 | 2.21+0.01 | |
| 3.14+0.02 | 3.58 | 2.20−0.01 | |
| 3.12−0.13 | 3.58+0.01 | 2.21+0.06 | |
| 3.25+0.01 | 3.57+0.01 | 2.15 | |
| 3.24−0.01 | 3.56 | 2.15 | |
| 3.25+0.01 | 3.56−0.01 | 2.15 | |
| 3.24−0.01 | 3.57−0.01 | 2.15+0.06 | |
| 7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days | |||
| We published a Newcastle United win at 2.09 | |||
| 3.25−0.06 | 3.58+0.03 | 2.09+0.01 | |
| 27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days | |||
| 3.31opened | 3.55opened | 2.08opened | |
How the match went
- 6'Jack Rudoni penalty1:0
- 48'Sidiki Cherif2:0
- 59'on Amar Dedić, off Lewis Miley
- 59'on Bazoumana Touré, off Jacob Murphy
- 59'on Joelinton, off Joe Willock
- 61'on Tatsuhiro Sakamoto, off Ephron Mason-Clark
- 66'Milan van Ewijk YC
- 70'Sven Botman (Nico González)2:1
- 78'on Frank Onyeka, off Caleb Yirenkyi
- 78'on Ellis Simms, off Sidiki Cherif
- 78'on William Osula, off Yoane Wissa
- 81'Ellis Simms (Brandon Thomas-Asante)3:1
- 81'Joelinton YC
- 83'on Victor Torp, off Jack Rudoni
- 83'on Stephen Mfuni, off Matt Grimes
- 86'Stephen Mfuni (Jay Dasilva)4:1
- 90'on Dan Burn, off Bazoumana Touré
| Coventry City | stat | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | expected goals (xG) | 1.87 |
| 9 | shots | 19 |
| 6 | on target | 6 |
| 33% | possession | 67% |
| 2 | corners | 6 |
| 3 | fouls | 10 |
| 4 | saves | 2 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 1 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Coventry City- 19C. Rushworth6.7
- 3J. Dasilva7.2
- 4B. Thomas6.7
- 2E. Pinnock6.2
- 27M. van Ewijk6.4
- 6M. Grimes6.4
- 8Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi6.6
- 10E. Mason-Clark6.2
- 5J. Rudoni6.3
- 23B. Thomas-Asante7.1
- 49S. Cherif7.4
- 38G. Hamer
- 29V. Torpon 83'6.5
- 16F. Onyekaon 78'6.8
- 7T. Sakamotoon 61'6.0
- 22J. Latibeaudiere
- 12S. Mfunion 83'7.5
- 25D. Bentley
- 9E. Simmson 78'7.4
- 34Y. Gboho
Newcastle United- 21L. Horníček5.8
- 3L. Hall6.1
- 4S. Botman7.5
- 12M. Thiaw5.9
- 67L. Miley6.2
- 28J. Willock6.6
- 6Nico González — highest feed rating in the match7.7
- 11H. Barnes6.7
- 9Y. Wissa6.0
- 23J. Murphy6.1
- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo6.0
- 10W. Osulaon 78'6.4
- 1N. Pope
- 37A. Dedićon 59'5.8
- 5F. Schär
- 33D. Burnon 90'0.0
- 8A. Bamba
- 7Joelintonon 59'5.4
- 17B. Touréon 59'6.6
- 14Sean Steur
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on a Newcastle United win — the bet lost. 2 more bet on at least one side failing to score — the bet lost. The other 3 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet, double chance and a Coventry City win.
- 11 of 162our betodds 2.09ChatGPTDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistral
SonarNemotron SuperNemotron Ultralost - 2 of 16BTTS noodds 2.38KimiMiniMaxlost
- 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.66
Dots3-Notewon - 1 of 161Xodds 1.71Claudewon
- 1 of 161odds 3.25Xiaomi MiMowon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC
Long spells of this one look like being spent with Coventry City simply defending their goal. The hosts sit 18th with three points after five rounds, have scored one goal and conceded 10 in their last five matches, and are still waiting for a first goal in front of their own fans: nothing scored and six conceded in two games at home. Newcastle United are ninth on eight points, level on goals with nine scored and nine conceded, and have kept a clean sheet in half of their away matches. The market makes the visitors strong favourites, with a price of 2.09 on the away win against 3.25 for Coventry City, which works out at around 45%.
Where we could be wrong
Coventry City did win their last match, though, and at home they should play with more belief than those numbers suggest. Newcastle United's away form is choppy too, with two draws and a defeat in their last five games, and the hosts' home record comes from just two matches. Even so, we're backing Newcastle United to win at 2.09.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Coventry City| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | Nottingham Forest | A | 1:0 | W |
| 16.09 | Aston VillaEFL Cup | H | 1:3 | L |
| 13.09 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | 0:5 | L |
| 05.09 | Manchester City | A | 0:1 | L |
| 29.08 | Hull City | H | 0:1 | L |
Newcastle United| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | Hull City | H | 2:1 | W |
| 14.09 | Leeds United | A | 1:4 | L |
| 08.09 | MillwallEFL Cup | A | 1:0 | W |
| 05.09 | Bournemouth | H | 2:2 | D |
| 29.08 | Tottenham Hotspur | A | 2:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.2 / 2 | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1.8 | 1.5 |
| shots | 10.2 / 17.4 | 10.2 / 19.6 | 13.9 |
| shots on target | 3.2 / 4.4 | 3.6 / 5.6 | 4.4 |
| corners | 4 / 4.6 | 4.4 / 6 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 12 / 10.4 | 12.2 / 13 | 11.4 |
| yellow cards | 0.8 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 2.4 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| both scored | 0% | 80% | |
| clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| failed to score | 80% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0 / 3 | 1.5 / 2 | |
| average total | 3 | 3.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 0% | 50% | |
- Coventry City score less than the league average: 0.2 vs 1.4
- Newcastle United score more than the league average: 1.8 vs 1.4
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Coventry City, away games only for Newcastle United
