FINISHED
Hull City vs Everton 2:2: result and odds
Hull City vs Everton finished 2:2. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.75, and it lost.
- Referee: Michael Salisbury · 4.1 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 6 of 38
- +13°, mostly clear
- The MKM Stadium, Hull
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.75AI models' pick · 14 of 16 for this bet, 2 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
1:2 9%2:1 8%0:1 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 21 days a Hull City win drifted from 3.61 to 3.65 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.75 → 1.78 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has drifted from 1.75 to 1.78: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 2.06+0.05 | 1.78−0.04 | |
| 2.01+0.01 | 1.82 | |
| 2.00 | 1.82−0.01 | |
| 2.00−0.07 | 1.83+0.08 | |
| 7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days | ||
| We published under 2.5 goals at 1.75 | ||
| 2.07−0.16 | 1.75+0.08 | |
| 27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days | ||
| 2.23opened | 1.67opened | |
How the match went
- 13'Matt Crooks YC
- 21'Oliver McBurnie YC
- 34'goal disallowed (VAR) · Brennan Johnson
- 48'Joe Gelhardt (Sorba Thomas)1:0
- 55'Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Ainsley Maitland-Niles)1:1
- 64'on Elliot Stroud, off Ryan Giles
- 64'on Mohamed Belloumi, off Joe Gelhardt
- 65'on Tim Iroegbunam, off Matt Crooks
- 66'on Tyrique George, off Brennan Johnson
- 68'Thierno Barry (Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall)1:2
- 74'Mohamed Belloumi (Elliot Stroud)2:2
- 75'on Hidemasa Morita, off Regan Slater
- 78'on Hayden Hackney, off Harrison Armstrong
- 78'on Jake O'Brien, off Ainsley Maitland-Niles
- 86'on Robinio Vaz, off Sorba Thomas
- 86'on Tyler Dibling, off Jack Grealish
- 86'on Charly Alcaraz, off Thierno Barry
| Hull City | stat | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.37 | expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 9 | shots | 15 |
| 5 | on target | 7 |
| 35% | possession | 65% |
| 7 | corners | 6 |
| 15 | fouls | 4 |
| 4 | saves | 2 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 0 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Hull City- 19K. Tzolakis6.7
- 3R. Giles6.2
- 32N. Mendy6.1
- 15J. Egan5.9
- 6S. Ajayi6.2
- 2L. Coyle6.6
- 7S. Thomas7.7
- 27R. Slater6.4
- 25M. Crooks6.3
- 11J. Gelhardt8.0
- 9O. McBurnie6.3
- 47R. Vazon 86'6.5
- 42T. Iroegbunamon 65'6.0
- 21E. Stroudon 64'5.8
- 18B. Norton-Cuffy
- 5H. Moritaon 75'6.1
- 10M. Belloumion 64'8.2
- 22L. Herrington
- 17P. McNair
- 12D. Phillips
Everton- 1J. Pickford6.1
- 4J. Branthwaite6.6
- 5M. Keane7.1
- 6J. Tarkowski7.1
- 2A. Maitland-Niles6.9
- 45H. Armstrong6.3
- 37J. Garner7.2
- 10J. Grealish6.8
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall — highest feed rating in the match9.0
- 22B. Johnson6.3
- 11T. Barry7.5
- 58B. Graham
- 19Tyrique Georgeon 66'6.4
- 30H. Hackneyon 78'6.0
- 34M. Röhl
- 24C. Alcarazon 86'6.2
- 23C. Nørgaard
- 20T. Diblingon 86'6.5
- 15J. O'Brienon 78'6.2
- 12M. Travers
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 2 more bet on an Everton win — the bet lost.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in both of their home matches this season, and in one of them they failed to score themselves. Everton are every bit as frugal on the road: half a goal scored and half a goal conceded per game, and both away trips finished under 2.5 goals. The two sides sit next to each other in the Premier League table, eight points for the hosts and nine for the visitors after five rounds, and neither attack is firing — six goals each in their last five games, with four conceded by Hull City and three by Everton. The market rates a low-scoring game at 54%.
Where we could be wrong
The catch is that this home and away picture rests on two matches apiece, and one early goal would send the game down a different road. Everton arrive on the back of a win, and if the visitors open the scoring Hull City will have to come out and chase, which is when the goals tend to arrive. The only previous meeting, in the FA Cup in January 2022, ended 2-3 with five goals. Even so, we're backing under 2.5 goals at 1.75.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Hull City| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | Newcastle United | A | 1:2 | L |
| 12.09 | Chelsea | A | 2:2 | D |
| 08.09 | SunderlandEFL Cup | A | 0:1 | L |
| 05.09 | Aston Villa | H | 0:0 | D |
| 29.08 | Coventry City | A | 1:0 | W |
Everton| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | Ipswich Town | H | 1:0 | W |
| 16.09 | Wolverhampton WanderersEFL Cup | H | 1:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Tottenham Hotspur | A | 0:0 | D |
| 06.09 | Manchester United | H | 2:2 | D |
| 29.08 | Bournemouth | A | 1:1 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.1 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.5 |
| shots | 12.2 / 13.8 | 16 / 13.8 | 13.9 |
| shots on target | 3.8 / 4.2 | 4.6 / 3.6 | 4.4 |
| corners | 3.4 / 6 | 5 / 4.4 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 10 / 7.2 | 8 / 12.6 | 11.4 |
| yellow cards | 3.4 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| both scored | 40% | 40% | |
| clean sheets | 60% | 60% | |
| failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 0 | 0.5 / 0.5 | |
| average total | 1 | 1 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| both scored | 0% | 50% | |
- Hull City score less than the league average: 1.2 vs 1.4
- Everton shoot more often than the league average: 16 shots vs 13.9
- Everton unbeaten in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Hull City, away games only for Everton
Head to head
0–0–1Hull City wins · draws · Everton wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City vs Everton | 2:3 | 08.01.22 | FA Cup |
