Skip to content
Menu

data updated 14.10 03:20

FINISHED

Liverpool vs Manchester City 0:3: result and odds

Liverpool vs Manchester City finished 0:3. The AI models' pick was Manchester City to win at 2.51, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Liverpool
Manchester City

AI models' pick: Manchester City to win

2.51

AI models' pick · 8 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction

Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results

won+1.51 unitsclosing odds2.05CLV+22%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:113%

1:2 9%2:1 8%0:0 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 11.10 15:17

result13.14+0.19X3.72+0.0722.18 — matches our bet−0.04
total 2.5O1.57−0.04U2.34+0.01
both to scoreyes1.48−0.02no2.51+0.08
double chance1X1.70+0.06121.28+0.01X21.35−0.04
handicaptaken 07.10 07:46H1 01.95H2 01.94

Over 21 days a Manchester City win shortened from 2.22 to 2.18 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Manchester City: 2.51 → 2.18 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (a Manchester City win) has shortened from 2.51 to 2.18: the market now rates it as more likely.

Liverpool2.95 → 3.14Draw3.65 → 3.72Manchester City2.22 → 2.18our bet
2.503.003.5010 daysno data3 daysno data20 Sep22 Sep24 Sep26 Sep7 Oct10 OctWe published · 2.51Draw 3.72Liverpool 3.14Manchester City 2.18

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenLiverpoolDrawManchester City · our bet
3.14+0.093.72+0.042.18−0.05
3.05+0.103.68+0.012.23−0.04
2.95+0.013.67−0.012.27
2.94+0.043.68+0.012.27−0.03
2.90+0.013.67−0.022.30+0.01
2.89+0.333.69+0.022.29−0.22
7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days
We published a Manchester City win at 2.51
2.56−0.393.67+0.022.51+0.29
27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days
2.95opened3.65opened2.22opened
122 snapshots · the prices changed 7 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 11.10 18:00

  1. 8'LiverpoolRonald Araujo YC
  2. 47'LiverpoolRyan Gravenberch YC
  3. 56'Manchester Cityon Jeremy Doku, off Iliman Ndiaye
  4. 58'Manchester CityNico O'Reilly YC
  5. 62'LiverpoolRyan Gravenberch RC
  6. 65'Manchester CityErling Haaland0:1
  7. 66'Liverpoolon Treymaurice Nyoni, off Florian Wirtz
  8. 66'Manchester Cityon Josko Gvardiol, off Nico O'Reilly
  9. 68'Manchester CityJeremy Doku (Elliot Anderson)0:2
  10. 75'Liverpoolon Jeremie Frimpong, off Ronald Araujo
  11. 75'Liverpoolon Rio Ngumoha, off Lewis Koumas
  12. 78'Manchester CityRayan Cherki (Josko Gvardiol)0:3
  13. 80'Manchester Cityon Allan Andrade Elias, off Erling Haaland
  14. 80'Manchester Cityon Ayyoub Bouaddi, off Enzo Fernández
  15. 86'Manchester CityAyyoub Bouaddi YC
  16. 88'Liverpoolon Joe Gomez, off Jérémy Jacquet
  17. 88'Liverpoolon Federico Chiesa, off Bradley Barcola
  18. 90+1'LiverpoolVirgil van Dijk YC
Match stats: Liverpool vs Manchester City
LiverpoolstatManchester City
0.94expected goals (xG)1.36
13shots15
6on target4
35%possession65%
5corners6
19fouls14
1saves6
2yellow cards2
1red cards0
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Liverpool

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager Andoni Iraola

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1Alisson Becker5.5
  • 6M. Kerkez6.0
  • 4V. van Dijk5.7
  • 5J. Jacquet6.5
  • 33R. Araújo5.8
  • 10A. Mac Allister6.7
  • 38R. Gravenberch6.0
  • 29B. Barcola6.3
  • 7F. Wirtz6.2
  • 23Víctor Muñoz6.2
  • 67L. Koumas6.3
substitutes
  • 73R. Ngumohaon 75'6.4
  • 14F. Chiesaon 88'6.6
  • 42T. Nyonion 66'5.9
  • 3W. Endo
  • 30J. Frimpongon 75'6.1
  • 21K. Tsimikas
  • 2J. Gomezon 88'6.1
  • 25G. Mamardashvili
  • 53J. McConnell
Manchester City

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager E. Maresca

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1G. Donnarumma8.1
  • 33N. O'Reilly6.5
  • 6M. Guéhi7.4
  • 3Rúben Dias7.7
  • 27Matheus Nunes7.0
  • 17E. Fernández7.0
  • 5E. Anderson7.7
  • 42A. Semenyo7.2
  • 10R. Cherki — highest feed rating in the match8.2
  • 7I. Ndiaye6.7
  • 9E. Haaland7.5
substitutes
  • 37Allanon 80'6.5
  • 32A. Bouaddion 80'6.9
  • 11J. Dokuon 56'7.9
  • 8M. Kovačić
  • 82R. Lewis
  • 45A. Khusanov
  • 24J. Gvardiolon 66'7.4
  • 22Vitor Nunes
  • 28G. Rulli

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on a Manchester City win — the bet won. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: Manchester City not losing. 2 more bet on Liverpool not losing — the bet lost. The other 4 chose a bet each: a Liverpool handicap, both teams to score and total-goals bets.

  • 8 of 152our betodds 2.51DeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashNemotron SuperNemotron Ultrawon
  • 2 of 151Xodds 1.50GLMMiniMaxlost
  • 1 of 15H1 (+1)odds 1.27Dots3-Notelost
  • 1 of 15BTTSodds 1.48Mistrallost
  • 1 of 15X2same directionodds 1.48Sonarwon
  • 1 of 15O 2.5odds 1.56Claudewon
  • 1 of 15U 3.5odds 1.58ChatGPTwon

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC

Manchester City come into this one top of the Premier League on 15 points, with five straight wins behind them, 13 goals scored and five conceded in that run. Liverpool sit sixth on 9 points after two wins and three draws in their last five. The six points between them in the table understate how far the two have drifted apart, and the recent meetings belong to the visitors too: a 3-0 win in November 2025, a 2-1 win at Anfield in February 2026 and 4-0 in the FA Cup in April. At 2.51 a City win is rated at 37%, exactly what the market gives the hosts, even though the results of the past year point firmly one way. Our pick is Manchester City to win at 2.51.

Where we could be wrong

The risk is the shape of Liverpool's home games, which are tight and short on goals — roughly a goal scored and a goal conceded per match, two in total. In that sort of contest one moment would be enough to deny City the three points, and the hosts went a long time without losing to them at Anfield: 2-0 in December 2024 and a 1-1 draw in March of the same year. Even so, the form and the head-to-heads leave the edge with the away side.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Liverpool
Recent matches: Liverpool
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09BournemouthA1:0W
15.09Tottenham HotspurEFL CupH3:1W
12.09FulhamH0:0D
09.09Atlético MadridChampions LeagueH2:1W
04.09Ipswich TownA2:0W
Manchester City
Recent matches: Manchester City
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09SunderlandH5:3W
17.09Norwich CityEFL CupH5:0W
13.09Manchester UnitedA1:0W
08.09PortoChampions LeagueA2:0W
05.09Coventry CityH1:0W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstLiverpoolManchester CityEPL
goals1.4 / 0.82.6 / 11.4
xG1.7 / 1.22.1 / 1.41.5
shots15.2 / 11.613.6 / 11.813.9
shots on target4.8 / 3.65.4 / 44.4
corners4 / 4.46.2 / 4.24.7
fouls13 / 10.210.6 / 13.411.4
yellow cards2.4 / 21.2 / 1.41.9
matches over 2.540%60%
both scored40%60%
clean sheets60%40%
failed to score20%0%
home / away
goals1 / 12.5 / 0.5
average total23
matches over 2.550%50%
both scored50%50%
  • Manchester City score more than the league average: 2.6 vs 1.4
  • Liverpool unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • Manchester City: 5 league wins in a row
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Liverpool, away games only for Manchester City

Head to head

last 10

3–2–5Liverpool wins · draws · Manchester City wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Manchester City vs Liverpool4:004.04.26FA Cup
Liverpool vs Manchester City1:208.02.26
Manchester City vs Liverpool3:009.11.25
Manchester City vs Liverpool0:223.02.25
Liverpool vs Manchester City2:001.12.24
Liverpool vs Manchester City1:110.03.24
Manchester City vs Liverpool1:125.11.23
Manchester City vs Liverpool4:101.04.23
Manchester City vs Liverpool3:222.12.22EFL Cup
Liverpool vs Manchester City1:016.10.22
  • both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10

Other matches this round

All Premier League results
2:2Hull City–EvertonOur pick:U 2.5prediction lost14 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 3.65X 3.322 2.113:1Crystal Palace–Nottingham ForestOur pick:BTTSprediction won11 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 2.79X 3.342 2.551:1Manchester United–Tottenham HotspurOur pick:1prediction lost8 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction1 1.74X 4.152 4.40