FINISHED
Ipswich Town vs Fulham 2:1: result and odds
Ipswich Town vs Fulham finished 2:1. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 2.08, and it lost.
- Referee: Lewis Smith · 4 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 6 of 38
- +14°, cloudy, wind 24 km/h
- Portman Road, Ipswich
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
2.08AI models' pick · 9 of 15 for this bet, 6 for others
Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9% — this score came in1:0 9%2:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 20 days an Ipswich Town win drifted from 2.68 to 2.74 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 2.08 → 2.12 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has drifted from 2.08 to 2.12: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74+0.01 | 2.12+0.04 | |
| 7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days | ||
| We published under 2.5 goals at 2.08 | ||
| 1.73−0.05 | 2.08+0.02 | |
| 27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days | ||
| 1.78opened | 2.06opened | |
How the match went
Fulham broke through on 55 minutes, Ryan Sessegnon finishing after a goalless first half, and held that lead until the closing stages. Ipswich levelled through Abdoul Ouattara on 88 minutes, then Dara O'Shea, set up by Jack Clarke, put them ahead early in stoppage time for a 2-1 win. Our under 2.5 goals bet at odds of 2.08 went down once that third goal landed. Fulham had the better underlying picture, 1.87 expected goals to 1.22 and 13 shots to 11, five on target each, with 52% of the ball against 48%; Fulham also had five corners to Ipswich's two. Before kick-off Fulham were favoured around 2.51, Ipswich sat close behind near 2.74, the draw was out near 3.47, and both teams to score had been on offer at 1.61.
- 19'Leif Davis YC
- 44'Josh King YC
- 51'Calvin Bassey YC
- 55'Ryan Sessegnon0:1
- 63'on Exequiel Palacios, off Florentino Luís
- 63'on Jack Clarke, off Jaden Philogene-Bidace
- 71'on Chuba Akpom, off Julio Enciso
- 71'on Zian Flemming, off Emersonn
- 71'on Manuel Ángel Morán, off Shea Charles
- 76'on Rodrigo Muniz, off Josh King
- 76'on Kevin Santos Lopes de Macedo, off Oscar Bobb
- 81'on Sindre Walle Egeli, off Daizen Maeda
- 84'Manuel Ángel Morán YC
- 87'on Hugo Larsson, off Gonzalo García
- 87'on Emile Smith Rowe, off Alex Iwobi
- 88'Abdoul Ouattara1:1
- 90+1'Dara O'Shea (Jack Clarke)2:1
- 90+4'Emile Smith Rowe YC
- 90+7'Christian Walton YC
| Ipswich Town | stat | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | expected goals (xG) | 1.87 |
| 11 | shots | 13 |
| 5 | on target | 5 |
| 48% | possession | 52% |
| 2 | corners | 5 |
| 8 | fouls | 10 |
| 3 | saves | 3 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 4 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Ipswich Town- 28C. Walton6.4
- 3L. Davis6.3
- 26D. O'Shea7.4
- 6I. Diop7.0
- 42A. Ouattara — highest feed rating in the match7.7
- 12Florentino6.6
- 23S. Lukić7.1
- 11J. Philogene6.5
- 10J. Enciso6.7
- 38D. Maeda6.3
- 19Emersonn6.3
- 29C. Akpomon 71'6.6
- 47J. Clarkeon 63'6.8
- 9Z. Flemmingon 71'6.4
- 2D. Furlong
- 24J. Greaves
- 5A. Matusiwa
- 25E. Palacioson 63'7.0
- 37K. Scherpen
- 8S. Egelion 81'6.7
Fulham- 1B. Leno6.5
- 30R. Sessegnon7.7
- 3C. Bassey6.9
- 22D. Affengruber6.1
- 2K. Tete6.8
- 19S. Charles6.6
- 16S. Berge6.7
- 17A. Iwobi7.0
- 24Joshua King6.3
- 14Oscar Bobb5.7
- 7Gonzalo García5.6
- 11Kevinon 76'6.5
- 8César Palacios
- 9Rodrigo Munizon 76'6.4
- 20Manuel Ángelon 71'6.0
- 23B. Lecomte
- 15H. Larssonon 87'6.2
- 21T. Castagne
- 5J. Andersen
- 32E. Smith Roweon 87'6.0
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 2 more bet on a Fulham win — the bet lost. The other 4 chose a bet each: double chance, both teams to score, 'both to score — no' and an Ipswich Town win.
- 9 of 15U 2.5our betodds 2.08ClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxlost - 2 of 152odds 2.43Xiaomi MiMoNemotron Superlost
- 1 of 15X2odds 1.43
Sonarlost - 1 of 15BTTSodds 1.61Mistralwon
- 1 of 15BTTS noodds 2.29ChatGPTlost
- 1 of 151odds 2.77
Dots3-Notewon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC
The last two meetings between Ipswich Town and Fulham both ended level — 2-2 in January 2025 and 1-1 in August 2024 — and across four head-to-heads the hosts have not won once. Fulham have yet to score in either of their two away games this season, keeping a clean sheet in one of them, while Ipswich are limited to a goal a game at home and have failed to score in half of their home matches.
The market puts the chance of under 2.5 goals at around 45%, and neither a wind of 22 km/h nor the three-week break before this round looks likely to add tempo. Fulham sit 19th in the Premier League with two points after five rounds and five goals scored. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.08.
Where we could be wrong
The risk is clear enough: from that position in the table the visitors have to go forward, and the four-goal game in January is a reminder that these two can open up.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Ipswich Town| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.09 | Everton | A | 0:1 | L |
| 15.09 | ArsenalEFL Cup | H | 2:4 | L |
| 12.09 | Crystal Palace | A | 3:2 | W |
| 04.09 | Liverpool | H | 0:2 | L |
| 30.08 | Manchester United | A | 2:5 | L |
Fulham| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.09 | Manchester United | H | 1:1 | D |
| 15.09 | West Ham UnitedEFL Cup | A | 3:2 | W |
| 12.09 | Liverpool | A | 0:0 | D |
| 05.09 | Crystal Palace | H | 2:3 | L |
| 30.08 | Sunderland | A | 0:1 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.4 / 2.2 | 1 / 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.5 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.5 |
| shots | 11.6 / 17.2 | 14.4 / 16.6 | 13.9 |
| shots on target | 4.6 / 5.6 | 4.4 / 4.8 | 4.4 |
| corners | 3.6 / 5.2 | 5.6 / 5.2 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 11.6 / 9.2 | 10 / 8 | 11.4 |
| yellow cards | 1.6 / 2 | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| both scored | 60% | 60% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 1.5 | 0 / 0.5 | |
| average total | 2.5 | 0.5 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| both scored | 50% | 0% | |
- Ipswich Town shoot less often than the league average: 11.6 shots vs 13.9
- Fulham score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.4
- Fulham without a win in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Ipswich Town, away games only for Fulham
Head to head
0–2–2Ipswich Town wins · draws · Fulham wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham vs Ipswich Town | 2:2 | 05.01.25 | |
| Ipswich Town vs Fulham | 1:1 | 31.08.24 | |
| Ipswich Town vs Fulham | 1:3 | 01.11.23 | EFL Cup |
| Ipswich Town vs Fulham | 0:1 | 16.09.20 | EFL Cup |
- both scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 4
