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data updated 14.10 03:20

FINISHED

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur 1:1: result and odds

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur finished 1:1. The AI models' pick was Manchester United to win at 1.70, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur

AI models' pick: Manchester United to win

1.70

AI models' pick · 8 of 16 on this bet · 2 more in the same direction

Our football predictions so far: 56 won · 34 lost · 3 void · +10.13 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds1.68CLV+1%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:111% — this score came in

2:1 10%2:0 7%3:1 6%

The likely score lists the four most likely results. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 10.10 16:07

result11.74 — matches our bet+0.11X4.1524.40−0.37
total 3.5O2.25+0.05U1.66+0.02
both to scoreyes1.49−0.05no2.49+0.16
double chance1X1.21+0.04121.22X22.11−0.13
handicapH1 −0.51.72+0.03H2 +0.52.13+0.01

Over 20 days a Manchester United win drifted from 1.63 to 1.74 — fewer bets on the home side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Manchester United: 1.70 → 1.74 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (a Manchester United win) has drifted from 1.70 to 1.74: the market now rates it as less likely.

Manchester United1.63 → 1.74our betDraw4.15 → 4.15Tottenham Hotspur4.77 → 4.40
1.752.504.005.0010 daysno data3 daysno data20 Sep22 Sep24 Sep26 Sep7 Oct10 OctWe published · 1.70Tottenham Hotspur 4.40Draw 4.15Manchester United 1.74

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenManchester United · our betDrawTottenham Hotspur
1.74+0.014.15+0.014.40
1.73+0.034.14+0.024.40+0.03
7 Oct – 10 Oct · no snapshots for 3 days
We published a Manchester United win at 1.70
1.70+0.074.12−0.034.37−0.40
27 Sep – 7 Oct · no snapshots for 10 days
1.63opened4.15opened4.77opened
108 snapshots · the prices changed 3 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 10.10 22:00

Manchester United led through Bryan Mbeumo's 73rd-minute finish from a Matheus Cunha assist, but Tottenham equalised deep into injury time as Dominic Solanke converted a Sandro Tonali pass on 90+2 minutes. It was 0-0 at half-time. Tottenham's Rodrigo Bentancur was sent off on 78 minutes, yet United failed to turn the extra man into a winner. We backed Manchester United to win at 1.70, and that bet went down. Tottenham actually had the better numbers, 1.62 expected goals to United's 0.85 and 55% of possession to 45%, despite playing the last quarter of an hour with 10 men. Before kick-off the market priced United to win at 1.74, the draw at 4.15 and Tottenham to win at 4.40, while both teams to score was priced at 1.53 and landed, with the two goals scored enough to land the lower goal line at 1.64.

  1. 4'Tottenham HotspurConor Gallagher YC
  2. 59'Manchester Unitedon Joshua Zirkzee, off Amad Diallo
  3. 59'Manchester Unitedon Diogo Dalot, off Leny Yoro
  4. 59'Manchester Unitedon Carlos Baleba, off Youri Tielemans
  5. 66'Tottenham Hotspuron Rodrigo Bentancur, off Lucas Bergvall
  6. 66'Tottenham Hotspuron Omar Marmoush, off Mohammed Kudus
  7. 73'Manchester UnitedBryan Mbeumo (Matheus Cunha)1:0
  8. 74'Tottenham Hotspuron James Maddison, off Conor Gallagher
  9. 74'Tottenham Hotspuron Micky van de Ven, off Destiny Udogie
  10. 78'Tottenham HotspurRodrigo Bentancur RC
  11. 78'Tottenham HotspurJan Paul van Hecke YC
  12. 78'Manchester UnitedLuke Shaw YC
  13. 84'Manchester UnitedBruno Fernandes YC
  14. 87'Manchester UnitedLisandro Martínez YC
  15. 89'Tottenham Hotspuron Mateus Fernandes, off Marcos Senesi
  16. 90+2'Tottenham HotspurDominic Solanke (Sandro Tonali)1:1
  17. 90+5'Manchester Unitedon Marcus Rashford, off Matheus Cunha
  18. 90+5'Manchester Unitedon Ayden Heaven, off Luke Shaw
  19. 90+6'Manchester UnitedDiogo Dalot YC
  20. 90+8'Tottenham HotspurArchie Gray YC
Match stats: Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester UnitedstatTottenham Hotspur
0.85expected goals (xG)1.62
12shots12
4on target3
45%possession55%
4corners4
13fouls16
2saves3
4yellow cards3
0red cards1
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Manchester United

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager M. Carrick

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1S. Lammens6.3
  • 23L. Shaw6.2
  • 6Lisandro Martínez6.7
  • 5H. Maguire7.5
  • 15L. Yoro7.1
  • 37K. Mainoo6.6
  • 18Y. Tielemans6.6
  • 10Matheus Cunha7.0
  • 8Bruno Fernandes6.5
  • 16A. Diallo6.8
  • 19B. Mbeumo — highest feed rating in the match8.1
substitutes
  • 17Andrey Santos
  • 20C. Balebaon 59'7.2
  • 2Diogo Daloton 59'6.7
  • 12K. Darlow
  • 26A. Heavenon 90+5'0.0
  • 31S. Lacey
  • 7M. Mount
  • 9M. Rashfordon 90+5'0.0
  • 11J. Zirkzeeon 59'6.9
Tottenham Hotspur

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager R. De Zerbi

starting XIfeed rating
  • 31A. Kinský6.5
  • 13D. Udogie6.9
  • 5M. Senesi7.0
  • 6J. van Hecke6.3
  • 14A. Gray6.7
  • 16S. Tonali7.7
  • 15L. Bergvall6.6
  • 17Sávio6.7
  • 8C. Gallagher6.5
  • 20M. Kudus6.1
  • 19D. Solanke7.6
substitutes
  • 4T. Adarabioyo
  • 30R. Bentancuron 66'5.6
  • 33B. Davies
  • 39M. Dúbravka
  • 18Mateus Fernandeson 89'6.3
  • 10J. Maddisonon 74'6.8
  • 22Omar Marmoushon 66'6.6
  • 11M. Tel
  • 37M. van de Venon 74'6.4

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on a Manchester United win — the bet lost. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: Manchester United −1. 3 more bet on at least one side failing to score — the bet lost. The other 3 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet, both teams to score and a Tottenham Hotspur handicap.

  • 8 of 161our betodds 1.70GeminiGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxDots3-NoteNemotron Superlost
  • 3 of 16BTTS noodds 2.48ClaudeGLMXiaomi MiMolost
  • 2 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 2.18DeepSeekNemotron Ultralost
  • 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.48Sonarlost
  • 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.53Mistralwon
  • 1 of 16H2 (+1)odds 1.74ChatGPTwon

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 09.10 at 11:17 UTC

Tottenham Hotspur have managed two goals in their last five matches while conceding eight, and on the road this season they have not scored at all. Sitting 20th with two points after five rounds looks about right. Manchester United, by contrast, are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home, and the market puts the hosts at 55% against 22% for the away win. Over 17 days the price has eased from 1.63 to 1.70, but the favourite has not changed inside that move, and our pick is a Manchester United win at 1.70.

Where we could be wrong

What gives pause is Manchester United themselves: eight scored and eight conceded in their last five games, and at home they have yet to keep a clean sheet. The previous meetings are no comfort either — two wins, three draws and five defeats for United in the last 10, which makes the 2-0 win in February look more like an exception. Drizzle and a 21 km/h wind add a touch of randomness to a Premier League game in which the hosts are expected to take control.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Manchester United
Recent matches: Manchester United
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.09FulhamA1:1D
16.09Brighton & Hove AlbionEFL CupH2:3L
13.09Manchester CityH0:1L
10.09SabahChampions LeagueH4:0W
06.09EvertonA2:2D
Tottenham Hotspur
Recent matches: Tottenham Hotspur
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19.09Aston VillaH2:3L
15.09LiverpoolEFL CupA1:3L
12.09EvertonH0:0D
05.09Nottingham ForestA0:0D
29.08Newcastle UnitedH0:2L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstManchester UnitedTottenham HotspurEPL
goals1.6 / 1.60.4 / 1.61.4
xG1.9 / 1.31 / 1.61.5
shots22.6 / 10.614.2 / 15.213.9
shots on target5.6 / 4.63.8 / 4.24.4
corners7.2 / 3.87.6 / 4.64.7
fouls9.8 / 9.613.2 / 13.811.4
yellow cards1.2 / 2.61 / 1.81.9
matches over 2.540%40%
both scored60%20%
clean sheets0%40%
failed to score40%80%
home / away
goals2.5 / 1.50 / 1.5
average total41.5
matches over 2.550%50%
both scored50%0%
  • Manchester United shoot more often than the league average: 22.6 shots vs 13.9
  • Tottenham Hotspur score less than the league average: 0.4 vs 1.4
  • Tottenham Hotspur without a win in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Manchester United, away games only for Tottenham Hotspur

Head to head

last 10

2–3–5Manchester United wins · draws · Tottenham Hotspur wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur2:007.02.26
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United2:208.11.25
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United1:021.05.25Europa League
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United1:016.02.25
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United4:319.12.24EFL Cup
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur0:329.09.24
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur2:214.01.24
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United2:019.08.23
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United2:227.04.23
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur2:019.10.22
  • both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 5 of 10

Other matches this round

All Premier League results
0:2Sunderland–Brighton & Hove AlbionOur pick:2prediction won11 of 15 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 3.08X 3.432 2.315:1Chelsea–BournemouthOur pick:BTTSprediction won11 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.83X 3.922 4.112:1Ipswich Town–FulhamOur pick:U 2.5prediction lost9 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 2.74X 3.472 2.51