FINISHED
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest 3:1: result and odds
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest finished 3:1. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.74, and it won.
- Referee: Peter Bankes · 3.8 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 6 of 38
- +14°, overcast
- Selhurst Park, London
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.74AI models' pick · 11 of 15 for this bet, 4 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 7%0:2 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 21 days a Crystal Palace win drifted from 2.63 to 2.79 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.74 → 1.66 since we published · Nottingham Forest became the favourite in 1X2View
Since we published, our bet (both teams score) has shortened from 1.74 to 1.66: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | 2.13+0.01 | |
| 1.66 | 2.12−0.01 | |
| 1.66+0.01 | 2.13 | |
| 1.65−0.09 | 2.13+0.05 | |
| 7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.74 | ||
| 1.74−0.02 | 2.08+0.13 | |
| 27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days | ||
| 1.76opened | 1.95opened | |
How the match went
- 3'Dan Ndoye0:1
- 16'Jefferson Lerma YC
- 41'Daichi Kamada (Quinten Timber)1:1
- 45+4'Jefferson Lerma (Adam Wharton)2:1
- 59'Yeremy Pino3:1
- 60'Yeremy Pino YC
- 66'on Ibrahim Sangaré, off Xaver Schlager
- 72'on Callum Hudson-Odoi, off Dan Ndoye
- 72'on Chris Wood, off Liam Delap
- 72'on Honest Ahanor, off Jefferson Lerma
- 73'Ola Aina YC
- 83'on Ismaila Sarr, off Yeremy Pino
- 83'on Eddie Nketiah, off Jörgen Strand Larsen
- 83'on Arnaud Kalimuendo, off Ola Aina
- 90'on Dwight McNeil, off Daichi Kamada
- 90+4'Murillo Santiago YC
| Crystal Palace | stat | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 2.42 | expected goals (xG) | 2.98 |
| 13 | shots | 24 |
| 7 | on target | 6 |
| 43% | possession | 57% |
| 5 | corners | 8 |
| 11 | fouls | 10 |
| 4 | saves | 4 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Crystal Palace- 44W. Benítez6.8
- 6J. Canvot7.0
- 26C. Richards7.0
- 8J. Lerma6.6
- 3T. Mitchell6.3
- 23Q. Timber6.5
- 20A. Wharton7.7
- 25A. Khalaili6.1
- 10Yeremy Pino — highest feed rating in the match8.1
- 18D. Kamada7.5
- 22J. Strand Larsen6.3
- 7I. Sarron 83'6.5
- 19W. Hughes
- 28C. Doucouré
- 11D. McNeilon 90'0.0
- 30Óscar Mingueza
- 21H. Ahanoron 72'6.4
- 31R. Matthews
- 29E. Guessand
- 9E. Nketiahon 83'6.4
Nottingham Forest- 26M. Sels6.7
- 5Murillo6.3
- 2O. Diomande6.6
- 34O. Aina5.7
- 3N. Williams7.0
- 24J. McAtee5.8
- 21X. Schlager6.5
- 27D. Muñoz6.1
- 14D. Ndoye6.7
- 10M. Gibbs-White6.5
- 19L. Delap6.0
- 9C. Woodon 72'6.2
- 12John
- 23Jair
- 25L. Netz
- 8N. Domínguez
- 7C. Hudson-Odoion 72'6.3
- 6I. Sangaréon 66'5.9
- 22R. Yates
- 15A. Kalimuendoon 83'6.4
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 2 more each on a Nottingham Forest win (lost) and on a draw (lost).
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC
Barely anything separates these two in the market: 2.64 on Crystal Palace, 2.67 on Nottingham Forest, with the chance of both teams scoring rated at 55%. Palace have played two matches at home, and in each of them both sides scored and the game went over 2.5 goals; Forest's two away outings tell exactly the same story. Recent form is not about clean sheets either — over the last five matches Palace scored six and conceded 11, Forest scored four and conceded five. The last three meetings all ended 1-1, in February, in August 2025 and in May 2025. We're backing both teams to score at 1.74.
Where we could be wrong
And what if the pair shut each other down again? Forest won 1-0 in October 2024, and in October 2023 it finished 0-0 at Selhurst Park. The two are a level match and both know how to play it cautiously, and over 17 days the odds have shifted against the hosts, so Forest may well turn up chasing a goalless draw.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Crystal Palace| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.10 | Bristol Cityclub friendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 20.09 | Leeds United | A | 0:0 | D |
| 17.09 | Lech PoznańEuropa League | H | 4:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Ipswich Town | H | 2:3 | L |
| 08.09 | MiddlesbroughEFL Cup | H | 3:0 | W |
Nottingham Forest| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | Coventry City | H | 0:1 | L |
| 12.09 | Aston Villa | A | 2:1 | W |
| 05.09 | Tottenham Hotspur | H | 0:0 | D |
| 29.08 | Liverpool | A | 2:2 | D |
| 25.08 | Leeds UnitedEFL Cup | H | 0:2 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.2 / 2.2 | 0.8 / 1 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 1 | 1.5 |
| shots | 10.6 / 16.8 | 16.4 / 10.4 | 13.9 |
| shots on target | 3.6 / 5.6 | 3.4 / 3 | 4.4 |
| corners | 2.4 / 4.8 | 3.4 / 4.6 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 9.6 / 9.6 | 15 / 12.4 | 11.4 |
| yellow cards | 1.2 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 1.8 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| both scored | 60% | 40% | |
| clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.5 / 3.5 | 2 / 1.5 | |
| average total | 5 | 3.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| both scored | 100% | 100% | |
- Crystal Palace shoot less often than the league average: 10.6 shots vs 13.9
- Nottingham Forest score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.4
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Crystal Palace, away games only for Nottingham Forest
Head to head
0–6–2Crystal Palace wins · draws · Nottingham Forest wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | 1:1 | 01.02.26 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest | 1:1 | 24.08.25 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest | 1:1 | 05.05.25 | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | 1:0 | 21.10.24 | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | 1:1 | 30.03.24 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest | 0:0 | 07.10.23 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest | 1:1 | 28.05.23 | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | 1:0 | 12.11.22 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 0 of 8
