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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: AI prediction and betting pick
On 18 October, Nottingham Forest host Arsenal. The AI models' pick is both teams to score — no, at 1.83: 11 of 16 models chose it.
- Premier League, matchday 7 of 38
- +13°, cloudy, wind 19 km/h
- The City Ground, Nottingham
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score — no
1.83Now 1.85 · 1.83 when published
AI models' pick · 11 of 16 for this bet, 5 for others
Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results
likely score
0:0 10%1:0 9%0:1 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 9 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
Match odds
Over 5 days a Nottingham Forest win shortened from 5.81 to 5.68 — money is coming in on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — at least one side fails to score: 1.83 → 1.85 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (at least one side fails to score) has drifted from 1.83 to 1.85: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Yes | No · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88−0.01 | 1.85+0.02 | |
| 1.89−0.01 | 1.83 | |
| 1.90+0.01 | 1.83−0.01 | |
| We published at least one side fails to score at 1.83 | ||
| 1.89−0.01 | 1.84+0.01 | |
| 1.90−0.01 | 1.83 | |
| 1.91opened | 1.83opened | |
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models went for at least one side failing to score. 2 more went for an Arsenal win. The other 3 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and an Arsenal handicap.
- 11 of 16BTTS noour betodds 1.83ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeek
GrokQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-NoteNemotron Ultra - 2 of 162odds 1.62
SonarNemotron Super - 1 of 16U 2.5odds 1.90
Gemini - 1 of 16H2 (−1)odds 2.01Kimi
- 1 of 16H2 (−1.5)odds 2.63Mistral
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 16.10 at 09:20 UTC
Arsenal sit second with 15 points after six rounds, while Nottingham Forest have just five, and the visitors are priced at 1.6. Forest have not scored at home at all this season across three matches, and Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in two of their three games on the road. The last two meetings at the City Ground finished 0-0, in January and in February 2025. With that gap in attacking output, a goal from only one side is the logical expectation, and our pick is for both teams to score to miss out, at 1.83.
Where we could be wrong
And if Arsenal score early? Then the hosts will have to open up, and Forest have averaged 1.7 goals per game in their away fixtures this season, so they can find the net once they commit forward. Arsenal, for their part, have conceded an average of a goal away from home, so their defence has not looked completely watertight on its travels.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Nottingham Forest| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10 | Crystal Palace | A | 1:3xG 3.3–2.4 | L |
| 19.09 | Coventry City | H | 0:1xG 1.1–0.7 | L |
| 12.09 | Aston Villa | A | 2:1xG 2.3–0.8 | W |
| 05.09 | Tottenham Hotspur | H | 0:0xG 0.9–1.1 | D |
| 29.08 | Liverpool | A | 2:2xG 2.3–1.8 | D |
| 25.08 | Leeds UnitedEFL Cup | H | 0:2xG 1.2–2.7 | L |
Arsenal| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10 | LilleChampions League | H | 3:0xG 1.7–0.3 | W |
| 10.10 | Leeds United | H | 2:1xG 2.3–0.6 | W |
| 19.09 | Brighton & Hove Albion | A | 0:3xG 1.6–1.3 | L |
| 15.09 | Ipswich TownEFL Cup | A | 4:2 | W |
| 12.09 | Sunderland | A | 2:0 | W |
| 09.09 | NapoliChampions League | A | 1:0 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.5 |
| shots | 17.7 / 10.8 | 13 / 10.7 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 3.8 / 3.7 | 5 / 3.2 | 4.5 |
| corners | 4.2 / 4.7 | 4.5 / 3.3 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 14.2 / 12.2 | 10.5 / 16.2 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 2.5 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 3.7 | 1.9 |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| both scored | 50% | 33% | |
| clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0 / 0.7 | 1 / 1 | |
| average total | 0.7 | 2 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| both scored | 0% | 0% | |
- Nottingham Forest score less than the league average: 0.8 vs 1.5
- Arsenal score more than the league average: 1.7 vs 1.5
- Arsenal: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Nottingham Forest, away games only for Arsenal
Head to head
2–2–6Nottingham Forest wins · draws · Arsenal wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 0:0 | 17.01.26 | |
| Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest | 3:0 | 13.09.25 | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 0:0 | 26.02.25 | |
| Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest | 3:0 | 23.11.24 | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 1:2 | 30.01.24 | |
| Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest | 2:1 | 12.08.23 | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 1:0 | 20.05.23 | |
| Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest | 5:0 | 30.10.22 | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 1:0 | 09.01.22 | FA Cup |
| Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest | 5:0 | 24.09.19 | EFL Cup |
- both scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6-0-0 | 16–5 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5-0-1 | 10–5 | 15 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4-1-1 | 18–5 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2-0-4 | 5–11 | 6 | LLLWW |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1-2-3 | 5–8 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1-2-3 | 6–11 | 5 | LDLWD |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
Goals by minute
- 0-1510
- 16-3010
- 31-4502
- 46-6013
- 61-7511
- 76-9012
- 0-1511
- 16-3020
- 31-4502
- 46-6052
- 61-7520
- 76-9010
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
