FINISHED
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 0:1: result and odds
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa finished 0:1. The AI models' pick was over 2.5 goals at 1.61, and it lost.
- Referee: Jarred Gillett · 3.6 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 7 of 38
- +11°, overcast
- St. James' Park, Newcastle
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals
1.61AI models' pick · 7 of 16 for this bet, 9 for others
Split panelOur football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%2:2 6%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 5 days an Aston Villa win shortened from 3.16 to 2.83 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Over 2.5: 1.61 → 1.57 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (over 2.5 goals) has shortened from 1.61 to 1.57: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 · our bet | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57−0.02 | 2.40 | |
| 1.59−0.02 | 2.40+0.06 | |
| 1.61−0.01 | 2.34+0.02 | |
| 1.62+0.01 | 2.32 | |
| We published over 2.5 goals at 1.61 | ||
| 1.61−0.01 | 2.32 | |
| 1.62+0.01 | 2.32−0.01 | |
| 1.61opened | 2.33opened | |
How the match went
- 18'Joelinton YC
- 18'Sven Botman YC
- 25'João Gomes YC
- 28' Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha YC
- 36'Johan Manzambi (João Gomes)0:1
- 45'on John McGinn, off Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
- 53'Nico González YC
- 55'Yoane Wissa YC
- 56'on Bazoumana Touré, off Matias Fernandez-Pardo
- 56'on William Osula, off Joe Willock
- 72'on Leon Goretzka, off Emiliano Buendía
- 72'on Ross Barkley, off João Gomes
- 72'on Ibrahim Mbaye, off Johan Manzambi
- 77'on Pau Torres, off Aaron Wan-Bissaka
- 78'William Osula YC
- 86'Malick Thiaw YC
- 90'on Dan Burn, off Joelinton
| Newcastle United | stat | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | expected goals (xG) | 1.56 |
| 16 | shots | 15 |
| 1 | on target | 3 |
| 49% | possession | 51% |
| 4 | corners | 5 |
| 14 | fouls | 11 |
| 2 | saves | 1 |
| 6 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Newcastle United- 21L. Horníček6.5
- 3L. Hall6.7
- 4S. Botman6.5
- 12M. Thiaw6.6
- 67L. Miley6.3
- 7Joelinton6.4
- 6Nico González7.0
- 11H. Barnes6.6
- 28J. Willock6.9
- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo5.9
- 9Y. Wissa6.1
- 14Sean Steur
- 17B. Touréon 56'6.3
- 10W. Osulaon 56'6.2
- 23J. Murphy
- 1N. Pope
- 5F. Schär
- 33D. Burnon 90'0.0
- 37A. Dedić
- 8A. Bamba
Aston Villa- 1Z. Suzuki6.6
- 29A. Wan-Bissaka7.2
- 5T. Mings7.1
- 3V. Lindelöf6.8
- 2M. Cash7.3
- 35João Gomes7.7
- 8B. Kamara6.7
- 10E. Buendía6.6
- 44J. Manzambi — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 47Alysson Edward7.4
- 11N. Jackson6.5
- 4T. Harwood-Bellis
- 14Pau Torreson 77'7.0
- 7J. McGinnon 45'6.9
- 6R. Barkleyon 72'7.2
- 26L. Bogarde
- 27L. Goretzkaon 72'7.0
- 19I. Mbayeon 72'6.9
- 40M. Bizot
- 39Brian Madjo
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. 6 more bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. The other 3 chose a bet each: a Newcastle United win, an Aston Villa handicap and a Newcastle United handicap.
- 7 of 16O 2.5our betodds 1.61ClaudeDeepSeek
GeminiKimiMiniMaxXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultralost - 6 of 16BTTSodds 1.51
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMistral
Sonarlost - 1 of 161odds 2.25Nemotron Superlost
- 1 of 16DNB 2odds 2.41ChatGPTwon
- 1 of 16H1 (−1)odds 3.01
Dots3-Notelost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 09:20 UTC
Aston Villa have been modest on the road: an average of one goal in three away games, and in two of them the visitors failed to score at all. The meeting between these two in August 2025 finished goalless. At home, though, Newcastle United leave the door wide open — all three of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring, two goals of their own against 1.7 conceded, and nobody has kept a clean sheet in them. Villa are down three defenders at once, with Maatsen, Ruggeri and Onana out, and yet across the five opening matches of the season they scored 15 with an xG of 1.85 per game and are getting off 16 shots a match. The market rates three goals or more at 59%, and our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.61.
Where we could be wrong
The case against is clear enough. Newcastle are without Elanga and have doubts over Livramento and Ramsey, so they lose pace going forward, while Villa come into this after a Champions League match and may pick a cautious plan, defending close to their own box.
- 7 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Newcastle United- A. ElangaFW · 48 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
- E. JaouenGK · 34 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
V. LivramentoDF · 26 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful- J. RamseyMF · 42 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
- B. ToureFW · 5 goals in 2025/26injurydoubtful
Aston Villa- G. HemmingsMF · 4 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
- I. MaatsenDF · 44 matches in 2025/26ankle injuryout
A. OnanaMF · 38 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout- M. RuggeriDF · 46 matches in 2025/26injuryout
- R. BarkleyMF · 23 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
- I. MbayeFW · 35 matches in 2025/26injurydoubtful
managers: Matthias Jaissle · Unai Emery · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
Newcastle United| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10 | Coventry City | A | 1:4xG 1.9–1.5 | L |
| 19.09 | Hull City | H | 2:1xG 1.4–1.6 | W |
| 14.09 | Leeds United | A | 1:4 | L |
| 08.09 | MillwallEFL Cup | A | 1:0 | W |
| 05.09 | Bournemouth | H | 2:2xG 0.7–1.4 | D |
| 29.08 | Tottenham Hotspur | A | 2:0xG 0.7–1.1 | W |
Aston Villa| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10 | FenerbahçeChampions League | H | 6:0xG 3.1–1.8 | W |
| 10.10 | Brentford | H | 2:2xG 2.3–1.1 | D |
| 02.10 | Sevillaclub friendly | A | 3:1 | W |
| 19.09 | Tottenham Hotspur | A | 3:2xG 1.2–1.6 | W |
| 16.09 | Coventry CityEFL Cup | A | 3:1 | W |
| 12.09 | Nottingham Forest | H | 1:2xG 0.8–2.3 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.7 / 2.2 | 1 / 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1.5 |
| shots | 11.7 / 17.8 | 11.3 / 15.8 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 4 / 5.7 | 3.2 / 5 | 4.5 |
| corners | 4.7 / 5.3 | 2.8 / 4.3 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 11.8 / 11.3 | 10.7 / 12.8 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 2.2 / 2.2 | 2 / 2.7 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| both scored | 83% | 50% | |
| clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 2 / 1.7 | 1 / 2 | |
| average total | 3.7 | 3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| both scored | 100% | 33% | |
- Newcastle United shoot less often than the league average: 11.7 shots vs 13.8
- Aston Villa score less than the league average: 1 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Newcastle United, away games only for Aston Villa
Head to head
5–2–3Newcastle United wins · draws · Aston Villa wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa vs Newcastle United | 1:3 | 14.02.26 | FA Cup |
| Newcastle United vs Aston Villa | 0:2 | 25.01.26 | |
| Aston Villa vs Newcastle United | 0:0 | 16.08.25 | |
| Aston Villa vs Newcastle United | 4:1 | 19.04.25 | |
| Newcastle United vs Aston Villa | 3:0 | 26.12.24 | |
| Aston Villa vs Newcastle United | 1:3 | 30.01.24 | |
| Newcastle United vs Aston Villa | 5:1 | 12.08.23 | |
| Newcastle United vs Aston Villa | 3:3 | 23.07.23 | Premier League Summer Series |
| Aston Villa vs Newcastle United | 3:0 | 15.04.23 | |
| Newcastle United vs Aston Villa | 4:0 | 29.10.22 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 8 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3-0-3 | 9–12 | 9 | LLWLW |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2-2-2 | 10–13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2-1-3 | 9–12 | 7 | LWLDW |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1-2-3 | 5–8 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1-2-3 | 6–11 | 5 | LDLWD |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1-1-4 | 6–12 | 4 | WDLLL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1532
- 16-3000
- 31-4532
- 46-6013
- 61-7531
- 76-9023
- 0-1521
- 16-3002
- 31-4511
- 46-6003
- 61-7520
- 76-9024
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
