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data updated 17.10 21:23

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Leeds United vs Manchester United: AI prediction and betting pick

On 18 October, Leeds United host Manchester United. The AI models' pick is Leeds United to win at 2.35: 11 of 16 models chose it.

published · updated UTC

Leeds United
Manchester United

AI models' pick: Leeds United to win

2.35

AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others

Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results

Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:113%odds 6.92

2:1 9%1:2 8%1:0 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

Match odds

last line update 17.10 21:19

result12.36 — matches our bet−0.09X3.58+0.0122.91+0.23
total 2.5O1.67+0.03U2.23−0.04
both to scoreyes1.53+0.01no2.36−0.06
double chance1X1.42−0.03121.29X21.58+0.05
handicaptaken 15.10 03:17H1 +11.20−0.01H2 −14.29+0.13

Over 5 days a Leeds United win shortened from 2.45 to 2.36 — money is coming in on the home side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Leeds United: 2.35 → 2.36 since we publishedView

The biggest move is a Manchester United win: from 2.68 to 2.91.

Leeds United2.45 → 2.36our betDraw3.57 → 3.58Manchester United2.68 → 2.91
2.252.502.753.003.253.5012 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 OctWe published · 2.35Draw 3.58Manchester United 2.91Leeds United 2.36

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenLeeds United · our betDrawManchester United
2.363.58+0.012.91
2.36+0.023.57−0.012.91
2.343.58+0.012.91
2.34+0.013.57−0.012.91−0.02
2.33−0.023.58+0.052.93+0.06
We published a Leeds United win at 2.35
2.35−0.023.53−0.032.87+0.05
2.37−0.053.56+0.012.82+0.10
2.42−0.033.55−0.012.72+0.05
2.453.56−0.012.67−0.01
2.45opened3.57opened2.68opened
71 snapshots · the prices changed 9 times

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models went for a Leeds United win. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Leeds United draw no bet. 3 more went for both teams to score. The other 2 chose a bet each: a Manchester United handicap and a total-goals bet.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 09:20 UTC

Leeds United have not lost at home: two wins and a draw, with 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. After six rounds Farke's side are seventh on 9 points, against 6 for thirteenth-placed Manchester United. The visitors have no win from three away league matches, one goal scored and 1.7 conceded per game, and not a single clean sheet. Seven players are unavailable, including Sesko, who scored 12 goals last season, Mainoo and Mazraoui.

The prices have drifted towards the hosts over three days: 2.45 has become 2.37, while Manchester United have gone out from 2.68 to 2.82. Last season Leeds won in Manchester, and the home meeting between the two ended in a draw.

Where we could be wrong

Leeds have three absences of their own, and they bite: defender Rodon plus both forwards, James and Joseph, so a cutting edge may be hard to find. Five of the last ten head-to-heads were draws, and on shots and possession Manchester United look the tighter team this season, so an even game with no winner is easy to picture. Even so, our pick is a Leeds United win at 2.35.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Injuries and suspensions

snapshot 15.10 21:38
Leeds United
  • D. JamesFW · 21 matches in 2025/26back injuryout
  • M. JosephFW · 30 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
  • J. RodonDF · 38 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
Manchester United
  • P. DorguMF · 29 matches in 2025/26hamstring injuryout
  • T. HeatonGKabdominal strainout
  • K. MainooMF · 33 matches in 2025/26injuryout
  • N. MazraouiDF · 23 matches in 2025/26injuryout
  • B. SeskoFW · 12 goals in 2025/26leg injuryout
  • L. ShawDF · 43 matches in 2025/26injuryout
  • M. UgarteMF · 27 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout

managers: Daniel Farke · Michael Carrick · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Leeds United
Recent matches: Leeds United
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10.10ArsenalA1:2xG 0.6–2.3L
20.09Crystal PalaceH0:0xG 1.3–1.1D
14.09Newcastle UnitedH4:1W
09.09ChelseaEFL CupA3:6L
05.09Brighton & Hove AlbionA1:1xG 2.5–2.2D
30.08BrentfordH1:1xG 1.5–1.7D
Manchester United
Recent matches: Manchester United
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13.10Atlético MadridChampions LeagueA0:2xG 1.0–1.5L
10.10Tottenham HotspurH1:1xG 0.8–1.6D
20.09FulhamA1:1xG 1.6–1.6D
16.09Brighton & Hove AlbionEFL CupH2:3L
13.09Manchester CityH0:1xG 1.0–1.1L
10.09SabahChampions LeagueH4:0W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstLeeds UnitedManchester UnitedEPL
goals1.3 / 0.81.5 / 1.51.5
xG1.4 / 1.41.7 / 1.41.5
shots12 / 14.320.8 / 10.813.8
shots on target3.8 / 4.55.3 / 4.34.5
corners4.3 / 4.36.7 / 3.84.7
fouls12.2 / 1310.3 / 10.711.5
yellow cards1.8 / 2.51.7 / 2.71.9
matches over 2.533%33%
both scored67%67%
clean sheets33%0%
failed to score17%33%
home / away
goals1.7 / 0.71 / 1.7
average total2.32.7
matches over 2.533%33%
both scored67%67%
  • Leeds United score less than the league average: 1.3 vs 1.5
  • Manchester United shoot more often than the league average: 20.8 shots vs 13.8
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Leeds United, away games only for Manchester United

Head to head

last 10

1–5–4Leeds United wins · draws · Manchester United wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Manchester United vs Leeds United1:112.08.26club friendly
Manchester United vs Leeds United1:213.04.26
Leeds United vs Manchester United1:104.01.26
Manchester United vs Leeds United0:019.07.25club friendly
Manchester United vs Leeds United2:012.07.23club friendly
Leeds United vs Manchester United0:212.02.23
Manchester United vs Leeds United2:208.02.23
Leeds United vs Manchester United2:420.02.22
Manchester United vs Leeds United5:114.08.21
Leeds United vs Manchester United0:025.04.21
  • both scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10

League table

League standings: Premier League
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
6Chelsea63-1-215–1310WLDLW
7Leeds United62-3-18–59DDWDL
8Hull City62-3-18–69WDDLD
12Crystal Palace62-1-39–127LWLDW
13Manchester United61-3-29–96WDLDD
14Coventry City62-0-45–116LLLWW

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right

Goals by minute

league season
Leeds United
  • 0-1510
  • 16-3000
  • 31-4522
  • 46-6020
  • 61-7503
  • 76-9021
Manchester United
  • 0-1500
  • 16-3002
  • 31-4511
  • 46-6012
  • 61-7540
  • 76-9034

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

Full Premier League fixtures
13:00Bournemouth–SunderlandOur pick:BTTS1.6614 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.10X 3.482 3.5013:00Brighton & Hove Albion–Crystal PalaceOur pick:H1 (−1)1.9311 of 16 on this bet · 3 more in the same direction1 1.52X 4.532 5.7315:30Nottingham Forest–ArsenalOur pick:BTTS no1.8311 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 5.68X 3.822 1.65