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data updated 17.10 21:23

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Milan vs Atalanta: AI prediction and betting pick

On 18 October, Milan host Atalanta. The AI models' pick is Milan to win at 1.86: 10 of 16 models chose it.

published UTC

Milan
Atalanta

AI models' pick: Milan to win

1.86

Now 1.80 · 1.86 when published

AI models' pick · 10 of 16 for this bet, 6 for others

Our football predictions so far: 86 won · 63 lost · 5 void · +3.46 units All results

Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:112%odds 6.88

2:1 10%2:0 9%1:0 9%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 8 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

Match odds

last line update 17.10 21:19

result11.80 — matches our bet−0.06X3.80+0.1724.34+0.28
total 2.5O1.77−0.01U2.06+0.02
both to scoreyes1.68no2.08
double chance1X1.22121.26X22.00+0.06
handicapH1 −1.53.12−0.10H2 +1.51.37+0.05

Over 5 days a Milan win shortened from 1.86 to 1.80 — money is coming in on the home side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Milan: 1.86 → 1.80 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (a Milan win) has shortened from 1.86 to 1.80: the market now rates it as more likely.

Milan1.86 → 1.80our betDraw3.63 → 3.80Atalanta4.06 → 4.34
1.752.503.004.0012 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 OctWe published · 1.86Atalanta 4.34Draw 3.80Milan 1.80

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenMilan · our betDrawAtalanta
1.80+0.013.804.34−0.03
1.793.80−0.014.37
1.79−0.013.81+0.014.37+0.01
1.803.80+0.034.36+0.02
1.80−0.043.77+0.044.34+0.14
1.84+0.013.73+0.024.20+0.02
1.83−0.033.71+0.044.18+0.10
We published a Milan win at 1.86
1.86−0.013.67+0.034.08+0.03
1.87+0.023.64+0.014.05−0.02
1.85−0.013.634.07+0.01
1.86opened3.63opened4.06opened
70 snapshots · the prices changed 10 times

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models went for a Milan win. 3 more chose close bets in the same direction: Milan −1. 6 more went for at least one side failing to score.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 15.10 at 16:00 UTC

Milan have yet to concede at home this season: two matches there, two clean sheets, and 2.5 goals a game at the other end. Atalanta have lost both of their away trips so far, scoring one goal and conceding two. Six rounds in, the hosts sit fifth with 12 points, the visitors tenth with 9, and the possession numbers tell the same story: 60.5% against 44.8%. Atalanta will also be without defender Isak Hien and forward Kamaldeen Sulemana, so both ends of the side are weakened. Our pick is Milan to win at 1.86, a price that has not moved at all in three days.

Where we could be wrong

The previous meetings point the other way. In the last ten Milan have two wins, three draws and five defeats, and in May 2026 Atalanta came away from San Siro with the win. The visitors also arrive on the back of a victory and have three wins and one defeat at home, so nobody should call this a helpless side.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · how we calculate

Stats and form

Injuries and suspensions

snapshot 15.10 15:43
Milan

no absences listed

Atalanta
  • K. SulemanaFW · 36 matches in 2025/26jumpers kneeout
  • I. HienDF · 39 matches in 2025/26muscle bruiseout

managers: Ruben Amorim · M. Sarri · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first
Milan
Recent matches: Milan
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11.10SassuoloA1:1xG 1.2–1.2D
20.09LecceH3:0xG 2.2–0.2W
16.09BenficaEuropa LeagueH0:2xG 1.0–0.6L
12.09LazioA2:2xG 1.1–2.0D
06.09JuventusA1:1xG 0.1–1.6D
28.08VeneziaH2:0xG 2.1–0.8W
Atalanta
Recent matches: Atalanta
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12.10VeneziaH3:1xG 2.3–2.5W
20.09JuventusA0:2xG 0.6–1.3L
12.09CagliariH1:2xG 1.3–1.1L
05.09RomaA1:2xG 0.7–3.0L
31.08BolognaH1:0xG 0.1–1.1W
27.08Hapoel Tel AvivConference LeagueA1:0W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstMilanAtalantaSerie A
goals1.8 / 0.81.3 / 1.31.4
xG1.5 / 1.21 / 21.5
shots12.5 / 9.213.5 / 19.214.6
shots on target4.5 / 3.54.7 / 5.84.8
corners3.2 / 3.33.7 / 5.54.8
fouls10.3 / 12.310.3 / 9.311.1
yellow cards2 / 1.30.7 / 0.71.7
matches over 2.550%67%
both scored67%67%
clean sheets33%17%
failed to score0%17%
home / away
goals2.5 / 00.5 / 2
average total2.52.5
matches over 2.550%50%
both scored0%50%
  • Milan score more than the league average: 1.8 vs 1.4
  • Milan unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Milan, away games only for Atalanta

Head to head

last 10

2–3–5Milan wins · draws · Atalanta wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Milan vs Atalanta2:310.05.26
Atalanta vs Milan1:128.10.25
Milan vs Atalanta0:120.04.25
Atalanta vs Milan2:106.12.24
Milan vs Atalanta1:125.02.24
Milan vs Atalanta1:210.01.24Coppa Italia
Atalanta vs Milan3:209.12.23
Milan vs Atalanta2:026.02.23
Atalanta vs Milan1:121.08.22
Milan vs Atalanta2:015.05.22
  • both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10

League table

League standings: Serie A
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
4Cagliari64-1-16–313LWWWD
5Milan63-3-011–512WDDWD
6Juventus63-2-19–511WDLWD
9Frosinone63-1-29–710WWDWL
10Atalanta63-0-38–89WLLLW
11Sassuolo62-2-210–108WDWLD

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right

Goals by minute

league season
Milan
  • 0-1511
  • 16-3000
  • 31-4501
  • 46-6000
  • 61-7591
  • 76-9003
Atalanta
  • 0-1530
  • 16-3012
  • 31-4511
  • 46-6011
  • 61-7511
  • 76-9013

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

Full Serie A fixtures
18:45Juventus–LazioOur pick:U 2.51.8812 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.66X 3.872 5.3513:00Fiorentina–ComoOur pick:22.089 of 16 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction1 3.42X 3.682 2.0710:30Udinese–LecceOur pick:U 2.51.8212 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.82X 3.592 4.49